A common statement still being posted on forums, “Layering has no effect on queue times, only server capacity does!”
Layering and server capacity are not mutually exclusive.
Summary
The important part, “Raising realm caps would simply forestall the problem, letting more players in at launch but creating an unsustainable situation down the line, with severe queues when we turn off layering permanently before Phase 2 of our content unlock plan.”
Yes, server capacity is what affects queue times. But, when Blizzard turns off layering in Phase 2, they will also lower the server capacity. This is to adjust to the single layer.
To highlight how this might work, let’s look at data from http://wowpop.appspot.com/ . They have added a beta feature where they are tracking the people online during, “happy hour” (7pm to 11pm - I assume server time).
Based on the realms that are currently able to perform free transfers to the low populated realms, it appears that a happy hour population of 5,000 players is what Blizzard is shooting for as a single layer capacity. Smolderweb and Netherwind are the only realms not able to currently transfer, and they are seeing happy hour populations of 4,623 and 3,503, respectively. So, if this assumption is correct (because I have seen no post from Blizzard to verify this), then realms like Faerlina, Stalagg and Herod will see queues greater than 5,000 once Phase 2 begins. In fact, all the realms currently being offered free transfers will have queue times under this scenario. Based on this, this is what we may see for queue times in Phase 2:
Potential Queue Times in Phase 2:
- Faerlina 6596
- Stalagg 5609
- Herod 5043
- Whitemane 4349
- Thalnos 3854
- Incendius 3260
- Kromcrush 3224
- Fairbanks 3133
- Kirtonos 3064
- Bigglesworth 2746
- Sufuras 2725
- Skeram 2440
- Blaumeux 1743
- Benediction 1036
- Thunderfury 991
- Kurinnaxx 374
- Rattlegore 242
Disclaimer: I post this based on my assumptions from what we are seeing in population data, and the free transfers we are currently seeing. I hope this will warrant a blue post that can correct my assumptions and give us firm grounding to base our realm decisions on. Thank you.