Question about "No inspiration procs"

I noticed when I am at 290/300 on a recipe, I can craft the next rank about ~50% of the time without an inspire proc. I was wondering what the limit/chance of this is? I have another recipe w/ 425 skill required and I am at 406, will that also make the next quality at around ~50%?

Is the chance of a “no inspiration proc” based on entering the last bar?
EX: I am within 10 points= I am now in the window of ~50% chance to no inspire proc, and no amount of skill will increase that until it is guaranteed

OR is it based on how close you are to the next bar?
EX: I am 9/10th’s the way through the expected quality bar. Now that I am in that last bar, each skill point will increase my chances of a no inspiration proc by x% until it is guaranteed

If we can figure this out, it will sort of decide where to put my next chunk of points, into inspire or resourcefulness. So ANY input from personal experience is welcomed!!

Skill is fixed points. Inspire is fixed chance to give x skill points. If the X skill points will reach the next rank you will hit that with an inspire proc. I don’t believe skill factor has anything to do with increasing that point and that would solely come from inspiration.

Alright, I figured out a way to test it myself, so I will post the info here in case it helps anyone. I realized Kul Tirans get +2 to all professions, which is a decent way to test with a big sample size! W/ 292/300 I can at the very least see if +2 skill = more no inspiration procs.

I just finished a batch of 5000 at 290/300 skill before the racial change. With 17% inspiration and 22% multicraft, I ended up with 3566 Rank 2 mats, and 3182 Rank 3 mats. So a little under 50/50 split + the multicraft bonuses.

I am going to race change now, and post again later with the 292/300 results

EDIT:
Ok I am back!!
the new batch of 5k at 292/300 w/ the same secondary stats resulted in:
2894 Rank 2 mats and 3884 Rank 3 mats!!
The first batch was 6784 total w/ 52% being rank 2 and 48% R3
Second batch was 6778 total with 42% being rank 2 and 58% R3

So it would seem that once you are in the final bar, on average each skill point will net you 5% more of the next rank up. Anyone else is welcome to test this out as well and post your results

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Very often, any recipe where I’m less than 10 skill points away from naturally producing that rank, I get an Inspiration proc almost every time. If I’m 50+ points away from crafting it naturally, even with 30%-40% Inspiration, it’ll take 4-5 attempts, way more than you’d expect. I’ve completed nearly 700 crafting orders now and this is very consistent for me. I haven’t tested with things like crafting mats, just with LW gear.

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It looks like the closer you are to the next rank on the skill bar the more likely you are to craft the next rank with no inspire. You can even inspire and not reach the guaranteed skill value and still craft the next rank.

Some people have said the marker position has no function other than to display your skill, but that didn’t make sense to me since they already have your skill in text and the bar kinda fades from previous rank to the next rank.

I know I’ve crafted the next rank without inspire procs before.

There is a hidden ~1-15 additional skill points you get with crafts. This was actually mentioned in the " Dragonflight: Making It with Professions" page by Blizzard, although it is hidden in a wall of text.

As you craft your item, there is a small amount of randomness added to your skill roll to represent the natural variation in your crafting execution. In addition, if you have any Inspiration —a new crafting stat—you have a chance to become inspired, gaining a significant amount of bonus skill during the craft. This means you may do better than you expected, but never worse!

Here a Reddit thread about it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/woweconomy/comments/108hvc5/what_all_do_we_know_about_the_hidden_skill_bonus/

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