M+ Drop Math

[Vincent-nathrezim]

So I would like to discuss drop rates in M+ objectively for a moment. I am not trying to do anything other than to illustrate the math of farming M+. I will not draw any subjective conclusions. If my math is wrong, please correct me.

The base chance of getting loot is 20%, or exactly 1 in 5. There are 5 of you, and one piece of loot drops. (extra drops are covered below)

Lets say there are ten drops on the loot table for you in the particular dungeon you are in, which seems about average and is a nice number to work with, and you are farming for one of them in particular. You have a one in ten chance of getting that drop.

Since you will receive that drop one in ten times on a 20% (1 in 5) chance your calculations of receiving that drop are 2 in 100, or 2%.

If you succeed on timing a key that drop rate does not change, but you do receive a second shot at getting the item. So that would be two 2% chances at seeing the item you are after. It’s like completing the run twice.

If you do a great job and triple chest it (Time it on a 15 key or higher) , your looking at three 2% chances at seeing the item you are after. Again, it’s like completing the run three times.

(It is important to note that you don’t add these % chances up. Triple chesting is not a 6% chance, it is three 2% chances.)

For those who are kind of unfamiliar of how percents work or would like a more familiar comparison…
Hand of Justice dropped off Emperor Thaurissan at a 16% chance, and was considered pretty difficult to get for the time expense (but well worth the effort). So you are 8 times as likely to get that on a BRD run than you are getting your chosen item in an M+.

The legendary item Thori’dal the Stars Fury drops off of Kil’Jaden in Sunwell plateau. (Again this is a legendary item, and I would like to stress that) and has a 6.51% drop chance. About triple the chances of you getting your chosen M+ drop.

Bindings of the Windseeker, used to get yourself the Thunderfury, off of Garr in MC, drop at a rate of 4.08%, or roughly double the odds of you receiving the piece of loot you are after in an M+.

TLDR - The odds of getting an item from M+ are low. The odds of getting the item you want are VERY low. Farming the item you want, with a fully dedicated team triple-chesting each run is still very low.

[Osmigos-illidan]

Was thinking about this earlier in the week. In vanilla every boss drops an item, and each drop has a much more limited table to pick from, so every run you had a pretty decent chance of seeing any given item. Think I might go finish leveling my Classic paladin.

[Zemus-hyjal]

I think its just 2 items at most now unless you do super high keys.

[Vincent-nathrezim]

Ahh, I thought that the +3 upgrade was an extra loot as well.
In that case it’s even worse odds.

[Kalthaendron-wyrmrest-accord]

We can’t really assume this math is accurate. The drop rates for various items may be different, and personal loot (in the past) had bad luck protection built-in at a certain point that would boost your apparent mathematical odds.

As to comparisons with Classic… a 5 man mythic+ that can be spammed endlessly will still always yield vastly more gear than a 40 man raid, unless of course you’re the one dishing out the loot.

[Vortimer-proudmoore]

Successive trials (which we will treat as actual separate runs when one-chested plus N-runs, where N could be 2 or 3 for beating the timer significantly) have combinatorial probability.

If your chance is 2% on a single trial, then it is 7.8% for four trials. The formula looks like this:
Cumulative P = 1 - (1 - Single P)^N
Where Single P is the single trial drop rate and N is the number of trials ("^" is an exponent operator).

To have a reasonable 95% chance of getting an item with a 2% drop rate, one needs to run 150 trials… Even if you +3 chest every run, that’s 50 dungeon runs, which seems pretty excessive (and there’s still a 5% chance it would not have dropped).

I’m sure Blizzard “gets” how hard they made it, but it is pretty discouraging as a player trying to target a singular item from a particular dungeon. They’re likely response is something like “Yes if you only grind one dungeon for a specific piece of gear chances are slim. However, there are other comparable items available from different content, therefore increasing your chances. Oh and the great vault provides some protection!”

[Vortimer-proudmoore]

@Kalthaendron-wyrmrest-accord

personal loot (in the past) had bad luck protection built-in at a certain point that would boost your apparent mathematical odds.

I’ve heard this before, but I’ve never heard it from Blizzard. Is there a Blizzard source for this statement or is it just a long-standing player myth?

[Nuqular-bleeding-hollow]

Just take a break. Wait for 9.1 and see if they increase the odds in our favor.

[anon72158313]

There are more things to take into consideration. Another person may get the drop you’re after, the dungeon may have more loot for your other gear.

I think I can agree the loot chances are low for ‘specific dungeon pugging’ but I can’t advise that as a good gearing strategy.

IMO do the following instead;

• Do m+ (4-10)
• Do PvP (rated), no need to rank but just messing around will get you 1400 eventually. Don’t worry you can be bad.
• Get weekly quest item if there is any
• Vault to fill for best item upgrade
• Fill rest with PvP item and rinse repeat above

Decent ilvl?

• At this point target pieces (significantly slower).

This should eventually get you above 200 and in a prime position for being able to get AOTC for current heroic raid.

[Truthserum-tichondrius]

@Vincent-nathrezim

TLDR - The odds of getting an item from M+ are low. The odds of getting the item you want are VERY low. Farming the item you want, with a fully dedicated team triple-chesting each run is still very low.

And yet still easily doable, as I have proven putting together a set with max crit (44% crit and 1% haste) just for giggles. About ilvl206. All pieces from M+ that have prioritized crit, all individually farmed, deliberately, while pugging, and finally, with relatively minor effort IMO

[Kalthaendron-wyrmrest-accord]

Blizz will never open the door too wide into their loot methods… they don’t want to spoil the mysteriousness of the black box after all.

But the fact that they have confirmed the existence of bad luck protection before, on bonus rolls, on Legion legendaries, etc. when met with waves of complaints tells me they have the tech and probably do make use of it to some extent, rather than risk severe outliers.

But I could be wrong. It just stands to reason that Blizz would normalize randomness in some way.

[anon15371100]

@anon72158313

Do m+ (4-10)

If you strike out on your M0’s on loot you can’t get into +2s let alone 4+

@anon72158313

Do PvP (rated), no need to rank but just messing around will get you 1400 eventually. Don’t worry you can be bad.

prepare to be butt blasted by 200+ilvl people who want to pvp. (not a fun time to people who don’t like pvp)

@anon72158313

Vault to fill for best item upgrade

I mean after heroic dungeons its raid or die, you only have 8 M0s to do to get your ilvl to a point where people will look at your application to their +3 and the vault requires 10 M+ run to give you decent odds on an upgrade. Good luck getting into 10 of even the lowest keys with a 180 gs

[anon72158313]

I’ve been on this journey and starting on my druid now. Intentionally doing mythic +2’/3s on it because it’s a class I haven’t tried before.

I will get 200+ gear because of saving up conquest and from vault each week. It’s basically inevitable.

I was asked to join a mythic, this is her at the moment, still a bit behind and haven’t done all mythics yet.
https://worldofwarcraft.com/en-us/character/us/dreadmaul/cybelin

When I’m starting off I tend to make My own parties. It’s crazy how strong people you can tank and they basically carry your key anyway. There’s an overabundance of dps and lack of tanks so it’s fun to fill that niche and take advantage of it.

[Robokappa-sargeras (Robokappa)]

@Osmigos-illidan

Was thinking about this earlier in the week. In vanilla every boss drops an item, and each drop has a much more limited table to pick from, so every run you had a pretty decent chance of seeing any given item.

same is true for mythics. it’s only Mythic+ that dont drop loot.

[Slayergrim-illidan (Slayergrim)]

I have resorted to weekly PVP conquest to gear up in addition to my measly raid and m+ drops. I have a few 184’s that I only expect to upgrade to 200 via the conquest vendor because the odds of my specific slot dropping in a raid or m+ are very low like you mentioned.

[Wariya-stormrage (Wariya)]

Yeah , seems like the best option to combat Rng . Best thing is if you get Conquest rewards then all you need is 1.4 k rating and can upgrade it via honor to 213.

[Vincent-nathrezim]

@Wariya-stormrage

then all you need is 1.4 k rating and can upgrade it via honor to 213.

Sadly, this.

M+ caps at 210 for a +15 run.

[Vortimer-proudmoore]

@Vincent-nathrezim

M+ caps at 210 for a +15 run.

For end-of-dungeon loot, which has a terrible drop rate. The vault for +15 drops 226… (tables here). Running four +15s, if you can do that, would give two to choose from.

M+ end-of-run seems to be what the OP is talking about though… grinding 10 keys at the same level to have 1 choice among 3 options that are randomly selected from from all eight dungeons, and only on Tue do you get that reward for such grinding… seems bound to disappoint, but at least it’s 226 ilvl options.

[Vincent-nathrezim]

@Vortimer-proudmoore

M+ end-of-run seems to be what the OP is talking about though

Yes
/10 char

[Fenrir-dethecus]

Glad Mythic gear drop rates got nerfed… no way you should be achieving raid level gear without raiding , same has been said towards the pvp community who don’t do Epsort arena, the only thing mythic gear should be good for is pre-raiding gear just like BG gear is pre to arena/rated esport garbo

infact mythic gear should be on par with unrated BG’s