That’s pretty much exactly what we do.
Hmm, so let’s see…
Before it ever got nerfed, Fire Inna’s peak was an adjusted 151.6. For Earth, it’s 150.8, and for Water, that top clear on EU is 150.5. Next best for Water is 149.4… that’s still pretty good. And 1.1 tiers difference is definitely within the range of “just got a really good rift”, doesn’t need to be Illu Nightmares or anything like that, though of course that’s possible.
Earth and Water are both getting -7.2 tiers in this patch, which leaves them at 143.6 and 143.3, respectively.
Fire, compared to its pre-pre-nerf peak, is -7.2 (current change) and -2.9 (Bracer changing from 11x multiplier to 7x), or -9.9 total, which ought to leave it at 141.7.
So it sure looks like Fire will be more consistent and less fishy than Earth or Water (because of its single-target damage), but overall 1-2 tiers weaker.