RNG - how random is it?

Interested to see how many other guilds are having the reoccurring problem of not so random loot drops from MC and BWL.

I’ve been with the same guild pretty much since launch, we started raiding MC around the end of Sept and had BWL on
“farm status” a couple weeks after it’s release. So far we’ve only seen 1 Binding, 1 or 2 each of brut blade, core hound tooth, and viskag. 0 (zero) maladath and CTS. Basically our melee DPS has seen little love from the RNGods.

Armour, rings and trinket drops seem to be a little better balanced however there is one class that is favoured above all others. Druids!!! We have seen enough Druid loot to outfit the entire Chinese army!

The RNG has been very kind to our healers, so much in fact that our warriors are starting to receive purple healing gear for our Diamond Flask sets. Any other guilds out there having similar problems?

Would be great if Blizzard implemented a way to turn down the drop %’s of certain loot categories/types.

I don’t pay TOOOO much attention to loot, I mostly just enjoy raiding with my guilds. Although I have noticed whenever there’s loot drama it’s almost always warriors crying because they didn’t get something

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Feels like people are cursed to a set loot table

We went like 3 or 4 months without seeing an aurastone hammer, have cleared bwl every lockout, even on multiple raids, ZERO red dragonscale protectors, yet in org i see practically every shaman with one

It makes no sense

It makes perfect sense.

No it wouldn’t

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What you’re experiencing IS randomness.

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The law of large numbers averages it out but over the course of about hundreds too thousands of kills, Since you’ve had maybe 30 MC clears since classic launched its not enough of a sample size to draw a conclusion. Clear rag about 270 or so more times and we can try to make a determination to figure out whats going on here.

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Farming MC for months and my raid group are yet to see another +4 stats to chest, I know, world drop but. Took me months to have an Eye from Rags too.

No Maladath from BWL yet, same for the Cape of Draconic might, and we one shot every boss there since the 2nd week BWL went up. RNG in vanilla is really annoying.

It’s because the itemization for DPS warriors on classic is hot garbage and we barely have anything to loot from raids aside some weapons.

I have 3 loots in BWL and all 3 items have less than 7% average drop chance…

If every single guild got multiple CTSs, Red Dragonscale Protectors, Thunderfurys, etc etc then it would be the complete opposite of RNG. It would be a guarantee. The fact that some guilds see multiple drops, while some other guilds see zero drops tells you it is indeed RNG.

One guild I’ve raided with has 5 Lok Amir’s already. Another guild I raid with has been 8/8 BWL since day 1 and they have 0 Lok Amir’s. It’s just the way it goes.

Doubt it. It’s not BIS healing item, so why would they be using it?

pretty random imo. But certain items I see do drop almost every week.

It’s a good question, I think! I suppose it depends on what sort of randomness (or pseudo-randomness) has been programmed in…

Although it’s been a while since I played it, I definitely noticed some items would drop more often on some servers in Diablo 2.

It would be quite interesting if they exposed the code that is responsible for how they are dealing with RNG. AFAIK, the only thing we really know is that if two people roll the same number, the first one is given priority.

what would make sense to you? every guild have the same amount of drops?? that wouldn’t really be random, random is random,

I am reminded of a story I am to lazy to look for it, but there was a Teacher who asks his math students to go home and either flip a coin 200 times and record the results, or fake 200 results. The following day he looked at the homework and identifies nearly all those who faked their tosses. and it comes down to the ones that most likely didn’t fake were the ones that you will see runs of heads or tails of like 7 or more or something, and the ones that faked it didn’t have any runs that big because people seem to assume that random means you cant have a repeat of the same thing over and over again

that is a very simplified version of the story I am to lazy to look it up

But just remember Random is Random some times you will get the same thing over and over again

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This is a classic ‘game’ in statistics, although you only really need 20 or so flips for it to work pretty well… Doubt you could convince anyone to flip a coin 200 times, lol.

I’ve played a version where you have young (primary school aged) students go and flip the coin 20 times, record the results, as well as making a fake list of 20 flips, they give us the two lists, we tell them which is real and which is fake. Works very well with very young students because they’re reliably very bad at producing random sequences - not that adults are good at it…

Edit: the point of all this being that laymen (and especially children) have no idea what ‘random’ looks like, and when its staring them in the face they tend to think it’s not random - this is the phenomenon going on with the OP.

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I think it’s completely random. All guilds complain about too much druid and warlock loot.

Just a story though.

In my guild we kept getting the same drops in MC, so on a whim they changed me to loot master for the night. This was pre-BWL.

We started getting all these drops we haven’t seen or have seen rarely almost immediately. I got these random whispers like “See it’s working, I told you changing the loot master fixes it”. We got class drops we didn’t normally get, some rare melee drops that I don’t remember, Staff of Dominance, Choker of the Fire Lord, CHT AND we also got the other TF binding we were missing AND an Eye of Sulfuras. At the end of the raid everyone was like make Mootwo the master looter all the time etc. I have the absolute worst /rolls ever where I’d never win anything if that was the system so it was pretty funny.

Dude I understand how the loot tables would average out given enough time/boss kills. It’s just interesting how some guilds have different forms of luck than others.

The other day I was waiting with a healer for the rest of a Strat Live pug to show up. I item racked on my healing set and diamond flask. The healer had a good laugh that I was wearing wild growth spaulders and went on to say his guild has only seen those a few times but have completed 3 TF’s.

C’est la vie

Here’s your problem. You can’t emotionally separate yourself from the fantasy of “luck”.

Huh? Not sure what you mean here

There’s no such thing as luck.

The fact that we have so little items each kill doesnt help… 6 people need 1 item that has a 6% chance to drop from 1 boss… it sucks lol