Chance to đŸ§± 4 options twice = 44.5% (5 is 57%)

Bro I have over 100 improvement posts for the game with ones that address things like goblins, cellars, helltides, events, dungeon affixes, ect.

These have nothing to do controversial tempering changes.

Do I need to post my table of contents?

And you are saying I just do that for me?

Why do you judge me so unfairly?

Im very close to muting u. U are being unfair and hateful.

1 Like

I mean if you keep it the way it is those players with the “attitude” will go to better games. If they tweak tempering to be less bad rng stacked on top of already heavy rng weights then these same players will be more happy and it wont effect the people that want it to stay the same. The people that want it to stay as is just want people to be unhappy

I don’t think tweaking tempering will fix it for people who don’t like bricking because bricking will still happen, just less.

I think to make those people happy (this is self serving) They need to filter items in a way that doesn’t involve throwing every item you pick up into a woodchipper and hope it bounces back out.

Agree. I just reached end game, loving the bricking on tempers and softbricking on re-rolling affixes. Great piece of gear, having to stop rerolling affixes at 10 million cost,then trying to pray for good tempers, then it bricks even harder.

This has been an improvment over last couple seasons, but some more tweaking would be nice.

Yes, you do it just for you. How many of the changes are things you think are good for other people but that you personally wouldn’t like? The answer is zero.

Part of your weird behavior (and it is weird - very, very weird) is you trying to mould the game into the game you want - this part is fine. As I said, everyone does it. The other part is you trying to create this weird persona on the forum where you are
 i guess, some influential, popular figurehead of “the community” or something. Maybe you want the green text? I don’t know. It’s like that whole weird thing where you declare iggy “president of the forums” or whatever; that was a great externalisation of how you see the forums as an important part of your ego, I guess.

There are plenty of other people who have post counts as ridiculously high as yours, but let me ask you - how many of them have started remotely close to the same number of threads as you? And why do you think that is? Most people have learned through normal social interaction to temper (lol) their thoughts vs what they present to the outside world. They know that for the 100+ ideas they may have that they think are good, if they spat them out to their collegues or friends people would start rolling their eyes around 10 and telling them to shut up around 20.

It’s now the case that it doesn’t actually matter if you have good ideas or not; you’ve presented so much garbage that unless someone directly agrees with the premise, they just aren’t going to engage with the thread. Hence; Peter and the Wolf.

Ok well I have heard enough. The idea I have 100 improvement posts just to improve the game for just myself is preposterous. I do it for everyone. Anyone doing it for themselves would have given up eons ago.

Also I made an AH support post even though i support D3 trade method so wrong again not 0. :x::x::x:

The notion I think I am high and mighty because of post counts or giving props to Iggy is a lie.

I try to have fun and provide some ideas to balance the salt i give on other times.

You have decided to anoint yourself judge and have judged my ideas as trash and selfish while not even reading them.

You are not worth my time anymore.

You sir truly are Pathological.

:mute:

1 Like

This is the definition of a player problem. When the outcome of player feelings doesn’t meet the mathematical results the problem is the player.

The fact is most people are playing with the current system and only a tiny minority is complaining. That most of those complaints are not based in reality makes it even more of a player issue. Like the person that replied and said 3GA items are rarer than 4/4 items even though it’s been shared on the forums that mathematically they aren’t. People shouldn’t have to constantly reiterate the facts because people “have feelings”. In any other field, a person that ignores reality is looked upon as an idiot, or worse.

Given the circumstances, Diablo 4 is meeting your set expectations but you seem to “feel” it’s not. The only thing that changed is you have to pull a lever a couple times instead of autoplay. You can still win big and you can still fail. The math supports that the game pays out more now and the pots are bigger. So even if you don’t get the highest of the high result you have still won more than before.

Like I said above, you need to fail 33 times to be worse off than before (even though failing is still better than before). So why is that so hard for people to get through their heads? Talk about psychological, people are just in tears because they didn’t win the jackpot the first pull of the lever. And those same people are making post after post after post whining about it.

you are doing good Urza, again I will thank you for it.

Dude he is right. Your posts, your stick, your whole persona are the very definition of cringe.

I can not speak for him but I can understand that i’m a nerd and I enjoy what he is doing. it’s his time and his choice. it’s a pretty damn good thread, in my opinion. this includes ALL the info given from ALL the people here.

EDIT: somehow I edited my previous response instead of making a new response.

No. As I said its not about the probabilities its about what you are getting. The probability could be 100% but if what you are getting is mediocre it still can’t justify the cost.

Since we are talking about ‘expectations’ we can put it into terms of expected values and how it relates to cost.

When determining if something is a good deal or not, or a bad bet or not, you look at the expected value and compare it to the cost.

Diablo is a slot machine. You can pull the lever many ways. The cost of pulling the lever is two parts; time and mental focus.

Typically the cost is mostly invisible as the mechanism for pulling the lever is simply engaging with the action combat system.

You can kill trash mobs 100s or 1000s a minute. Pulling the slot machine lever rapidly and nearly ambiently once you have a good build. It cost almost no time to pull the lever and you don’t even have to think about it. For this its perfectly fine for the odds to be low to get anything worth while. Most of the time you pull the lever you will get nothing. Cool. It cost nothing in terms of mental focus or time and the you have a favorable expected value. You are essentially getting FREE pulls on the lever on the way to better bets (finding elites, activites and bosses).

You can kill elites dozens a minute, they are tougher and more spread out. The may even take some conscious effort and focus. The odds are better, the outcomes are can be better and the expected value is favorable. The lever pull cost more and you potentially get more.

You can kill bosses every several minutes and it may take some mental focus. The expected value can be much greater to make up for this higher cost. You have a much higher chance of getting good rewards with this slow, high cost lever pull.

Now we can look at tempering.

Its cost is high. You are typically only tempering several times and hour and farther into the game maybe only once or twice an hour. Additionally, while you are doing it all you focus is on the process; a boring, uninteresting process unlike the combat system.

The UX is horrible, taking several clicks and navigating a menu each lever pull. Followed by a slow animation that after you see it a few times you wish you could perma skip. Even if the UX was solved its remains an infrequent slow lever pull; It is costly (slow and focus consuming). The expected value needs to be fairly high. But even at a 50/50 chance what you are getting is mediocre to bad.

This is the problem. i.e. The expected value is low and its cost is high. The cost only increases when the real ingame cost comes in the form of rare 3GA items. Its a bad bet.

What is not a problem is tempering delivers its primary goals.
Tempering deffers the rolls of two affixes on dropped items into a targeted rolls. It is meant to raise the quality of loot and decrease the drops.

It accomplishes both those. It absolutely improves the players odds of getting better loot compared to having 5/5 drops.

The difference is 5/5 drops, while having a higher chance of being garbage, don’t cost the player as much as tempering. 5/5 drops will happen constantly and rapidly during action combat. 5/5 drops will happen with little to no player focus required. The lever pull is happening constantly; it is cheap and nearly ambient. The cost in 5/5 drops come in the form of sorting loot.

As a game the players agency in this slot machine is to reduce the cost; making more efficient builds in terms of time to kill, time to boss, and mental effort of play. This is how you make favorable bets in Diablo; By making your character/build an efficient lever puller.

Tempering does not allow this. The cost is always high and the payout is always low. Its a bad bet with an unfavorable expected value.

IMO they need to smooth out the manuals and streamline the UX. After that, review and see where it is at. The system, mathematics, no rerolls/resets can all stay the same. It just needs tuning to increase its expected value. If that doesn’t fully improve it then it needs a way for the player to be able to reduce the cost (time which implies resets or rerolls) to make it a favorable interaction.

I told you I agree with you that most whinning is due player expectations. But that doesn’t mean the system is not without its flaws. I am talking about the flaws it does have as a game system within Diablo.

Sid Meier said (paraphrased) ‘Feedback is fact.’

This is in relation to players saying how they feel. How they feel is true and valuable. WHY they think they feel that way and their suggestion on how things could change to make them feel different a designer can mostly ignore. As most players don’t have a clue.

Most of the people complaining feel they are getting ripped off with tempering. This is important. Why they think they feel that way can mostly be ignored.

I feel that tempering is not a good implementation of pulling a slot machine lever where the cost is time and mental focus. I want to play diablo, where the lever is pulled rapidly and it takes near zero mental focus to actively pull the lever. If I have to think about pulling the lever then it better have a really nice payout.

Good luck.

1 Like

Can you do the math for a hypothetical fix, where each GA adds 3 extra rolls. I think a high chance to brick a 0GA item is OK, as they drop like candy. A 3 GA item is a much rarer drop, and if it got 9 extra rolls, I wonder how much lower the chance to brick will go.

just look at their post history not worth your time

If it is that bad of a bet to make with next to no value, how about you build a bash barb without tempering.

I did the math assuming the fix applied is 3 extra rolls per GA. In the scenario for having to temper a 3GA item for two 5 option tempers, the chance to brick is now 14.1%. This is much much better than 57.7% we now face. If it was a 2GA item, the brick chance is 23.4%, while a 1 GA item has a 37.6% brick chance.

A hypothetical fix of 2 extra rolls per GA will make a brick chance for 3GA item to be 23.4%, and a fix of 1 extra roll per GA will make it 37.6%.

I think a fix of 2 to 3 extra rolls per GA seems just right as you will not be bricking a vast majority of items. Even a 1 extra roll per GA I can live with, as 2 out of three tempering attempts will not brick.

1 Like

Not sure what you mean.

I may have not explained myself very well.

I was talking about expected value of tempering (one system of pulling a slot machine lever in diablo) vs the cost it takes to pull the lever for the player; time, mental focus in addition to ingame cost.

Your specific build very well might depend on the results of tempering, just like they would depend on the results of a blind 5/5 drop. I’m saying the cost of a 5/5 drop is actually cheaper to the player than the current tempering system. Tempering is meant to solve some of the problems of a 5/5 drop (specifically tons of garbage loot to sort through).

While tempering does in fact solve some of the previous loot issues (effectively reducing the mental cost of a 5/5 drop) it has increased cost that outrun its expected value. IMO. Effectively I think it tempering is now MORE taxing to sort through the garbage loot.

When you brick something you are essentially identifying garbage loot.

This was all a repsone to Persuasives claim that all complaints about tempering are whinning that stem from player expectation; an expectation of being given everything guaranteed.

While I agree with that mostly. I do think there are real issues with tempering.

1 Like

The funny bit is that I know for a fact that you will still click that little “show ignored post” link and still read the posts; it’s an extension of your personality type. There’s no way on Earth you could possibly stop yourself :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

no it’s 37.5% at 10 tries total

but for a double 1/3 it’s only 10% vs 24%

2x 1/5 at 10 tries

chances
first:0.19999999999999996
second:0.19999999999999996
[1][1]                         : 0.03999999999999998
[1][0, 1]                      : 0.03199999999999999
[1][0, 0, 1]                   : 0.02559999999999999
[1][0, 0, 0, 1]                : 0.020479999999999995
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]             : 0.016383999999999996
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.013107199999999996
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388607999999999
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 1][1]                      : 0.03199999999999999
[0, 1][0, 1]                   : 0.02559999999999999
[0, 1][0, 0, 1]                : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]             : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 1][1]                   : 0.02559999999999999
[0, 0, 1][0, 1]                : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]             : 0.016384
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.0131072
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 1][1]                : 0.020479999999999995
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]             : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]          : 0.0131072
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]             : 0.016383999999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]          : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]          : 0.013107199999999996
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]       : 0.010485759999999998
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]    : 0.008388608
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]    : 0.008388607999999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.006710886399999999
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0] : 0.026843545600000004
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.0067108864
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0] : 0.02684354560000001
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0][1] : 0.026843545600000008
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.10737418240000007
---
attemps:10
chances
first:0.19999999999999996
second:0.19999999999999996
zero:0.10737418240000007
one:0.2684354560000001
two:0.6241903615999996
useful:0.8926258175999997
bricked:0.37580963840000037
debug:0.9999999999999998

2x 1/3 at 10 tries

chances
first:0.33333333333333326
second:0.33333333333333326
[1][1]                         : 0.11111111111111106
[1][0, 1]                      : 0.07407407407407406
[1][0, 0, 1]                   : 0.049382716049382706
[1][0, 0, 0, 1]                : 0.03292181069958847
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]             : 0.021947873799725653
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.014631915866483769
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 1][1]                      : 0.07407407407407406
[0, 1][0, 1]                   : 0.049382716049382706
[0, 1][0, 0, 1]                : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]             : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.014631915866483772
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 1][1]                   : 0.049382716049382706
[0, 0, 1][0, 1]                : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]             : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]          : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437231
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 1][1]                : 0.03292181069958847
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]             : 0.02194787379972565
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]          : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958155
[0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]             : 0.021947873799725653
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]          : 0.014631915866483772
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958157
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916317
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]          : 0.014631915866483769
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437231
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958155
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]       : 0.009754610577655847
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1]    : 0.006503073718437232
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0, 0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][1] : 0.004335382478958156
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1][0] : 0.008670764957916315
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0][1] : 0.008670764957916313
[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] : 0.017341529915832633
---
attemps:10
chances
first:0.33333333333333326
second:0.33333333333333326
zero:0.017341529915832633
one:0.08670764957916315
two:0.8959508205050044
useful:0.9826584700841675
bricked:0.10404917949499559
debug:1.0000000000000002
1 Like

this is what I meant by try it without tempering. The tempering affixes are way more powerful than affixes pre session 4 besides vulnerable and critdamage in Season 1.

so one could say the expected value is higher than a 5/5 item drop.

Right. I see what you are saying but 5/5 drops with the new affixes didnt exist before loot reborn.

I agree the tempering system increases the quality of items vs blind 5/5 drops. However, I am saying the cost to identify garbage items is much higher with tempering.

Look at it this way. Hypothetically, they could have added loot reborn without tempering. (Not suggesting they should have)

  • 5 affix items drop that include the new temper affixes found in the manuals
  • 3 of those affix could drop GA
  • You could masterwork items

The above is loot reborn with 5/5 drops instead of tempering. You would have the exact same builds you have now. You would just potentially be sorting through more items to get those builds.

But part of loot reborn was trying to reduce the mental effort and clutter of having to sort through lots of drops that will be mostly garbage.

Tempering is meant to solve this by differing two of the affixes to not be determined on drop and instead can be targeted via the tempering manuals.

This does prevent players from having to sort through 5/5 drops.

HOWEVER, there will still be garbage items. Tempering does not exclude the possibility of garbage items.

If 5/5 items dropped you would have to look trough each and determine if it was good or garbage.

In tempering you determine if an item is garbage by bricking it. IMO the mental cost of bricking an item is higher than the mental cost of sorting through 5/5 items.

The chances of getting a GOOD item are HIGHER due to targeting in tempering. Its expected value is better than a 5/5 drop. Tempering delivers on solving that part of the problem; Quality of loot is raised with tempering.

However, the mental cost of determining if an item is garbage is higher in tempering. You have to engage with the tempering system and brick an item to find out if it is garabge.

Tempering didn’t solve that part of the problem. IMO it made it worse. It is more mentally/emotionally costly to find garbage items via tempering compared to just looking through a bunch of 5/5 drops.

In short, I do believe tempering partially solves what it tries to; it increases the chance to get good items via differing two affix rolls and allowing the player to target them.

But it made identifying garbage loot worse than sorting through lots of items. The cost of tempering is too high from a player experience point of view. You still have to identify garbage loot, but you now do so via bricking.

The expected value is higher with tempering vs a 5/5 drop. But the cost to brick an item is MUCH higher than the cost of sorting through 5/5 items. This is why tempering is a bad betl; The cost increased much more than the expected value increased.

Tempering pulls the slot machine lever slower and it cost more mentally to identify garbage loot. In this regard I think its a bad diablo game system in its current form.

P.S.

Going back to Persuassive ‘everyone whinning’ argument. I agree that most tempering complaints are simply about the fact that garbage items are possible. What I am saying is that garbage items being possible is fine and part of the game, but the cost of identifying them has increased drastically and that is the problem with tempering.

1 Like