The big winners and losers of Solo Shuffle

Now that end of season data is out, it’s very easy to extract which classes over and under performed.

The average R1 Solo Shuffle Rating (Top 0.1%) across all DPS & Healing Specs is 3366. Any spec with a higher R1 cutoff, indicates the class is performing above the average. This means that the best players of the spec are able to beat relatively equally skilled players of other specs more easily. Anything lower, is performing below the average.

Here are the results:

Specs Performing Above Average:
Druid - Balance|6%
Warlock - Demonology|5%
Shaman - Elemental|5%
Warlock - Destruction|5%
Paladin - Retribution|5%|
Mage - Arcane|4%|
Shaman - Enhancement|4%
Mage - Frost|4%
Hunter - Beast Mastery|4%
Monk - Windwalker|4%
Monk - Mistweaver|3%
Druid - Feral|2%
Mage - Fire|2%
Hunter - Survival|2%
Priest - Shadow|2%
Shaman - Restoration|1%
Rogue - Subtlety|1%

Specs Performing at Average:
Paladin - Holy|0%
Priest - Discipline|0%
Warrior - Arms|0%
Warlock - Affliction|0%
Evoker - Preservation|0%

Specs Performing Below Average:
Rogue - Assassination|-2%
Hunter - Marksmanship|-2%
Evoker - Devastation|-4%
Demon Hunter - Havoc|-4%
Druid - Restoration|-4%
Death Knight - Frost|-5%
Priest - Holy|-9%
Death Knight - Unholy|-9%
Rogue - Outlaw|-14%
Warrior - Fury|-16%

Similar data could be pulled for 2v2, 3v3 and collated with spec utilization (how many people play the spec) to create a more comprehensive picture. With all the data that blizzard has available to it. I’m a little unsure why it is so difficult to balance PVP?

My suggestion is this:

  1. Take this data, make small tuning adjustments every week, and build a more even playing field. If a class appears to be over-performing by 6%, maybe the next week you nerf it’s healing/dmg by 3-4% and re-assess the following week. Do the same for classes under-performing.
  2. Look at which specs are underutilized. Consider reworks on their class design and abilities to make the class more enjoyable to your audience.
  3. Look at which individual abilities are underutilized. Consider reworks to these abilities.

I get that it’s complex to balance multiple specs across multiple aspects of game-play (PVE, PVP, Raids, Dungeons, Arenas, etc). Combine this with trying to make each spec accessible to new players while still having depth for experience players, and it’s not an easy task. But the fact that a spec like Unholy DK can be performing 15% worse than a Balance Druid for an entire season is pretty pathetic. Especially when you have the data and tools to make these adjustments.

5 Likes

Isn’t that all sample size dependent?

What’s wild is the drop for unholy and dh considering how strong they started the season, they’d have both been just under Boomie before the first balance patch.

Maybe unnerf Crushing Blow and Bloodthirst heal? :dracthyr_love_animated:

1 Like

I’d be curious how much of it is (actual strength) vs. (perceived strength) and how many players swapped on that basis. I still saw plenty of dh at 2400+. Some of my hardest matches were DH/Boomi at 2700-2800. Absolutely crushed my enhance.

Clearly there is a space for them and clearly they have the ability to perform really well. Did DH fall off that hard… or did the people playing them just swap to the next thing, ret. Even looking at boomis. Clearly an extremely high performing spec, but I rarely see them compared to everything else. They have a somewhat convoluted play style, but works really well in RSS.

Plenty of those ‘under performing’ specs are fine imo. If they tried to tune around this specifically, RSS would be awful.

4 Likes

Ewww why would you do that you sicko? Fury needs to stay the garbage.

4 Likes

There would be more fury if they nerfed arms. :slight_smile:

Fury doesn’t need more healing.

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Healers are the losers of solo shuffle.

5 Likes

Yeh i agree

People will complain about every class in the game until they all have the same exact abilities, and every player has the exact same rating.

There will ALWAYS be something with a higher representation than something else.

This game has shifted so deep into this min/max herd mentality. it’s really unfortunate

4 Likes

fake news

2 Likes

Let’s see how things turn out in the zuggest of the zugzug seasons starting Tuesday.

I don’t think this has to do with the number of players playing the spec though, this is based on a final CR number. Which is pretty objective.

DH for example could have taken a population hit but that wouldn’t necessarily affect the cr needed for an R1 spot if it were still strong.

This was the main point for the post, not really anything to do with the number of people playing a given spec.

It is awful currently because of the balancing that went on in season one. 10.0.7 saw 50k players drop in NA from both factions alone.

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Hmm S1 fire overperformed eh?

2 Likes

This is a really bad take imo. Warrior had almost 40 slots for R1 and arcane had 3. Arcane had a r1 cutoff of 3502. Does that mean arcane was overperforming? No it was just super competitive where people had to que over eachother to get r1 for such few spots.

14 Likes

Oh god, it hurts to see

Why do all the thematically cool specs get kneecapped in PvP? :sob:

Buff Raging/Crushing Blow, unbug Battle Trance so it activates by Crushing Blow, give Raging Blow a defensive element (like Leech buff) to offset not pressing Bloodthirst, and GIVE BLADESTORM BACK TO FURY.

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This is very misleading data. Fire mage was gutter-tier in S1 and Balance was by no means #1 or even above average. These cut-off values were set by a very small and exceptional group of players dedicated to their specs. If these same players had chosen other specs to be dedicated to, the results would have show the players, not the specs, having the same scores.

7 Likes

Well no, Boomy was def far above average for season 1. And while yes, while the top 7 of us were really pushing the ladder up, it doesn’t change that.

Boomy was just a spec where if you knew how to survive on it, given the right comps & conditions, you could solo carry games. Now throw in ret/enh/hunter into the lobby and suddenly you want to cry.

As for fire, it def wasn’t “gutter tier”. Just required a bit more help from its team to secure anything.

Distribution data should be used to qualify changes and objectivity of information.

In your example, if the top 50 players are more competitive, it could result in a large gap between them and the people beneath. That is easy to identify, and in general, a spec’s capabilities will average out over a large number of games played by a large number of players.

The purpose of this post is to encourage frequent and data-based adjustments to classes so that the player base can play whatever spec is most fun for them, try new specs, and be on a more level playing field. This enhances player enjoyment and retention.

The alternative is rotating a few specs as overpowered to milk character boosts and subscriptions. In general, this may enhance profits, but probably doesn’t enhance player enjoyment. Which is more-so what is happening now. Blizzard has data. It should be used extensively to elect qualitative and quantitative adjustments to classes.

Good data is easy to utilize, and the only barriers are bureaucracy, bias and/or apathy. For example, nobody is going to argue that fury warrior is terrible in PVP compared to other specs, and the data resoundingly confirms that. So why is this not addressed?

If we’re going to choose a few specs to be the meta. For example, arms warrior is what blizzard wants you to play if you want to PVP. Then let’s acknowledge that. But that doesn’t alleviate the imbalances of many other on-meta specs, which should be addressed.

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That’s a really polite way of saying “carried”

Fire was the self play of shuffles in S1 :joy:.

Like I’m here to collect points, try my best and hope ya’ll finna carry off anything remotely successful I do.

This season fire is a freakin real DPS spec and all star feeling atm before any nerfs/tuning come down pipeline. Will def be a popular spec on ladder and nowhere near close to being a shuffle “self play” spec.

Though some killer fire mages did make it work in S1. Voltonjud pushed like 4 mages up to the top and pherix snagged a shuffle R1 last day of push.

I was just disheartened blizzard let a pure DPS spec feel so awful to play for the entirety of first season and threw things out there like living bomb buffs which no PVE/PVP spec uses and still cant use. Would have been nice to play without feeling like a sandbag to your team.