I have done that before and rerolled and hit a higher roll but only did it once. I am so careful now because my upgrades cost so much.
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I was able to recover a terrible mistake on my behalf but iām not going to lieā¦my hands were sweaty and I was mouth breathing.
the problem with this math is that you assume that you wont roll the same thing 5x which I know you play enough to know how often that happens.
I can chyme in on the necro affixes, they are definitely the most lax, for certain armor pieces anyway. I feel overall my necro has been rather lucky in that sense.
My barb on the other hand, not so lucky as almost every piece of gear requires 2 specific tempered affixes. However, this is according to build guides only, and those assume youāre going to be pushing the Pits as high as you can go.
I personally donāt intend to keep pushing until the end of the season. My goal is simply 100, which I have no doubt Iāll be hitting fairly soon. I just havenāt logged in since the patch.
So realistically speaking if I get 1 out of the two I need for my Barb, theyāll be just fine.
I donāt think it would be that high.
try heartseeker rogue. you need 2 things with 5 random rolls. 4 of them are brick
I figured that out as well! 57% to brick. owie.
Iām good, but thanks for the offer. 
I tried with 12 random bows for a test after bricking 4 really good bows one being a 3x ga. i would get the same bs roll 3-4 times in a row most of the time. We used to be able to pitty craft for a much better chance but they ninja nerfed that as wellā¦ I dont know if they hate their consumers that much i just dont know how to approach it anymore besides refusing to spend money on the shop or buying the dlc
Iām an idiot. I just realize when you say āstart hereā you mean % of people start here. I get what you are saying now.
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I want pathologic to tell me where I went wrongy mcwrongerson!
Nah its on me to explain gudderer.
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Everything wrong, unless taking out or in an element, the probability is not accumulative, your math while true does not represent the independency of each attemp, just like throwing a coin or a dice. Dependent events are ruled by the bayes theorem. Its impossible for us to determine they are using conditionals over results, but thats pretty much not happening due to the computational cost.
Even if youāre not using build guides, common sense dictates that Barb needs exactly rolls for their gear.
Flay Barb absolutely requires Flay Duration and Critical Damage on every weapon. Good luck with that.
Bash Barb absolutely requires Bash Cleave on all weapons. the other piece is a question. if youāre doing Bleed Bash you absolutely need Crit Dmg. If youāre doing normal Bash, You can get away with Close and all the other options are usable except Distant. Whirlwind Barb needs Whirlwind Size, Whirlwind Cast, and Crit Dmg.
I hit good rolls on my second no ga bow and Iām comfortably farming pit 120. 
Getting a good ga bow with good affixes is hard, but also the last chase items you definitely donāt need for anything besides more pit levels.
LOL at all the math experts here taking a piss on the OP and yet not giving the right answer.
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Again, depends on how high you want to push the pits. I was easily doing with 60 Pits with my barb with sub-optimal gear. Now if I want to push those higher pits, Iāll absolutely want optimized gear, thereās no doubt, but again thatās not my goal. My goal is simply Pit Tier 100 at this point.
Illuminate us please. What is the right answer?
How about u enlighten us since you said its all wrong? If you know it is wrong then you must know what is right. IF you dont know what is right then how do you know its wrong???
I admit its not perfect. I did some rounding and such but its within a 2% margin of error I bet!
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Well thats my explanation. Tempering or masterworking are independent events, cant accumulate the probability, thats clear, his maths are accumulating. To make it a little bit easier for you to understand, OP is assuming that being friday has more probability to rain than modays, both are independent rigth?, which is a common mistake, but conditional probability doesnāt work like that.
The thing is that blizzard is doing something else to play with those probabilities and thats easily done, yet obscure for everybody. Is just simple as that.
Anyways I do not recall asking you, I mean nobody, but the guy who posted his claim that all of us are wrong.
Not sure where my numbers are wrong here. Do you have specific example of numbers that are wrong? I am trying to calculate the chance to brick by first calculating how many ppl succeed as a percent at each step of part 1 to start in part 2 with the right amount of rolls left and then calculating how many ppl brick at each step of part 2 for the overall brick chance.
I think If I did this example instead starting with 100000 ppl it would have been better instead of percents of percents. My bad!