Loot rng is not so rng after all

so I have been tracking the numbers to find out why I was having such crappy loot drops. well it turns out that the loot rng isn’t so rng after all. it appears the fix is in from blizzard to keep us playing. on all of my toons that I have been tracking for the last 3 months it show I have a 43% more chance to receive a loot item that I already have. now that includes an upgraded version of a piece as well. so if you have 375 ring you may get a 380 version of that ring while still holding a 355 ring and so on. so yea they have fixed the loot system to keep us playing which makes sense on their end but is frustrating as hell on my end. the grind is boring as hell just to end up with a piece I already have. if anything needs fixed it is this. maybe enough people complain they will fix this. I put in a ticket about who to forward this to and I got a crickets which pretty much says go away we know and it is working as intended and we don’t care it makes us money.

Forum Mod Edit: This post has been edited by a moderator due to language. https://us.battle.net/forums/en/code-of-conduct/

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Do you buy your tinfoil hats off the rack or have them custom made?

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This number doesn’t really say much given that, if you’re doing something like Mythic+ or raiding, you’re going to consistently see the same pool of items in various levels of quality.

Your issue most likely stems from repeating content that doesn’t have very many different rewards from what you’ve already done, and also the fact that gear hits a plateau at a certain extent based on the content completed.

I don’t think Blizzard has some sort of vile code built into the game that ensures you see useless items as drops. I do think they don’t have any code in the game that prevents useless drops, though, and whether that’s a good or bad thing is quite debatable.

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What would a GM have to do with how the RNG system works? At best, if you think it’s broken (as in not working as Blizz intends it to) then you post in the Bug Report Forums.

If you’re suggesting they change how it works, then you can use the in-game suggestion feature.

But what you described is still random.

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Unless you have a sample size in the Hundreds, any statistics you have will be insanely skewed.

Even then, unless you have a sample size in the thousands, any statistics you have will be heavily skewed.

Unless you have a sample size in the tens of thousands, any statistics you have will be inaccurate.

Considering the numbers of items, the numbers of encounters, and the numbers of different traits that items can drop with. You would need a sample size in the hundreds of thousands to have an acceptable margin of error for declaring if there is, or is not an intentional sabotage of loot.

Anything less than that is conspiracy garbage.

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well 3 months on 3 different toons is a pretty good sample size. using world quests, dungeons, lfr and mythic is really the only pool you can use. so I figure this pool is the only you can use.

Blizzard time-gate everything. I don’t see why they wouldn’t make RNG abit worse to keep players playing for longer.

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This kind of gives me the impression that you’re reaching a gear plateau due to not attempting more challenging content such as high M+ keys, or difficulties of raiding beyond LFR. Your highest keys this season, at least according to the Armory, have been 2’s, and you’ve not set foot in BDA other than the first wing of LFR.

Despite that, you’re 393.

If you want better gear, do more challenging content. You aren’t going to get upgrades from WQs, Mythic+ keys that are below 8-15, or from BDA raids below Heroic difficulty.

You’ve stacked the deck for your numbers, it would seem, by not taking part in content that provides the upgrades you claim to be seeking.

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Two problem.

  1. Forums has for months been saying same thing from other people. That same loot been dropping. So either all lying or something broke? so everyone a liar?

  2. Does anyone no the coding for drops? if not. then how can you say it not happening? What access do you have game we do not?

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I would be interested to see your data set.

No it’s not. Droprates are determined the entire playerbase on a macro level, not an individual character or account micro level. The only way to get an appropriate sample size is to look at the entire population of level 120 characters in WoW to determine if loot drops are working correctly.

Spoiler alert: they are.

The forums aren’t representative of a real issue, because nobody’s coming here and posting, “Loot works just fine, thanks!” in their OP. People will only start a thread about it if they believe it’s a problem.

The same thing happens with the tech support forum. People think an issue is widespread just because they see others post about something similar, but that doesn’t mean that it’s happening to everyone.

Wowhead drop rates. From what I understand, they’re pretty accurate since they’re an aggregate from the portion of the playerbase that uses the Wowhead addon.

I would bet money OP has only tracked item levels and slots obtained, not their sources, based on what I observed previously on his Armory profile.

This thread is rather like dumping a cooler full of steaks on the ground, cooking them without cleaning them off, and then complaining that they all taste like burnt dirt.

Yes, of course they do. You didn’t take the steps to ensure that they wouldn’t.

I think 97percent of the stuff I read on the interwebs is 99percent true.

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I have mine custom made thank you very much. I like mine fancy!

:rofl::rofl:
Because nothing going on with this game lately remotely shows evidence that theyre TRYING actively to increase play time.

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well 3 months on 3 different toons is a pretty good sample size.

Oh boy that was a good laugh.

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Sorry dude, you can’t include upgrades as “the same item”. The higher ilvl item makes you more powerful just like a unique drop would.

That common core math isn’t doing you any favors :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I can’t see Mythic+ Dungeons totals on the Armory, but I can see how many raids you’ve done, and how many possible Challenger’s bounties you might have opened by looking at a calendar.

You have a maximum sample size of end game content on this character of 46, not counting Mythic+ Dungeon runs.

Multiply that by 3, and you have a maximum non-Mythic+ Sample size of 138 drops.

That is not enough to provide a reliable data set that can demonstrate a trend without succumbing to streaks and outliers.

It takes hundreds of coin tosses just to do that with a simple coin flip where the only results are heads and tails.

With all the possible loot within WoW, you need tens of thousands of samples to be able to provide the evidence necessary for proving that claim.

That isn’t to say you don’t have valid feedback. I hate RNG too. The claim that it’s rigged should be left out, though, because none of us individually can provide evidence to prove that. The expansion simply won’t last long enough to give us the opportunity to collect that data.

The feeling that the loot you are receiving isn’t meaningful is what you should be stressing within your feedback, and will likely lead to a more effective change in the loot mechanics.

I want to believe you, but 43% out of nowhere really wont change my mind…

Could you show us some statistics?

Like I said I do not know. I just know I hear all the time they get same drop rate. On forums and in game. For weeks. I have seen my toon get three of same things in a row for a few weeks running. How got me. I do not have access to the code they use. So probably we all lying and it working good. No way can coding go wrong.

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