Well I’m on almost 10 hours of farming drop and still nothing, this really feels bad, especially when we see that someone drops it after just 2 hours. After that it’s just psychologically exhausting.
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Hey, im just chimming in to explain why you are wrong. Odds are odds. Period. To keep it simple, a 5% chance is like rolling a 1 on a simple 20 sided die. Odds do not stack. So if i roll this die 1 million times its ABSOLUTELY possible that I could never roll a 1, unlikely, but possible. Thats why its called “luck” and why you just have bad luck. To help you grasp some fun ones, in some pokemon games the odds of a shiny are 1 in 8,000. I have hunted and gone over double those odds. In the new dynamax adventures with bonuses we got a 1 in 25 shiny odd. I have done hundreds with no shinies. Now, why is that you ask? Well because every time i did it, it rolls that die (in this case a 25 sided die) 1 time, if it doesnt match the exact number then no shiny. In short. It is not mathematically impossible, just unlikely.
Correct odds do not stack, but your chance of success drastically increases with more attempts. If he ran it 250 times at a 5% drop. 1-(1-.05)^250 would give you .9999973029% chance. This would correlate to a 0.0000026981% chance of not getting the desired result. While yes, it is not mathematically impossible to never get the desired result, he is pointing out there is something wrong with the coding if a developer has said it is a 5% drop chance. Through math, multiple people have proven this drop chance is most likely either not correct, or there is a bug. I am also currently sitting at around 400+ kills with no drop. He might be extremely unlucky, but multiple people reporting the same extremely low drop rates is suspicious.
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bad luck is still enough to make people rage when its not end game but required for end game…
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Spent 2 days straight (a few hours a day). Definitely didn’t count, but say about 200+ kills and finally found it. I’m not saying this will 100% help you, but I put on a Nagerling and found it on the first try. Every bit helps I guess? Anyways, good luck!
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RNG. I farmed with a friend and found 5 before they got their first one.
In the past, I have had to make over 500 runs to get it.
If I had to guess, I would say it is not strictly based on a % chance to drop, and that there is something else involved.
It is possible that it only drops when Act 3 is the starting home town, or something silly like that. So if someone only farms it at a certain time of day, then they will never see it. Who knows.
My friend and I farming together and me getting 5 while she got 1 does not support this theory, though. It DID drop for her, so her account was not “bugged”.
Maybe she has a low chance because she bought her account when it was on sale?
9 hours already and counting… still no drop… thanks blizzard for wasting my time.
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Try a lower difficulty. Drop rate has been reported to be worse at higher torment levels. (unconfirmed)
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burn in hell dev! 3 days of farm and sill dont get it!
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Killed Chiltara about 300 times now and no drop, my friend kills it 2 times and gets it… i know it is 5% drop rate, but this is making me want to quit diablo, infact i will not be returning to this season as i hope diablo 4 has this sorted out and i am hoping to go to diablo 4 with an open mind and not annoyed at the fact i simply could not progress due to the fact i had got burned out spending 4 evenings (3 hours each evening) just searching for a cave… i loved the new season until i had to keep running into a cave and leaving to gain alter progression… it is the most pointless thing the game has ever had, and i loved this season…
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A Dev needs to look into this… cannot believe there are players leaving the game due to the fact that they cannot progress any further in the game?? its so unbelievably stupid, and frustrating right before diablo 4 comes out…
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cannot believe ive just spent another 3 hours this evening searching for this, just joining searching for caverns of frost, leaving cause its icefall caves, and just repeating, outstandingly annoying and something that should not be in D4… have never had a point in which something so small is 100000% stopping you from playing the GAME! My other friend has just got it in 30 mins, should i make a new character or something???
I got it after 7 CoF. Do the campaign trick. If you get CoF there, Chiltara is 100% guaranteed to spawn vs. Adventure where she isn’t guaranteed.
As others have said, this is a bug report page, not a help page. Bad drop rates are not a bug.
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Not 100% chance I did the campaign and got nothing out of it. I don’t mind grinding items 5% chance drop its fine by me, but what about the other UNKNOWN % chance that there might not be a frost cavern at all?? Can they at least make it where the frost cavern its always there then all I have to deal with is a 5% chance on kill. Same thing with the other quest, the merchant might not even be outside the mysterious cave and then another unknown % chance on the chest not to be there at all… Like that is a whole lot of repetitive bullsh!t.
100% chance that Chiltara will spawn, NOT that she drops the GG, if the CoF appears. You don’t have that in Adventure Mode.
That also applies to Adventure Mode, so not sure the point you are trying to make.
Well no the cave not been there also applies to campaign just checked it, the first time I did campaign the frost cave was there and chiltara as well but just now it was icefall caves instead. Its the same both adventure or campaign. You were just one of the lucky ones buddy.
I guess you didn’t read my comment.
Missed the word ‘if’, did ya?
Not gonna belabor the issue, you do what you want.
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Bad luck is bad luck ?
True absolutely true
Can bad luck can be suspicious or even a bug ?
Yes…
RNG is never a “true” RNG in informatic, it uses things to define what people are getting.
It is not really like rolling a d100 IRL so. there are things in the game code to generate this RNG.
When a player is around or under 1 per 1 000 000 chance to have this luck or bad luck, we clearly can begin to consider “suspecious” and if it is not bug, there is a design flaw (mercy system needed as said earlier … even more on mandatory things)
Now a last thing. do we have a past example of RNG “bug” on blizzard side ? yes it happened, blizzard said “no” people gathered a large amount of data to prove blizzard false, and blizzard ended to admit there was problem, and solved it. This problem was not even global because some people (not so rare) had not this problem of legendaries drop rate… (i was one of those lucky one). Same problem as there, but inverted (the lucky guys were the true anomaly)
(legendaries drop rate past first in early legion expansion)
Here there are various people with a similar problem, the rare occurence of 1 over 1 000 000 … It is hard to believe that 3-4 (more?) people speaking here on the forum have a so rare bad luck that there isnt any problem… AND if it is pure badluck, speaking about it there with so much people with the same problem seems like at least blizzard should add a mercy system on those drops.
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Chiltara can be a bit of a troll. When you kill her, and hear the “ding” of a droppped legendary - oh noes, it’s an axe. 
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