I’m so confused, some people saying they waited 4 hours, 8 hours, 12 hours to see that rare NPC. Last days i jumped into the Maw hole in the Oribos to do daily quests in MAW. I suddenly saw the fallen charger in front of the Venari refugee and 2-3 people were killing it. I killed that rare NPC and got the mount from the first try. And the next day I jumped into the Maw again , I saw that horse again as soon as i got into the MAW just like last time in front of venari refugee.
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They may have changed it recently because I see that message nearly every single time I’m in the maw.
I’m also a member of the first try club. Feels good.
This is less about finding out the spawn timer and more about bragging they got the mount first try. 
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It’s transparent to the point of being sad. My guess is they spent the next hour sitting in front of the refuge or in Korthia on it, just hoping people would notice.