So you are acknowledging that RNG isn’t just RNG. Both things are randomly dropped but you understand one is easier to obtain than the other?
Meaning you can argue over whether something is too easy or hard to get while acknowledging RNG will be there? Like the OP did. OP asked for a buffed drop rate, not a guaranteed drop.
Yes and no, for this reason:
It’s not YOUR chance of getting it. It’s the overall chance of it dropping. Now not only are you competing for the chance to drop, you’re competing against that chance, against other players for that drop.
Why did only 1 person out of the 40 get it as opposed to everyone getting it on the drop? It dropped, you all saw it, but you didn’t get it.
This is so far in left field that we could spend days talking about how this isn’t applicable lol
I see your points and my example was something merely to prove a point. I know paycheck are different. I could have used medical diagnosis, methods of dying, or any other probability based outcome. RNG aka probability is the concept at hand.
My point is that sure, you COULD get invincible before you get a Cata timewalking mount with equal tries, but it isn’t likely for each individual person. That’s because the RNG is tuned differently and has different steps to roll the dice. Invincible requires clearing a raid or using clever exploits. The bear form requires an easy kill. BUT, you can farm icecrown with 50 characters a week if you wish and maybe mix in different difficulties (I’m unsure, never farmed it). The bear is limited to a hard weekly cap per how many Druids you have.
The OP wasn’t denying that RNG should play a part. They were saying the RNG was too punishing. They aren’t alone. I remember people saying the same thing about soundless (I think) in BFA. Blizzard stacked the RNG of a low drop rate on top of the RNG of a rare spawn. Most people only wanted one form of RNG, not two. Same thing with some of the Druid forms. Why tie RNG of a low drop rate, the RNG of a long spawn timer, and add a hard daily lockout. It seems excessive.
And this is sorta applicable. Paychecks are near certain but not certain. Therefore, they have a probability associated with getting them even if it’s 99.9999%. I was contrasting two ways of getting paid. Both have wildly different probabilities associated with them.
Long spawn timers arent RNG. Theyre just long. If its a 3 hour spawn timer, you can kill it, and 3 hours later it’ll respawn. Thats not RNG.
Its still only one form of RNG. You not knowing the last kill and thus not knowing the next respawn doesnt make it RNG
We need to move on from skins to actual customization. We should be able to adjust eye color, piercings, hair color, tat color, ear size and shape without having to choose one set skin for each. For example I’m sick and tired of having pink eyes on my brown cat.
No, RNG is RNG. Your inability to grasp this simple concept is a you problem, and frankly sad.
A long spawn timer combined with sharding and the existence of other players introduces uncertainty. Heck I’ve camped mosa for three hours, nearly killed him, and sharded out for no reason. If he had a short spawn timers this would matter much less. And you are quibbling. It is more difficult to get a 5% drop that has a long spawn timer than one that doesn’t. OP was saying the runebear was too hard to get.
Lastly, the spawn time appears to be random. Between two and 3 hours. That is the R in RNG. When will he appear, will I get there in time, will it drop my form?
All this negates the thrust of my argument. Added a long spawn timer, with a daily lockout, to a rare drop is more punishing than not. Call it RNG or not, you are missing the point. And again, a 3ish hour spawn is harder to target with the timer differing per shard.
I mean, this is trivially true. Anything you say like “x” is “x” is true. I guess I thought you were saying something more profound than. Dirt is dirt or dumb is dumb. Normal people don’t say this stuff because it’s obvious. My mistake for assuming a normal intelligence.
Is your next insight on the forums that 1=1?
And for the 58th time, the OP wasn’t denying the existence of RNG, so your profound assertion that RNG is, in fact, RNG makes even less sense. It’s a dumb statement and not relevant to the topic.
You are the guy who walked up to water, proclaimed it wet and thought others were stupid for being confused by your statement. They had the gall to think you might be making a point worth hearing instead of A=A. You blow my mind dude.
Sometimes, someone’s refusal to agree with your assertion isn’t a problem with them and is instead simply because what you are claiming is wrong, or, as is the case here, simply a gross oversimplification.
Being condescending about it really isn’t helping.
Am I missing something? Grizzle makes sense to me but this Riastlin fella appears to be:
I don’t want to assume 1 because that’s not charitable and he’s posted well thought out things elsewhere. I feel like it’s 2 or 3, but I can’t tell.
RNG is RNG… you’ve spent multiple posts writing down percentages and never once shown the capacity to understand what you’ve been arguing for. Just because Invincible has a .01% (made up because I’m too lazy to look up the drop chance and pointing it out to avoid you going on another pointless tangent you won’t understand) drop chance and tier has a 25% drop chance doesn’t mean you can’t get Invincible on the first drop and go an entire tier without getting a token drop. Alas, RNG is RNG.
Ok. I’m going to have to assume you are simple. Therefore…
You’re right Riastlin. RNG is RNG. Good job. Let me pat your head and send you back to kiddie table. There is a coloring book waiting on you.
Poor thing.
It’s ironic that you have a history of whining at people for how they respond to people on these forums. Alas, a hypocrite will eventually show their true colors.
You are growing up before my eyes. First you grasped the basic logic of 1=1/RNG=RNG and now you’ve learned the ad hominem fallacy.
Makes me proud.
I’m hoping you can go into other threads and spread your wisdom. Maybe giving them such nuggets of wisdom as hard is hard, bad design is bad design, or nerf is nerf. No need to stop with RNG is RNG.
The big thing people arent grasping about RNG is that whatever probability and drop rate (which is just an assumption based off people recording attempts and actual drops) is that its reset each and every time.
You keep confusing RNG with probability. You could give something a 50% drop rate. And not see it in 8 tries. People around me coule be getting it every time, but im 0/8.
I understand how RNG works so im not stressing. People who replace RNG with probability are going to whine and say with that drop rate they should have gotten it AT LEAST 4x over again.
Lets taken the famous coin flip. 2 sides. Heads and tails. I flip it 3 times. How many times can i get heads for all 3 flips?
The probability is 12.5% (⅛). RNG is me flipping the coin 300 times and never getting 3 heads in a row. Probability is saying i should have seen it happen 12 imes
This is likely my last reply here, but I honestly don’t understand Grizzle. My understanding is that when people complain about RNG they are, in fact, talking about the probability of them getting said item. This very thread was the OP wishing the drop rate (probability) of the rune bear to be increased because of the fact they hadn’t gotten it yet.
Has blizzard released what the drop rate is? Does anyone know what the drop rate actually is? Or are people just unlucky? Canr discuss probability without a static number set forth. We need a known variable before discussing that. Which we do not have.
I ask because, well, i got it on the first try without even knowing it was a thing.
OP and i are both victims of RNG. I say its fine because i was 1/1. Theyre complaining because theyre 0/x. Whos in the right and whos in the wrong?
Blizzard typically doesn’t release the drop rate of items. This doesn’t mean much because you can gather your own data with diligence or looking at wowhead. You aware the love rocket and invincible are exceeding rare right? Did blizzard release the drop rates on those or did you figure it out for yourself?
If you constantly farm a form like Mosa in a 15 person group for a month, every day. And you see roughly 1-2 forms drop on average for each kill. You can form a pretty good idea what the drop rate is. In my scenario it would be about 10% if my math is right after a couple of beers
30 days x 15 person raid = 450 opportunities
30 days x 1.5 drops per day = 45 drops average.
45/450=10%
So a 10% drop rate, on a daily limit, with a variable spawn timer. Which ironically, blizzard didn’t publish the spawn time or location. Yet you somehow figured that out, but drop rates somehow are different. Blizzard has to release them for you to have any idea.
/s
Edit: I would possibly agree with you if you only had your firsthand experience to judge these things by. But we have the internet which allows us to gather a data set which shows the rough probability of the infamous RNG you are dealing with per goal. Therefore you can turn mysterious RNG into a rough probability. Thus my whole point here.
The whole RNG is RNG way of thinking turns everything into a 50/50 chance.
Will I get the love rocket to drop?
Either it will or it won’t. 50/50 shot
That’s an inferior and less accurate way to think than going to wowhead or gathering data from your runs and the reports of others.
Sure. Ans thats how you estimate a drop rate as you’ve kindly shown. But probability isnt set in stone chances. Because thats not how RNG works.
How about those 40 man druid raid groups that don’t see a single drop (as supposedly reported in the other threads). That doesnt match the 10% probability that wowhead gives out (simply an example i dont know what wowhead reports).
How many people already have the form but are still killing the rare because it’s there and they’re there (which is the only way i kill rares). Skews your numbers now.
MY data is 100% drop rate though. And this why “RNG is RNG” keeps being repeated. You could have an 80% drop rate and this thread would still be created because someone fell inside that unlucky 20%.
Drop rates and respective probability only show you how often it SHOULD be seen.
RNG is what determines if its a) 100% or b) .333% regardless of what your math and WoWhead say.
RNG will always be present MMOs. Its part of what keeps people logging in day after day and week after week
Edit: RNG can be punishing yes, but it can also be rewarding. Like my Runebear on the first kill. But like everything else, no one talks aboit the positive outcomes but are always quick to vocalize anything negative