Having been an officer in a raiding guild through out WOTLK Classic, Val’anyr and Shadowmourne fragment/shard drop rates both started off a bit too slow. Having to consistently grind out Ulduar to make sure the 5-6 healers in the guild had their legendary before Phase4 and ICC. It didn’t feel good and just added to additional burn out of the raid team. The fragment/shard drop increase happened too late in the expansion. I am proposing that drop rate is changed from the start, rather than waiting until Dragonsoul is released.
This will be a larger problem in Cataclysm if the drop rate isn’t adjusted earlier in Phase2 for Firelands and Phase3 for Dragonsoul. Most guilds will likely have upwards of 7-10 caster dps, all of which will want Dragonwrath.
To obtain Dragonwrath, it requires a lengthy quest chain. The fourth quest in Stage1 of the chain, “All-Seeing Eye”, requires the player to obtain 25 Eternal Ember. In a 25 man raid, you could receive 1-3 per boss. 10 man drop rate was 0-1 per boss. Which will take at most 4 weeks, or as little as 2 weeks.
The 3rd quest in Stage2, requiring 1000 Seething Cinder. For patch 4.2, they dropped at a rate of:
10m Normal: 18-23 per boss
10m Heroic: 23-26 per boss
25m Normal: 48-55 per boss
25m Heroic: 55-66 per boss
For 10man guilds in Cata, running heroic 10m Firelands, it will take >5 weeks to complete. 25man guilds running heroic 25m Firelands, best case scenario is about 2 weeks, but more likely 3-4 weeks.
The first quest of Stage 3 “Heart of Flame” requires the player to imbue the staff with “Smouldering” siphoned from the bosses, similar to the infusions for Shadowmourne. But unlike Shadowmourne, its not one siphon done from three bosses, you need 250 total Smouldering siphoned for any boss in Firelands except for Ragnaros. The amount you can siphon is different between 10/25man and between Normal/Heroic.
10m Normal: 3-5
10m Heroic: 7-9
25m Normal: 7-9
25m Heroic: 9-11
Which means it will take on average about 8.5 weeks to complete one Dragonwrath staff. Given the larger number of players who will want the staff, assuming 7 caster dps on average per 25 man raiding roster, could means over 40 weeks of raiding Firelands to get all 7 casters a staff. This is assuming you have three casters working to achieve the three separate steps above concurrently.
Assuming that Dragonsoul is released 4 - 5 months after Firelands (that is a big “if”), that would mean 25m guilds would continue to run Firelands for additional 4 - 5 months after Dragonsoul release. This could be worse for 10man guilds, if they have a heavy caster dps comp.
I think back on the Ulduar grind, while Ulduar was fun the first three months, by the time TOGC was released in Phase3, everyone was burnt out on the content and the fun factor of the instance was gone. Blizzard has made changes now (finally) to increase the drop rate significantly to allow players to achieve their legendary dreams for the expansion. Lets enable that sooner for Firelands and reduce the burn out.