Quick Vial of the Sands Question?

Community General Discussion
1

I collected 54 crates – and I only got 2 canpoic jars.

I heard that the chances of an alchemist getting vial of the sands is 2-5% per canopic jar?

I believe that the law of probability states that no matter how many jars you open the chances will always be 2-5%.

Essentially, just because you opened 10 jars and didn’t get it – that doesn’t mean your chances are now 15-20 percent, instead of 2-5%.

Correct?

If I’m only getting 2 canopic jars per 50 crates …
Doesn’t that mean that to get, let’s say 50 canopic jars …
To give myself “enough” chances to get vial of the sands …
I might need to collect over 2500 crates?

Thank you for the input.
This whole process has been taxing, but I really want that recipe.
I’ve heard of people just giving up on this.

2

If they don’t have any sort of bad luck protection, yes. Each jar has the exact same chance of giving you the recipe as the one before it and the one after it.

If you average 1 jar every 25 crates, it’ll take 1250 crates to get 50 jars.

1 Like
3

Thank you for the help.