This is my third year for collecting stats on this. I am well over 1300 attempts on Coren Direbrew and still haven’t seen this mount. The Rarity addon is tracking my progress. I had more attemmpts before getting the addon. Summary:
- 2 years ago: 280+ attempts. 0 Rams, 5 Kodos;
- 1 year ago: 800+ attempts, 0 rams, 0 Kodos
- So far this year: 200+ attempts, 0 rams, 0 Kodos
It seems highly unlikely I’ll see 5 mounts in 280 attempts and then 0 in another 1000+, particularly because this year and last year I believe the first attempt per day has a higher chance. This applies to other events. Not sure if Brewfest is included.
But it doesn’t actually matter because the so-called bad luck protection did not exist 2 years ago, and that’s when I saw all the mounts.
Can someone please actually look into this rather than just a canned response about luck?
Let me get the obvious questions out of the way:
Q: How can you do so many attempts?
A: I currently have 125+ level 70+ toons across 2 accounts. Last year I had 45+ level 60+ toons. 2 years ago I believe it was 20-25 level 60s.
Q: Were these toons appropriate level?
A: Yes, this is only counting toons for whom the Epic (purple) keg chest drops, currently level 70+, previously 60+ in DF and 50+ in SL.
Q: Were these all attempts once per day?
A: Yes. You only get the purple keg (or any keg) once per daily reset per toon. It says so in the dungeon finder. Rarity only counts opened kegs anyway.