Over hit cap, still getting resisted often

Warlock, mostly BIS. Running heroics, Shadowbolt cumulative 4.3% resist rate while sitting at 204 hit (2 over cap)
278 casts with 12 resists. Heroic was Mechanar no so mobs in particular that resist.
Even with variance, thats 4.3X the average variance of 1% at cap.
Any ideas? Bug?

Are you using curse of elements for every cast and if not what is your spell penetration stat?

I was not, using CoR b/c of comp(i was only caster) and currently no spell pen.
Tell me more please

Spell Pen is different than Spell Hit.

You can have capped Spell Hit but still have your Spells resisted. In particular by mobs with some baseline resist to the school of magic you’re using.

If im not mistaken, even at hit cap theres still a chance to be resisted, albeit a minute one

17% cap always remains 1% chance to resist so you gear for exactly 16%

I’ve been noticing a higher than normal amount of resists as well and I play smite priest (which there is no specific holy resist) so I’ve just been assuming I’m consistently being unlucky.

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