Let’s fire up the statistics calculator… https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/binomial-distribution?c=GBP&v=probability:0.25!perc,type:1,n:999,r:5
Number of events = 999
Probability of success per event = 0.25%
Probability of getting 1 or more successes = 91.80%
Probability of getting 2 or more successes = 71.26%
Probability of getting 3 or more successes = 45.57%
Probability of getting 4 or more successes = 24.176%%
Probability of getting 5 or more successes = 10.824%
At GR90, you’re getting 12 legendaries per GR run, and should be able to run those in under 5 minutes per run at this stage of the season. That means 12 runs per hour, or 144 legendaries per hour. 999/144 = 6.9375. So, you have over 90% chance of getting a primal every 7 hours. If you play an hour a night, that’s better than 90% chance of one a week. Seasons run for roughly three months, so that’s 13-14 weeks, which means 90% of 13-14 primals if you play GRs an hour a night. We’re about 10 weeks into the season, so you’d expect around 10 primals by now. Three of your accounts had 8, 9 and 11. Sounds about right to me. The one with just 3 drops is unlucky, but not broken. That’s standard deviation for you.
The problem here I don’t just run 90 GR. I run everything t16 Rifts, GR’s and t16 Bounties. I don’t go by the statistics that people keep going by. I go by what I get in a season.
So in the last 3 or 4 season I have avg between 20 to 25 a season on both accounts. Plus season 19 I got 36 on one of them. I play the same way every season too. I haven’t play any different this season that I did in any other season.
I don’t play t16 GR’s I mostly play T12 GR’s. So I’m doing most of the time between 65 to 85 on GR’s.
So let see here I had got 3 primals all season on my Davey account. But in the last 6 hrs I have got 4 of them and in less 200 to 250 drops too. Plus in that time I got two unless In-Geom back to back running a DH. That was with in maybe 50 or 60 drops too.
So what the Primal God feels bad for me and has started dropping for me OK Right.
i’m going to refer you back to Meteorblade’s comment:
what you’re doing right now is telling us over and over that you don’t understand statistics and apparently refuse to. you don’t have to understand statistics, but since you don’t, why would you go around telling people something you don’t understand is wrong? i really don’t know how to explain it any more simply than Meteorblade already tried with the coin flip analogy.
the odds of a coin flip being either heads or tails is 50%. that doesn’t mean every time you flip a coin 100 times you will get heads exactly 50 times and tails exactly 50 times. you could flip a coin 100 times and get 100 results of heads. that doesn’t change the expected value of a coin flip.
It’s not that rare. Even for some of the hardest items such as the Flavor of Time, it’s about 1 in 210 chance of an optimal one (element, crit chance, crit damage, cdr, socket) provided it’s a primal (and thus 100% socket).
I have to laugh at this. Let see here have 2 accounts been here from day 1. Plus help my 10 yr grand daughter with hers. Have 90 people in my clan. Plus help almost every one at one time or another. But by you telling me I have no clue about the statistics of the game.
Blizzard never said any thing about drop rate did they? There is no real guarantee that you even get 1 other than the solo GR 70. I have even heard people say that they never got one doing their 70 too.
So tell me that one time I got 4 with in 15 mins at the cube? Tell why I got 4 with in 6 hrs and not 6hrs playing time either. Just over 6hr time at maybe 250 drops too. Tell me on this an happen to me many times too. I do a run get one do a couple more runs and get another one. How does these play into your avg and statistics?
Primals drop when they drop. The stuff you get is by luck and not avg and statistics. There is no real guarantee that you ever get any thing in the game you really want is there?
It’s perfectly normal for there to be famines and feasts in the number of drops you get. That’s due to standard deviation. Something you’re ably demonstrating that you do not understand.
Once you complete your first Solo Greater Rift 70 for the season then any Legendary you see will have a chance to become Primal. It doesn’t matter what difficulty you are in, but the higher difficulties does have a higher chance to drop more Legendaries. Ex: Primals can drop in Torment 6.
At lease he is searching the forum VS making a new Topic. Where in the rules say he can’t post to a topic that 2, 5 & 9 months old?
The search function at the top of the community site is extremely effective and robust. Before you create a new forum topic, we recommend using search for similar topics, blog posts, or web pages that may contain the information you seek. Making a new thread on an existing subject can result in your thread being deleted.
So if Blizzard didn’t want US not post to a older Topic they have it in their Rules!!!
He isn’t bumping the thread. He is adding to it. If you know any thing about forums. That is put in to place more for the OP than any body else. But I forgot I’m talking to the Diablo Forum God here know all tell all !!!
