Outside of the very earliest level of keys, 3 chesting isn’t very common. Small mistakes and a death here or there used to be the differences between a 3 chest vs 1-2 - now, even very organized/well executed runs tend to be +1s, with sometimes a single mistake, death, or wipe, bricking the key.
+1-2s are for those runs that don’t necessarily go well but yea they weren’t perfect so you don’t get that +3. Seems like the threshold where imperfection = bricked key, and perfection = +1 happens awfully early in a difficulty system that is infinitely scaleable with a tiered (+1-3) reward system.
If you are +++'ing a key, you are vastly overgearing it or doing insane pulls with almost no mistakes at all.
If you are ++'ing it, you are doing well with few to no major mistakes and are likely overgearing the content slightly.
If you are +'ing a key, it is either sloppy in route or damage, maybe had a wipe, or you are at just the right spot for gear for that key level.
Considering the scaling, you are less likely to find people that are massively over gearing higher keys this early. You can probably three chest eighths and nines with some very strong DPS but the likelihood of doing that in a pug group is a bit lower.
They’ve progressively been making them harder. Not to mention the recent squish we had so now we’re starting at the range where +++'ing started to slow down.
The dungeons are very overtuned these days. I see people struggle to even +1 a key. They’re unforgiving, do so much damage and have high DPS requirements. And aren’t balanced. If 1 dungeon could be +++ It’s Ara-Kara. That timer is vastly over forgiving. Yet another dungeon like Necrotic Wake I barely get +
In ye olde days (Dragonflight and prior), good use of disruption effects and meant that you could lock packs down for pretty long periods of time reliably meaning that you COULD pull really big and just blast stuff.
It’s a lot harder now because CC just causes mobs to recast stuff immediately and there’s a lot of mobs that will ruin your groups day even if you’re (relatively) overgeared for a dungeon.
Plus Challengers Peril and we’ve yet to have the obligatory 3 seasons straight of nerfing timers so most groups pull pretty conservatively which makes it hard to 3 chest stuff. Most groups would much rather go for the reliable and clean 2 chest than risk it for the 3 chest.
Why would anyone take the “warning” of someone who does zero content?
You’re also forgetting how extremely punishing +7 affix is now than in the past. It 1000% effects 3 chesting a key now. If you wipe that’s 1 minute and 15 seconds off the timer + progress on the trash/boss you wiped on AND the run backs can sometimes be long.
I didn’t forget it. I mentioned it in the last paragraph.
But I think it’s a secondary rather than a primary factor. The kind of pulls that you would need to do to 3 chest a dungeon are a lot harder to do with pug level coordination since you can’t have classes like VDH just perma lock down packs like they could in DF. (Also I miss my free infernals, they would provide so much free CC on giga packs )
I think of CC still worked the same people would still try for those hero pulls. There’s a lot of dungeons where you COULD try and do 3-4 pack pulls. But they’re sprinkled with a ton of mobs that all need to be handled individually else they’ll ruin your day with stuff like hard-CC, heal absorbs or just hitting for a bajillion if they’re not kicked/cc’d.
The +3 timer has always been extremely difficult to hit. Now, we have an additional layer of oppressive death penalties, and the general timer spread is shorter now than previously.
Long dungeons are universally disliked, and hyper-restrictive timers are a byproduct.
It prolly depends on the key some of these are way tighter than others. Like i did 10cot in a pretty solid group everyone around 1.5m overall, only 1 death and we ++. Gotta overgear it more i guess lol.
)