What planet did you pull that number from? My calculator rounds the probability of having seen the mount to 1 at less than half that. You’ll have a 50% chance of having seen it drop at about 4% of that.
That’s not how probability works… with 2310 attempts, you have a 50% chance of having seen it. After 3333 tries you have a 63% chance of having seen it. The actual formula you’re looking for is 1-(1-(%droprate/100))^x, where x is the number of attempts. If we trust OPs droprate number, you’re looking for 1-(0.9997^x) to determine your chance of having the mount after x runs.
And after years and years and years to get to 56,000 attempts what do we get? A 0.03% chance each time you walk in, it never changes, you even said it yourself.
I figured this and the world boss mounts are the only mounts that can still be obtained in the game I will never own and if I ever get them than it is a bonus.
I’d be putting your complaints into the rest of the mounts and items we can still get, like how after 9 years I only just the other week got the toy from the snails in Throne of Thunder, but somehow have had 5 Horridon mounts drop for me and am still waiting for Ji-Kun.
Things need to change, someone should not have to run years and years of attempts on mounts that are not even that special and walk away with nothing.
No we don’t know, we never will as they never tell us. But after this many years of people trying, this many years of people saying it’s 0.03%, like at least 9 years: ~https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1262150-Big-Love-Rocket-0-03-drop-chance
If after 9 years the numbers on Wowhead have not changed and people are still reporting the same info than yeh, there is a high chance it really is 0.03%.
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I consider myself extremely fortunate to have gotten it back in… Cataclysm I think…?
Anyways, there is a mount I covet more. There’s always someone on a Love Rocket somewhere. So I rarely use mine anymore. But I really want the Void Bird from the portals in Draenor. So many many hours farmed. Ugh… oh well.
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The expected value is 1/r for the distribution. By the way, you don’t need to use % drop rate divided by 100, you can just use the drop rate since it’s already a probability measure.
50% chance of having seen something is not the same as the average. It’s the same reason the average US salary is about $20,000 higher than the median. We’re talking about the expected value here.
The math is inaccurate, just saying.
Would you want the odds to go up each time you lose a lottery ticket? Fat chance on that, just saying.
Yeah I agree, I think with 800k drops we can be reasonably sure it’s at least somewhat accurate 
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I’m gonna go ahead and say yes, most people would want that 
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And you would be very disappointed.
Why? The money from the lottery comes from the people buying tickets. If there were some system in place where your chances of winning increased the more you played I’d be willing to bet more people would play.
This is an interesting topic, I’ll have to take it to the nerds of reddit and we can have ourselves a nice thought exercise 
I mean, thats what rng is, and theres no bad luck protection on mounts.
You could farm the rocket 100k times, or once, and have it drop. Each attempt is its own individual droprate. It doesnt improve the more times you kill it. The law of averages suggests that the more kills the higher the chance you should eventually see it drop, buuuuuuut it doesnt really work that way.
Same like I know ppl farming Invincible for years, and I had it drop on like my third kill.
Nothing in this game should have that low of a droprate. Especially a holiday event. Holidays are meant to be fun, not laden with insanity.
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Yeah RNG is usually fine - but bellow 1% !? — That’s insane.
To give more context in statistic (And arguably sadistic) terms: The Love Rocket mount is more rare than Invincible.
Then the lottery wouldn’t make as much, which means that the jackpots would be smaller
The Rocket drop rate should be increased.
I got it last year and I have been advocating for a higher drop rate since before and after getting it. I don’t know how many thousands of eligible kills I had, but just last year I did 60+ attempts per day until it dropped.
I stand by what I’ve said before, nothing in WoW should be below a 1% drop rate.
Holiday boss drops should be higher by default due to limited windows to even make attempts.
Bad luck protection and/or vendor options would be nice additions as well.
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Yep, but dat dopamine also “what if I play and build up my luck then wait until the prize is big”
It would be nice if they made it actually possible to get some things in this game without relying purely on RNG that could grant you it on your first try, or never give you the item no matter how many attempts you try.
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Some people get stuff first shot, others takes years
Hell, look at hazelnuttygame. She just posted about getting some korth mounts in under 10 attempts (highest was like 8). Her rng is God tir.