From my understanding, it’s 1/31 chance of getting a SoJ when a unique ring drops from Andariel. I have now farmed 62 unique rings from Andy and seen 0.
By my math: (1 - (30/31) ^ 62) * 100 = roughly 87% chance that I should have seen one by now. Have the drops been ninja-nerfed such that she doesn’t drop them anymore, or am I just incredibly unlucky?
Prior to focusing on nightmare andy, I had farmed 43 unique rings in hell, also seeing 0 (I understand the droprate is considerably worse in hell). But, by my math I’m somewhere in the ballpark of about 94% likely to have seen at least 1 drop by now.
This seems excessive. I like for games to be fun, but to be repeatedly disappointed just makes it feel like work…
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Apprently your roll has been at the other 13% all these time.
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Sample size way too small to draw any conclusions other than tough luck.
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This your first time on Diablo 2? RNG is terrible. If you are wanting the gg items to drop 87% of the time, might I suggest Diablo 3?
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No, I want the gg item to drop at least 1 time out of the total 105 rings that I id’d. That is a far cry from gg item dropping “87% of the time”. Turns out I just had incredibly bad luck, it seems.
Learn to math, sir.
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Your math indicate that you have been on the 13% chance of not getting anything these whole time
Sometimes luck happens…in the last month I have found deaths web, darkforce spawn, azurewrath, jah and ber…these are all some of the rarest items in the game with deaths web on tyraels might level almost
Been looking for a Jah, where did yours drop?(pun intended).
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Hell andy is the best way to get soj
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RNG is tough, everything is chance-based and every time is a dice roll. Personally, I’ve only found myself only one SoJ to date, starting with 1.09 back in the days. Yet, I found Death’s Web and the chances of a drop from Pindle for this item is 1:155413 (A SoJ from Nightmare Andariel is 1:3813 in comparison).
So you can be extremely unlucky for some items and extremely lucky for some others. I know some people on this forum who never dropped Occulus, while I have found like 10 of those within a few months and sell them at Charsi at this stage. And some other people found like 3-4 SoJs since D2R launched… so yeah, RNG is tough. Be patient, or trade 
False. NM andy can only drop 3 unique rings, Nagel’s, Manald, and SOJ. Hell Andy can drop more, so you have a lower chance of getting the one you want when a unique drops.
This is just bad luck.
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I’m afraid it’s just bad luck. I’ve had similar stints of bad luck looking for amulets and rings myself.
I assumed it was luck, but was hoping that perhaps maybe there was an announcement I missed about how drops were rearranged or something. The last thing I wanted to do was farm another 62 rings if this whole time the item had been removed from her drop table or something.
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Based on how you want announcement and things like that I really have to think you don’t even know how loot dropping in this game.
I think my math was quite clear regarding the expected droprates vs my experience. Perhaps, if my math is off you could leave a helpful post explaining where my error was.
Or just continue leaving insults. Either way, I really don’t care.
Sadly, as you’ve discovered, whlie the cumulative odds are low that you don’t find an SoJ after that many rings, each individual roll (drop) is still tied only to that particular instance and is not cumulative. Such is the nature of RNG, and in this case, heavily weighted RNG.
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In my experience, you will get one in about 200 runs.
There is something called The Gambler’s Fallacy where people think that past failures will guarantee future success. Like past failures have a powerful effect to force future successes. But what most don’t know is that you never leave that original chance to fail.
Take a fair coin for example, you can possible have 25 heads in a row. Even though it isn’t likely it can happen because you never leave that 50% chance of it being heads.
One question are the numbers you give average? Because if they are then that still doesn’t count as far as the true drop rate of that ring. Because you have to get into the meat and potatoes of her drop rate on rings in general.
Welcome to statistical probability.
Meanwhile, remember there is that person that the first unique ring that dropped was your soj
Makes me feel warm and fuzzy.
The RNG for this game is crazy, its like RNG on RNG.
To counter your bad luck, my anecdotal experience is complete opposite. I got SOJ from first unique ring drop from NM Andy when I planned my first farm session. It dropped on run 11. I was planning 100 runs, but after the drop I went up to run 50.
On the flip side, when it comes to High runes I have 0 luck. Been doing endless cows, chaos and baal runs for months now and nothing, yet some folks get a Ber in 5 cow runs.
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