Not my writing but does this 2011 article hold water?
This post is split into 2 parts. First my theory on the problem, then my post on how to fix it. If you just want the solution just read the second post
Intro:
Blizz you have a problem on your hands. Random bgs are not fun. Alli doesn’t like them because they lose way more often then they win. Horde players aren’t likely to complain about winning all the time but they might about the queue times. Furthermore everyone would agree that close hard fought matches are more fun for everybody.
First we need to define our central question underlying our problem: Why do horde win more frequently at random battlegrounds, when there are no qualitative differences between the factions (after the addition of shammy/pallies to both)?
Well start by addressing the incorrect/ incomplete theories
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horde play better in battlegrounds. In all likelihood this is true. Horde play better at battle grounds and this translates to more wins. However this doesn’t actually answer the central question: why do horde play better and win more?
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horde are better geared for battlegrounds. In all likelihood this is also true. Horde win more because they have better gear. And AGAIN, this doesn’t answer our central question: why are horde better geared for bgs?
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map differences. I have heard many theories on AV being an alli map, and AB being a horde map. these theories may infact be true about individual bg maps but it doens’t explain the overall trend of horde dominance when considering all bg’s together. This theory would only work if there was a horde advantage in every map; which brings us to our next incorrect theory:
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blizard secretly has a preference for horde. simply put this makes about as much sense as saying blizzard loves X-Y or Z class. blizzard has every incentive to make pvp fun and balanced so more people subscribe, more people pay salaries etc etc.
My theory:
- More horde players want to pvp. The central reason why more pvp-ers chose horde was originally probably due to the “feel” of the faction cosmetically. Orcs/Undead/Trolls: are all ugly races that have a real great edge. The rebel/ darkside appeal of the horde also likely appealed to a more college-age crowd that was more likely, demographically speaking, to want to pvp. This seemingly small distinction led to powerful self selection.
What is self selection? A seemingly imaginary divide (faction) becomes a real difference, because people are playing with different goals. More players on horde want to excel at pvp, so they work on their pvp gear more singlemindedly. Furthermore, the higher percentage of horde that want to make pvp the focus of their wow experience, elevates the play of the average horde player.
- Self selection begets more self selection, and the snowball leads to an avalanche. As it becomes widely known that horde wins more bgs more players that want to pvp choose horde, or even switch factions. Even after horde and alliance were more balanced cosmetically (gave ugly races to alli (worgen; draeni, gave pretty races to horde; bloodelves) the damge was already done in terms of self selection and alliance was already losing badly.
Furthermore new alli players were disincentivised to pvp because they lost all the time. And finally, more players were willing to play poorly because “What the heck we are more likely to lose anyway”
Some supporting evidence:
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The horde have longer pvp queue times, despite not having significantly higher numbers of players. In fact, it is possible horde have significantly less players according to unofficial census data. This indicates that per capita, there are more career pvpers on horde.
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The relative parity of rated bgs, pre-made match ups and twink games (where everyone clearly is dedicated to pvp). This supports my theory because it shows that when self selected pvp-ers face off, faction means little.
