TLDR: Thinking of GDKPs as a hierarchical gold accumulation mechanism makes more sense than the simplified pictures we get from GDKP superfans or haters.
Some of the simplistic arguments we read on these forums every day:
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GDKPs make money because RMT whales spend 100,000s of gold on BIS / rare loot.
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GDKPs are just DKP with gold. We accumulate it in GDKP raids and spend it back.
Let’s start with the second one. The idea what gold is just recycled in GDKP raids clashes with the admission that GDKPs are among the most efficient ways to farm gold. In other words, if many players enjoy a high net profit from participating in those activities, and since GDKPs are zero-sum from the gold point of view, that means there must be an equivalent input of gold from other gold-generating mechanisms.
Does that mean that the gold comes from large single RMT transactions? Not necessarily. In fact it makes more sense to think of the GDKP economy hierarchically. Let’s say you’re a fresh 70 and you enter a T4/T5 GDKP as a buyer with your modest pot of gold. You buy some pieces, and eventually you could be a carry in the same raids, but of course over time the value of the same pieces goes down. So you probably won’t make your money back. You can have a lot of players in that situation, losing a bit of gold, with the gold accumulating up the GDKP “hierarchy”.
The players making a profit must be ahead of the gearing curve, and those making money from the most current content must have been ahead of the gearing curve before participating in GDKPs, as well as having a good amount of social capital on the server to be trusted to organize or participate in those. So it’s not exactly true that GDKPs “bypass” the social process of MMORPGs. In some way they are a very successful entreprise to leverage this process to accumulate in-game gold.
In this way the promise of “easy gold” by just participating in GDKPs is not unlike those made by multi-level marketing schemes. There’s a clear hierarchical structure and those who join late will not partake in the profits. Just as not all such schemes are illegal in real life, pro-GDKP players will say that they should be allowed, because at least the late joiners get gear; it’s a player-run catch-up mechanics for profit.
So coming back to the first point at the top, because GDKPs are so efficient as a gold accumulation mechanism, I find it actually easier to believe most big ticket items go to players that had success in the GDKP moneymaking game (i.e. already highly-geared players or their alts), rather than “RMT skippers” wanting to pay hundred of dollars in real money for those items. But it would be interesting to gather some data to verify this.
That doesn’t mean that GDKPs can’t benefit disproportionately from botted/RMT gold. But if so, I think it’s easier again to think of it again as being due to how wealth accumulates there, how they are often the final destination of gold from other sources (because you only need so many mats or consumes or mounts, but you can still improve your gear).