WoW's decline slowed at some point.

Community General Discussion
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Disclaimer because apparently people can't be bothered to read beyond the URL:
This isn't a prediction. This is just for fun, to see where we'd be today if a trend had continued indefinitely. We know it didn't do that. Even if this were 2+ years ago we'd know the trend would have slowed at some point. Just did this out of pure curiosity.

I grabbed the sub graph posted on MMO-Champion including the last officially released sub count during WoD, extended it, and threw in an estimated line of best fit starting from where the decline did at the beginning of Cata.

https://imgur.com/a/p9EidRG

I'm assuming the WoD spike was simply an outlier due to nostalgia hype, which seems to be backed up by the next 2 data points.

If the trend had continued indefinitely, the game would be at 0 subs right around today.

I know that's unrealistic and that it's natural for the decline to slow down as we approach 0, and I know Legion was the first expansion with a lot of content that used traditional Warcraft lore after Cata so it likely slowed the trend down on it's own, but I thought it was just an interesting tidbit.
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I have no clue why that graph is used as a reliable resource. For anything.
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Literally no one is playing right now.

Not even me... -___-

Do me a favor OP, stay off the math team for the space program.
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So.. if I'm reading it correctly.. you plotted the rate of decline if it remained as it was calculated when we had our last data point (in WoD)... which would have led to wow being truly 0-sub by now... but since it hasn't, there must have been an upcline at some point?

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing overall, just trying to make sure I'm reading your graph and argument correctly.
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10/30/2018 01:25 PMPosted by Akston
I have no clue why that graph is used as a reliable resource. For anything.

Err, because unlike MMO-Champion's other graphs, the sub graphs are based on factual data from Blizzard back when they still released these numbers.

10/30/2018 01:27 PMPosted by Therric
Literally no one is playing right now.

Not even me... -___-

Do me a favor OP, stay off the math team for the space program.

That's not what I was saying, obviously.

Just thought it was an interesting bit of "What if" information.

10/30/2018 01:28 PMPosted by Snowfox
So.. if I'm reading it correctly.. you plotted the rate of decline if it remained as it was calculated when we had our last data point (in WoD)... which would have led to wow being truly 0-sub by now... but since it hasn't, there must have been an upcline at some point?

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing overall, just trying to make sure I'm reading your graph and argument correctly.

Yep, this. I don't expect it actually went up at any point beyond the usual stuff with big patches and expansions, but the decline definitely slowed somewhere along the way.
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The graph is an interesting historical curiosity but meaningless for predicting future subs.

Subs don't decline or increase in a linear pattern.
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10/30/2018 01:31 PMPosted by Mistwynd
The graph is an interesting historical curiosity but meaningless for predicting future subs.

Subs don't decline or increase in a linear pattern.

I would argue that it more or less was linear at least as far as that graph goes. Just some expected changes along that path due to patches and expansions.

I agree it's no good for predicting future subs though, I'm not predicting anything, just pointing out how it could have gone if the graph kept going in a similar direction forever.
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10/30/2018 01:28 PMPosted by Sechi
10/30/2018 01:25 PMPosted by Akston
I have no clue why that graph is used as a reliable resource. For anything.

Err, because unlike MMO-Champion's other graphs, the sub graphs are based on factual data from Blizzard back when they still released these numbers.

10/30/2018 01:27 PMPosted by Therric
Literally no one is playing right now.

Not even me... -___-

Do me a favor OP, stay off the math team for the space program.

That's not what I was saying, obviously.

Just thought it was an interesting bit of "What if" information.

10/30/2018 01:28 PMPosted by Snowfox
So.. if I'm reading it correctly.. you plotted the rate of decline if it remained as it was calculated when we had our last data point (in WoD)... which would have led to wow being truly 0-sub by now... but since it hasn't, there must have been an upcline at some point?

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing overall, just trying to make sure I'm reading your graph and argument correctly.

Yep, this. I don't expect it actually went up at any point beyond the usual stuff with big patches and expansions, but the decline definitely slowed somewhere along the way.


The graph is based on WoW being in a vacuum after WoD. And nothing changing. The mere fact its so hilariously wrong at this point completely discredits it as a resource.

Its a joke that needs to be taken out back and put down.
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10/30/2018 01:24 PMPosted by Sechi
https://imgur.com/a/p9EidRG


You know, i was imagining somebody just drawing a straight line down just for a gag before clicking in.

I'm surprised the line is a straight near 20-35 downward slope.
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10/30/2018 01:35 PMPosted by Akston
The graph is based on WoW being in a vacuum after WoD. And nothing changing. The mere fact its so hilariously wrong at this point completely discredits it as a resource.

I'm talking about the original graph when I say it's based on actual data from Blizzard.

My edit isn't supposed to be predicting anything, just showing where it could have gone if the trend continued (but given that we're still here, we know it didn't, and even if we weren't here yet, logically we know it would have slowed down at some point barring some major incident).

I'm not predicting anything and never said I was, it's just for fun more than anything else.
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The graph is strangely shaped like a product lifecycle graph.

Hmmm....
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i loled