I didn’t measure it before 11.1 patch so no data to backup my claim, but since the 11.1 patch came out it felt like my 3-star herb picks were a LOT more rare. I thought I was well over 30% 3-star herb from picking. So I just spent time picking flowers until I crossed 1k herbs to see real ratios.
1001 total herbs gathered.
394 1-star
399 2-star
208 3-star
I am fully maxed on “Bountiful Harvests” and “Botany” and I am about a month or so from maxing out the “Overloading The Underground” page. My picks of 1 star didn’t use to be twice my 3 star picks before the patch. But they sure are now.
Has anyone else noticed this trend? I havn’t seen anyone talking about it.
So you can’t just look at the values of herbs in a vacuum. You have varying levels of skill depending on what you pick. For example, if I pick a luredrop, I have 245 skill. If I pick an irradiated luredrop my skill goes up to 335. If there happens to be more (or you self-select that) then your ratio can change. The values you are quoting are about what you would expect at max skill in the base herbs (roughly 40% 40% 20%). Yes. I did take data before 11.1.
Yea. I did get a lot higher chance on the special herbs. I maxed the first level of overload herbs, and the 4 sub categories of them all have 20-25 points each. So base skill maybe, but I was picking quite a few of the special herbs as well which has a lot higher skill. I could measure by not picking a single one of those special herbs, it’s going to be a LOT lower rate. Maybe 10% rank-3 which is way lower then it used to be.
Your data is still within the bounds of what I observed pre 11.1. Suppose irradiated herbs give 35% probability of R3.
And further suppose that 10%, or 100 herbs, of your haul came from those. Remember that the extra copies count as base herbs.
This means that you should expect 900*20% = 180 R3 herbs from base herbs.
You have the standard deviation of the binomial distribution sqrt√(N x p x (1-p)) = sqrt(900x.2x.8)= 12 herbs uncertainty. So you should get 180 +/- 12 R3 herbs from base
Then same computations for irradiated. Ave = 35. SD of the binomial distribution is 4.7… round to 5. So you should get 35 +/- 5 from those.
Thus your theoretical amount is (180 + 35) = 215 R3. Then using propagation to find the uncertainty in the sum gives 13.
Thus your theoretical value is 215 +/- 13. You are within 1.5 sigma of the expected result. It is not significantly different.
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