The longer I am on these forums the more I wonder about people’s critical thinking skills.
Like it is one thing for you to have to repeatedly post the calculations when people moan about primals but this stuff about “O this set/item just doesn’t drop as often” and similar things… like how are people not aware of the confirmation bias that happens when you are playing a specific build?
It is like those people who are convinced that some kind of critical strike spell in a game never works for them.
That is not because you are getting unlucky pylons, or primals (By the way, you’ve gotten 5 and 2 of them are that good, not much to complain about). That is a combination of gear (you don’t have +cold and a few other unfortunate rolls) and if the current equipped is the one you are pushing with, I believe there are non-ideal skill choices. Also missing some augments. It is a combo of those things.
And I mean, you have 1 200 paragon and acting as if it is a travesty to not be able to do a 130. Like really man.
So have I. I totally swore the upgrade chance was nowhere near 60%. I then tested my hypothesis for a season and with a couple hundred data points, my hypothesis was badly wrong.
Hey, it is a free country. You are entitled to your opinion. Of course it is definitely not fact until you get some real supportive evidence. If you want to actual sway people or prove your point, track 200 or so upgrades at 60% (40 empowered GRs) and let us know your results.
Trust me, I HATE Urshi. She gets far more 4 letter word combo bonus’s from me than Kadala or Myriam combined. Nothing is more devastating to morale than completing a GR in 10+ minutes, upgrading a gem that is 5 levels lower than the GR I just completed, and then failing 3/5, 4/5, 5/5. When this happens, it sticks in my memory way, way better than 5/5 successes, which is the same thing happening to you.
I had bad streaks on 60%, but then I had like 60%, 30%, 15% success one after another…
But yes, us people usually remember the bad streaks, and kinda “forget” about the good ones.
That’s how selective our mind works, and it kinda is based in survival psychology - it is better to remember “bad things” (like don’t play with the neighbors dog, or that and that person doesn’t understand “bad” jokes), so we don’t do those “bad things” again. Or just keep away from them.
This was just a simple example, the root of it is much deeper in our brains/history/genes…
Exactly. And this is why I HATE the Urshi 60%-90% mechanic. In general, I try to avoid it at all costs. If I do not plan on pushing in a season (which is most of them), I never upgrade at anything lower than 100% chance.
This game would play just as well without having such a giant buffet of RNG.
No I do care about the game. I just get sick of every time we have this kind of Topic on rate drop. He throws this crap up in my face about Stats. It is like I’m Stupid and he is the only only one that knows everything.
Let see here been playing Video Games for like 45yrs. Been playing this game from day 1 with 2 accounts and help with two others. But wait I know nothing about the game!!!
Plus by the way how many of these Topic’s do we have every Season. But wait we have go by these people Stats!!!
So he can tell my Grand Daughter about these Great Stats he says to go by!!! She has finish her Altar & Season journey. Plus as I know she still only has 1 Primal so far.
I made a topic espicially for you Davey, trying to be nice and helpful. Primals don’t just drop when they drop. Well of course they do drop when they drop… like they also don’t drop when they don’t drop. But there is a drop rate in some kind of percentage (parts of a percentage of course). In the s32 article ethereals are said to have a drop rate set between ancient and primal. Which is proof that there is a drop rate for all these items. And again; a drop rate is not a guarantee, it’s an average, statistical chance.
Link to the topic:
Playing games doesn’t give you an education on advanced math or make you understand the grasp of statistics and weight of possibilities. Game may have intricate mechanics to reward the player when situation calls for it, or not. When something simulate total randomization with a pseudo-random number generator you can hardly tell the difference, nor can you confirm the existence of complex underlying mechanics; so don’t act like you are an expert on randomization either.
In case you need to vent, there are personal blogs for sharing your theories. Please stop digressing each and every thread subject to be about yourself or how you would make the randomization better without any sliver of understanding what it is or how it is coded.
A website, associated with an add-on that no-one should have been using, recorded the drops of legendary and set items for the users of said add-on and published the rate at which standard legendary, ancient legendary and primal ancient legenday items dropped. (They even had a nice little pie chart showing them)
This amounted to tens of millions of results every day, and they had many years of results, i.e. their data pool was literally billions of items. The drop rate of primals, in a statistical sample of BILLIONS of data points, put the Expected Value at 1 in 400.
You’re not arguing against me.
You’re arguing against the results of a sample that has BILLIONS of data points.
Drop rates are a thing. Just about everything in this game has a different probability of dropping with different attributes and stats based on several factors. Games use loot tables. It’s a fact. A level 70 item does not have an equal probability of dropping for a level one player as a level seventy. Likewise, a particular class of item has a different probability of dropping for each class of player. You don’t need any math to know that. This idea that every item has an equal probability of dropping is absurdly wrong. As the saying goes all things being equal, they never are.
Jovison, it’s all rng. You gotta gen on your gaming knees and pray to the ALL MIGHTY RNGZUS!!! Even then, you may not be blessed with a bounty of primals. However, it doesn’t hurt. Who knows, you may get lucky.
Edit. I have also gone many days, even more than a week, and have done many bounties, rifts, greater rifts, and vision portals without seeing a primal. Heck, same thing has happened without seeing an ancient legendary. ALL RNG. There have been times when I get a ton in one day. MOAR RNG. It’s a thing. Sometimes it sucks (especially when you only get crappy primals), but sometimes it jaw dropping awesome.