Some thoughts and data after killing 100 Rainbows

General Discussion
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I have been collecting some data recently as I have been hunting Rainbow Goblins on the Asia Server, and I thought I would share some of it before I changed my route up.

I killed Lillian on the EU server about 6 weeks ago, and I immediately swapped over to the Asia server and have been recording all my Rainbow kills since then. I made about 500 Rainbow farming runs (estimate based on rainbows killed and average runs between kills) and have killed a little over 100 Rainbow Goblins. I always full-searched the exact same maps in each and every run, with a few exceptions noted below.

I did this to see if Rainbows spawned in certain maps more than in other maps. I will note, that some maps (like the Keeps Depths 3) are short maps and have a very high spawn rate for goblins in general, but they haven’t spawned any Rainbows for me yet in these runs. However, I will probably keep running those maps since I still think there is a good chance for them to spawn Rainbows.

Hopefully someone can make use of this data. I have listed all the maps that I full-cleared in each run. I killed 11 other rainbows during these runs, but I have not counted them below because I did not farm those areas consistently.

Map Rainbows Found Notes
Cathedral 1 2
Leoric’s Passage 3
Cathedral 2 2
Cathedral 3 5
Royal Crypts 3
Weeping Hollow 6
Defiled Crypt 11 (Only the 2 Crypts with 1 floor each can spawn goblins)
Leoric’s Hunting Grounds 4
Highlands Cave 2
Northern Highlands 3
Southern Highlands 1 (Only traveled from the Northern Highlands going south to the Moon Cave)
Cave of the Moon Clan 1+2 8
Halls of Agony 1 4 (I only ran this map in about 1/3 of my runs)
Halls of Agony 2 1 (I only ran this map in about 1/3 of my runs)
Cursed Hold 0 (I only ran this map in about 1/4 of my runs)
Halls of Agony 3 0 (I only ran this map in about 1/3 of my runs)
Stinging Winds 0 (Only traveled from the WP going South to the Black Canyon Mines)
Black Canyon Mines 2
Howling Plateau 5
Sewers of Caldeum 4
Western Channel 1+2 5
Dahlgur Oasis 1 (Only traveled from the WP to the Mysterious Cave)
Mysterious Cave 1+2 3 (Map only spawns in about 1/3 games)
Fields of Slaughter 2
Cryder’s Outpost 1 (Map only spawns in about 1/3 games)
Forward Barracks 0 (Map only spawns in about 1/3 games)
Battlefields 1 (Only traveled to the Caverns of Frost, or north to the Rakkis Crossing if Icefall spawned)
Caverns of Frost 1+2 5 (Map only spawns in about 1/3 games)
Rakkis Crossing 2
Underbridge 1 (Map only spawns in about 2/3 games)
Core of Arreat 4
Keep Depths 3 0
Beseiged Tower 1+2 2
Silver Spire 1 2
Silver Spire 2 0
Pandemonium 1 5 (Always spawns 0 or 2 goblins)
Pandemonium 2 1 (Always spawns 0 or 2 goblins)
Total 101

The biggest unanswered question is: Are Rainbows spawning in certain maps more than others simply because those maps spawn more goblins in general, and therefore more of those goblins are likely to be Rainbows? Or, are Rainbows Just more likely to spawn in certain maps more often, regardless of the goblins spawn rate for that map?

The only way to know for sure would be to record the general spawn rate of goblins in those areas compared to other maps. I had a nice spreadsheet with 100 other runs recorded (but I lost it in a computer crash), and my conclusion was that Rainbows are not more likely to spawn in certain maps more than others, but that it was simply due to certain maps spawning goblins more often than others. But since I lost my spreadsheet, I can not share that data.

Some other notes:

I have gotten the wings twice on the Americas server, and twice on the EU server so far, but have not yet gotten them on the Asia server. I have tried to estimate how often Princess Lillian spawns, but I have just been guessing in the past.

After recording my runs, I think I have been wildly underestimating the number of Rainbows it took to find Lillian. I think the spawn rate seems to be about 1/500 Rainbows, now that I have a better idea of the time it takes to kill 100 Rainbows.

Another metric I can use to estimate the number of runs I have made on the Asia server is that I have always farmed the Caverns of Frost in my runs, and I now have 12 Staves of Herding on the Asia Server. I got my 2nd staff this season after my 81st rainbow kill. So I think that if the trend holds, that means I have made about 3,400 runs on the Asia server, totaling about 285 hrs, and have killed about 485 Rainbows so far. That is just an estimate.

This seems about right when I mentally compare the amount of time I have been hunting on the Asia server in total, to the amount of time it has taken to get each of the other pairs of wings on the other servers.

Before you ask:

I enjoy hunting goblins in general, and spent hours hunting them before they added any of the cosmetics into the game. I kept hunting them after I got the wings, because I find it relaxing. I know that most people hate it, but I enjoy it more than any other part of the game. In order to get duplicated wings, I waited until I got my 2nd Lillian kill before adding the wings to my collection.

The maps I choose to run are mostly just based on my personal preference, and ease of speed running them. I usually (98%) farm solo on T16, and I use a GoD DH with about 608% movement speed max when I have a fleeting shrine. I have Avarice Band and Gloves of Worship on my Enchantress.
https://maxroll.gg/d3planner/989016520. Here is another one that also works well: https://maxroll.gg/d3planner/964572028

Since I recorded each of the Kills on video, I know from looking at the timestamps that on average, it takes me about 42 minutes between Rainbows. So that means about 70 hrs of farming for those 100 kills this season. I expect it takes about 350 hours of solo speed farming to get the wings on average. Each run takes about 14-18 mins for the 35 maps listed above.

Made some edits after comparing hours this season to farming run times.

Americas Server:

EU Server:

Edit 10/14/22: Killed Lillian for the 3rd time on the EU server. (Besieged Tower level 2)

Here is an example run:

After re-watching the video, I missed a Gem gob at 6:38…

This was my 2nd wings on the EU Server just before I swapped to the Asia Server.

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Outstanding presentation, clearly presented and informative. :+1:

This is what the forum should be about not about all of the cry baby trolls. :-1:

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Thanks for the info. I’m sure I will have a use for it when my masochist streak flare up.

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i would just run this one only

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The data might suggest otherwise. If you have to spend more time resetting the game than it takes to make the 15 sec run, how is that better? I can run all 35 maps listed above in about 15 mins.

Maybe that is why so many people get tired of the runs. I would go crazy if I had to run the SAME map 5,000 times.

If you wanted to only hit the 5-10 best maps, you would do a lot better, since it saves time on game resets.

Or better yet, farm in a party, and each person take 1-2 of the best maps, then reset.

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I cannot imagine the time, patience and perseverance needed to do so many mind numbing routes in the hopes of not only getting a goblin, but then getting the rainbow.

You sir are a different breed of gamer.

Good show!

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though according to your data i would say every location that can spawn a goblin has about a 5% chance to spawn one and no location has a better chance then any other, so i would just keep repeating the shortest most efficient one for time to get the most rainbow goblins per hour.

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I agree in principal, but I think you are not using a fast enough speed build. I updated my main post above to include an example video. My Core of Arreat run took 12 secs.

I think the spawn rate for Rainbows is about 1%, but I lost my spreadsheet where I was tracking the spawn rate for different goblin types.

Compare:

You suggest resetting after running 1 map:

Activity Time
Start game and TP 5 secs
Run map 15 secs
TP home 5 secs
Leave game 5 secs
Total for the run 30 secs
Wasted time 15 sec or 50% of the time

I suggest running at least 5 map in a row before resetting:

Activity Time
Start game and TP 5 secs
Run 5 maps 75 secs
TP 4 times between maps 20 secs
TP home 5 secs
Leave game 5 secs
Total for the run 110 secs
Wasted time 35 sec or 32% of the time

My runs:

Activity Time
Start game and TP 5 secs
Run 35 maps 785 secs
TP 20 times between maps 100 secs
TP home 5 secs
Leave game 5 secs
Total for the run 900 secs
Wasted time 115 sec or 13% of the time

If you restricted it to the 10 best maps before resetting, I think it would be a lot more efficient, but it would also be a lot more boring.

But don’t let me tell you what to do. Play any way you like.

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9

Very informative !
One question though.
I’m not sure if I missed it out. What difficulty are you running to farm RBG?

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Always T16. I edited my post above. There are a lot of speed builds that need to run at lower difficulties, but I prefer GoD, which works fine at T16.

I am not in a hurry to get the wings. Even after I get them, I will keep farming Rainbows, because I enjoy it. And when I finally DO get a Rainbow, I want to enjoy all the well-deserved loot.

If you are only interested in the wings and want to run an infinite dash monk or chicken doc and are not interested in the loot, then you will want to run on normal difficulty. Also, most farming parties want to run on normal. Running on T16 slows me down maybe 5%, so I am not worried about it.

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I need to get back to rainbow gob hunting. Both alt and main accounts still need em.

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On a related note, got any data on the rainbow portrait from Whimsyshire?

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I have the portrait on all 3 servers, and it has taken me between 150-300 runs to get it each time.

My recommendation is to look through your achievements for any other rare Uniques, lore books, events, etc that you are missing, and put together a route where you hit 10-15 maps at a time before resetting the game.

That way, you are getting multiple things done in each run, and it is a lot less boring.

Also, as you start to cross things off your list, your route gets shorter, so it seems like you are making progress, and you are less likely to give up.

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Thanks. Every so often I get the desire to try and get the rainbow portrait frame and, as I have a staff of herding in my non-seasonal stash, and that guarantees access (as opposed to the randomness of finding rainbow goblins for the wings) I sometimes throw an hour or two at it. I guess I might have another go in between S24 and S25.

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I made a suggestion a few years ago (before they moved the forums) about making it so that holding multiple Staves of Herding in your inventory should slightly increase the spawn rate of Princess Lillian/Sir William, or Rainbow goblins.

That way, you could at least make measurable progress toward your goal.

For example, if the spawn rate for Rainbows is 1% of Goblins, then each additional staff in your inventory could add 0.1% spawn rate for Rainbows, or the same for Lillian. If the spawn rate for Lillian is 1/500 (or 0.2%), then it could increase by another 0.02% for each Staff of Herding you have in your inventory.

That would incentivize players to farm in a party since the longer you have been hunting, the more Staves you would have, and if everyone brings 10 staves to the party, your chances to get the wings would go up dramatically.

Also, it is not like that would not come with a hefty price. It takes a LONG time and a LOT of work to farm Staves, so you already need to have put in a lot of hours. This way, you would at least be making actual progress toward your goal, and be less likely to give up.

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So, 40 staffs to climb to a 1% chance? Seems like a LOT of work for little gain.

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Think of it like this: 10 staves would double the chance for Lillian to spawn. In a party of 4 people with 10 staves each, you would have 400% higher chance to spawn Lillian.

That seems not too broken to me.

The point is NOT that you should farm staves to increase the chance for Lillian to spawn. But Staves are a byproduct of many, many hours of farming, if you add Caverns of Frost to your route.

If you farm 500 hours and have collected 10 Staves of Herding in the process, why not make the Staves useful, and let them help you in your search? Add something to the game to counteract the RNG for once.

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Checks miscellaneous tab in the non-season stash…
https://i.imgur.com/Jt7xXoJ.jpg
Seems I’d need some mushrooms.

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Posting your image:

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The biggest issue here will be getting a large enough sample size. The variation you are seeing here can easily be explained by chance. Too much variance when you’re only seeing a couple rainbows per zone. Getting one or two more vs. one or two less in a zone by chance can make certain zones look much better than others when in reality that could just be down to the spawns you happened to get.

You’d probably want something like 25+ rainbows farmed in EACH zone compared to total goblins found in each zone before you could start getting somewhat reasonable estimates.

Yeah I’d lean towards this rather than different chances of rainbows per goblin found. Maximizing your overall goblin spawn rate should also maximize your rainbow rate, and is easier to estimate and track since you can get larger sample sizes.

There should be a middle ground.

I optimized by tracking goblin spawn rate (not rainbow goblin rate) since it’s easier to get a bigger estimate. And just assume the rainbow chance per goblin found is the constant for each zone.

Then you can normalize by the time to port to and clear each zone, add a fixed time to each run for leaving and remaking game. Record a few runs and go back and see how much time each zone takes me on average.

So basically normalizing each zone for total goblins/hour found. And use that as a proxy for rainbow chances/hour.

I stopped after a few hundred runs because I was wasting a ton of time doing the tracking when I could just do more rainbow runs!

But when I got a decent sample size, I started to see some trends. Certain zones have noticeably higher goblin spawn rates. And certain zones take a bit longer to clear. In my data, there’s some clear stand-out zones for goblins per hour, and a decent number other zones that are still decent. I focus on the main ones I found to maximize goblins/hour then mix in some of the other decent ones when I just want to change up my runs a bit (you’re definitely right about that being necessary for your sanity in the long run).

It also helps to minimize your port time, so if you can string together a longer stretch of zones to save on port time, that can sometimes be optimal. This will usually mean clearing at least one sub-optimal zone though, so it’s a delicate balance. It doesn’t take much to waste the time you save from not porting and make it inefficient again.

My primary route to maximize goblins/hour from my data:

Leoric’s Manor waypoint → Leoric’s Hunting Ground → Northern Highlands → Southern Highlands → Cave of the Moon Clan 1 + 2

Southern Highlands is considerably worse for goblins/hour in my data, you’re basically just going there to get to the cave.

Cathedral 1 → Leoric’s Passage
Royal Crypts

Sometimes I’ll add in Cathedral 2-4 and run all the way from Cathedral 1 down to Royal Crypts without porting out from Leoric’s Passage to Crypts, but that’s not as good for goblins/hour. Cathedral 2 and 3 are okay (not great, but okay) but Cathedral 4 is pretty bad.

Howling Plateau → Black Canyon Mines

Black Canyon Mines is quite good for goblins/hour because it’s a fixed layout you can search fast with a good goblin spawn rate. Howling Plateau is pretty bad, I just run straight through to the mines.

Eastern + Western Channel 1 + 2

Takes a bit of time, but a chance for up to 4 goblins. I’m a bit on the fence about this one because I’ve never really got the hang of the maps despite the amount of time I spend running the channels. I end up in dead ends a bit too much I think. Exploring every nook and cranny isn’t necessarily bad, but backtracking over stretches you’ve already explored hurts your efficiency. It’s still solid for goblins/hour from my data. But there’s a lot of variance in my run time here compared to the other zones on this list.

Caverns of Frost

I started running this more recently, it wasn’t part of my data collection phase. I stopped collecting data a while ago. It feels pretty good, but I don’t have any data to back that up. Sometimes I’ll just do only Caverns, sometimes I’ll run all the way from the Battlefields waypoint straight through to the end of Rakkis Crossing and do the Underbridge if it spawns.

Besieged Tower 1 + 2

Straightforward layout that’s fast to search, seems pretty decent from my data. I don’t have as much data for this as from other zones as I added it onto my route a bit later, but I’ve had pretty good results here.

Pandemonium 1

Chance to see a goblin is kinda low, but you get 2 goblins when you do so it effectively has double the spawn rate. If it only spawned 1 goblin, it would be quite bad. The double spawn is what makes this zone worth it. Pandemonium 2 also has double spawns but isn’t as good from my data. I did cut Pandemonium 2 from my route fairly early on as it was looking mediocre so I don’t really have enough data to have a good estimate. It does look worse than Pandemonium 1 with the data I did collect though.

That’s my core run, I’ll add in other zones sometimes. Common ones I’ll do are Ruined Cistern + Sewers of Caldeum, Rakkis Crossing + Underbridge, Cathedral 2-4, Towers of the Damned/Cursed + Core of Arreat

A lot of older guides will recommend Tower of the Damned + Tower of the Cursed, but those are actually pretty mediocre from my data. I do them anyway sometimes because they aren’t completely horrible, but they aren’t that great for goblins/hour.

I had it around 3-4% chance per goblin found in my data.

I’m at 441 without a Lillian spawn.

I have a pair of yellow shoulders called ‘Cosmic Wings’. Sometimes I hold those in my inventory to try and increase the spawn chance.

I’ve also made hundreds of Cosmic Strands to try and see if I could get enough strands to sew my own pair of Cosmic Wings, but alas. It didn’t work.

Aha! I see I’m not the only one with a collection of gemstones.

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