Cosmic wings are rare thats one thing we can all agree on. How rare nobody really knows apart from D3 creators, but we can speculate.
I see from a previous post that certain players beleive that Rainbow goblins have about a 3 percent chance of spawning (some would agree that there is one created in every game instance of D3 so we can also run with the speculation that if you were to farm a known and economical route you would have a 3 percent chance of finding one but there is one somewere in the game 100percent of the time).
This post also states that the spawn rate of Princess Lillian is between 1 and 5 percent. So lets just say Princess Lillian’s spawn rate is 5 percent.
And that Lillian is guaranteed to drop Cosmic Wings 100 percent of the time.
So what we end up with is a formula:.
3=chance of Rbg spawning/locating.
5=chance of Lillian spawning.
100=Cosmic wing drop rate if previous criteria are met.
3Ă·5=0.6
Now im no mathmatician and most likely someone can refine my formula. But as far as i can tell a player has a 0.6 percent chance of finding Princess Lillian and securing a pair of Cosmic wings.
Id like to know what people think. Did i goof up my formula?. Can someone do better?.
Please add in your replies If you have or have yet to locate yourself a pair of these mystical wings. I found mine 2 days ago.
Assuming the 3% and 5% are correct, the math should be:
.03x.05= .0015 or 0.15%
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Princess Lillian’s spawn rate is definitely not 5%.
It’s almost certainly more like 1%.
I ran my 334th and 335th rainbow portals last night. Still no Lillian for me.
If it was 5%, I would have a 0.95^335 = 0.0000034% chance to not have Lillian spawn after 335 portals.
If it was 1%, I would have a 0.99^335 = 3.4% chance to have not Lillian spawn after 335 portals. That seems more within the realm of possibility.
A number of my rainbow hunting friends got them somewhere in the 100-200 portal range. And a few over 300 like me. 1% spawn rate (or less) seems much more likely based on that. Admittedly anecdotal, but it’s exceedingly unlikely that she’s a 5% spawn rate if numerous people are still without wings in the 250-300+ portal range.
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Yeah bro i understand. Like i say this isnt really my veiw as no one really knows the spawn rate. Im only speculating on information i found in a previous post.
Been chasing them since their introduction … They are still a myth and the last eluding cosmetic to drive the ominous(math chance %) grind forward.
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Many of us still get a rainbow goblin and think “Maybe this time”.
I’d be more inclined to think if you add the RNG of the Goblin with the RNG of Lillian, it has to be below 0.1%. Most players have got at least one primal in a consistently played build and that is apparently 0.1% RNG.
If someone can confirm that a rainbow goblin is available somewhere in one place of the five areas every login, that would be good to know.
I found mine 2 days ago after 7600 para
https://ibb.co/XxdDh3C
Found mine not yet, Para 4519. To Para 7600 is a long way to go for me 
I’ve had mine for a while. It took forever. Like 3 rbg’s total.
Idea - A Bounty that can spawn in any Act to Kill Princess Lilian (Perusoe idea below)
The Problem - This may be seen as devaluing other players accomplishment of finding the Wings under current conditions. However, it can be said that other unique monsters and events have been made more easily found over the years by their inclusion in bounties. After four years of searching (2.4.1 April 2016) is it time for a change of the process? I would like to think it is in some way.
As a side note if past season cosmetics - pets , pennant or wings could be included in the menagerist goblin drop table this would be cool. Thanks
Or…
Add a Bounty that can spawn in any Act to Kill Princess Lilian.
- When you arrive at the Waypoint, a yellow arrow on the mini-Map will point the location of the Rainbow Goblin. When you kill the RBG and enter the Portal to Whimsydale a yellow arrow on the mini-Map will point to Princess Lilian’s location. Kill Princess Lilian, get your Cosmic Wings, finish your kill-count and Bounty Completed.
(Just in case anyone missed it: I’m kidding)
Can I get cosmic wings with “staff of Herding” ? 
Nope, you can only get the rainbow portrait
I have a different idea to minimally help with rbgs spawns while not making it too common. During the double goblin event that is usually every other season make all ancient realm of greeds have the ability the spawn an RBG. Keep the spawn rate the same as normal. Also make Ancient realm of greeds spawned with a primal puzzle ring have a greatly increased chance at spawning an RBG. This would also help the least popular theme become more valuable.
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I always thought they should make a new cube recipe where you can use a Spectrum or Horadric Hamburger to open a rainbow portal too.
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Unfortunately it’s an wrong as itself. Chance to not have is constant even with 100k non succesfull runs. Because past events has only 2 probabilities: 0 and 1
