It also leaves open the possibility for the Alliance players to queue against the multitude of Horde PuGs it could have matched up with that got into games while the Alliance players were against the Horde premade. You can’t exclude the one without excluding the other. They will all requeue, albeit later than the premade due to time in a game, which is why I said premades overrepresent their proportion of the group population. The occurrences that happen that aren’t your desired occurrence are still happening, and need to be considered as well. Furthermore, Horde CAN face the theoretical same PuG (or PuG slot, more specifically), over and over again, the same way they can face the same premade.
What you’re saying isn’t mathematically possible, especially when you look at in in practice, as described below:
Let us suppose every Horde team has a greater chance of facing an Alliance Premade than an Alliance PuG at a greater rate than the rate at which Alliance face Horde Premades vs. PuGs.
Assume Alliance premades finish games no faster than Horde premades due to equal skill, and Alliance doesn’t have a greater population of premades than Horde.
Say 20% of all Alliance player games are against premades. And 30% of all Horde player games are against premades.
Take 100 matches from each side. Alliance played against 80 PuGs and 20 premades, whereas in these same 100 games Horde played against 70 PuGs and 30 premades.
Somehow, even though there is the same proportion of equally skilled premades on each side, 10 more Alliance premades got games, while 10 Alliance PuGs didn’t get to participate. Where did they go? Are they stuck in queue? I thought Alliance queues were near instant. You can say that this is just one sample, but repeat this 100 times.
Alliance faces 8,000 PuGs and 2,000 premades while Horde faces 7,000 PuGs and 3,000 premades.
Either way, assuming your condition is true (that Horde will have a greater percentage of overall games against premades), Alliance premades are getting to play more than Alliance PuGs (when compared to Horde’s premade vs PuG group ratio), even though they aren’t finishing games faster than Horde premades, and aren’t a greater proportion of the population than Horde premades. Somehow, in this time, 1,000 Alliance PuG groups didn’t get to play. Where are they? The only possible explanation that would work in favor of what you’re saying is that there are so few Alliance players PuGing, that they’re caught in significant queue times because they’re unable to fill up their last final slots, while Alliance premades are getting instant queues. And, this would have to be to such a level that it creates a significant difference in the number of games being played by Alliance PuGs vs. Premades (as a ratio compared to Hordes’).
Sure, Horde are playing less games, so when they look at their ratio it may seem higher than it should be, but as their number of games increases it will get closer to the statistical average. Assuming proportions of the population are the same, Alliance Premades don’t magically get to play more than Alliance PuGs compared to Horde Premades vs. PuGs. Unless there is a skill discrepancy between either Alliance Premades and Horde Premades, Alliance PuGs and Horde PuGs which makes Alliance PuGs finish slower, or both. Which, hey, with streamers, min maxers w/ racials, and whatever the hell else that goes on in WoW could be the case. But you haven’t listed a skill or proportion discrepancy, or even PuG vs Premade queue times, as the cause, and to adopt it now as a justification for your presupposition would more than likely be just a dishonest rationalization in defense of your desired result.