So, I’m sure a lot of you guys have noticed that, well… there’s just, not too many of us anymore. DPS DKs seem to be a dying breed, Frost most of all. There’s a lot of things that pushed it towards this place, but, ill be the first to point out… it isn’t tuning. DPS DK has been tuned pretty damn well this entire expansion, yet, there’s barely anyone playing it.
So, lets talk about it, see if we can get to the root of “why is this happening?” Obviously, this is a super subjective question and everyone will have their own opinions. Lets start with my observations, and some data to back it up, as is usual with me. This wont be a super technical/math heavy post like i usually go for, instead its more opinion, inferred information (with references to that data where its presented).
My first theory, its just stale.
DK in general, hasn’t seen a rework, redesign or literally any substantial core rotational changes in nearly 7 years. Its the same old song and dance as it was in Legion. Of course there has been minor tweaks here and there, new toys to play with that shake things up minutely, but the core has always remained the same.
So, lets take a good ol journey down memory lane, to Nighthold. One of the most well loved raids for Frost DK.
Gotta use the ol waybackmachine to get the data from the time, but here it is
https://web.archive.org/web/20170606030111/http://www.simulationcraft.org/reports/Raid_T19M_NH.html
And Aberrus data was taken from here
http://simulationcraft.org/reports/T30_Raid.html
So, lets compare to current Breath Frost, since that’s the build being used here in Nighthold.
So, lets start with % of globals spent on each ability
Obliterate
Nighthold - 39.77% of globals
Aberrus - 47.77% of globals
Howling Blast
Nighthold - 25.5% of globals
Aberrus - 29.43% of globals
Frost Strike
Nighthold - 15.97% of globals
Aberrus - 4.3% of globals
Total of these 3 abilities
Nighthold - 81.24%
Aberrus - 81.5%
All in all, really, not too different, these 3 buttons account for near identical portions of our overall global uses, about 81%. Only major difference is, we traded some Frost Strike casts, for Howling Blast and Obliterate casts vs Nighthold. But, all in all, its still the same 3 buttons being pressed in slightly differing quantities.
Well, how bout Unholy? Maybe its seen some changes…?
So, same experiment, this time with Death Coil, Clawing Shadows, and Festering Strike.
Death Coil
Nighthold - 37.06% of globals
Aberrus - 38.7% of globals
Clawing Shadows
Nighthold - 33.53% of globals
Aberrus - 28.87% of globals
Festering Strike
Nighthold - 12.7% of globals
Aberrus - 10.01% of globals
Total of these 3 abilities
Nighthold - 83.29% of globals
Aberrus - 77.58% of globals
Okay, unholys a bit more different! thats good, right? well… the difference here? its, well, just soul reaper, which accounts for that missing 6% of globals. Soul Reaper wasnt taken in Nighthold, so didn’t eat up those globals like it does today. Otherwise, would be scarily identical.
so, in comparison to when the sim was run… may 28th 2017, and today, may 27th 2023… nothings really changed in terms of the core rotation, like, really at all. Leading to this feeling of everything just being stale, out dated and really, really showing its age… and let me tell you, lots of things from the Legion redesign did not age well. And yet, havent been changed… and i have to question why?
When we look at the statistics on what DPS specs are being played in the last 3 tiers of raid, in heroic since heroic players are less likely to be chasing the meta. We see a drastic decline in the overall representation of DPS DK players from Sepulcher, to now Aberrus. To make it easier, i compiled that data here
If we click through the tabs, can see DPS DK represented around 7% of all DPS players in Sepulcher, not amazing, but, far from the worst. Compared to just 5% of all DPS players in Aberrus. The 2nd least represented class. Even classes with just 1 dps spec, Demon Hunter, Evoker, and Priest are more represented in the raid. Only one lower? Monk.
Then we compare it to Aberrus, and its abysmal. Frost DK down from ~4% of all DPS players in raids… to just 0.62% at the time of writing. This isn’t really a new thing either. About a year ago, i had a similar thought. Did tuning impact a specs representation in a given season? The answer was generally no. But, if youre curious, i do have all that data here. Its missing Shadowlands Season 4, since at the time i did it, Season 4 was unreleased. But, feel free to click through each season and check out the total population values that were seen across M+, Heroic and Mythic Raids. Might shock you.
Now, the interesting takeaway here. Given that DK has 3 specs, ideally, we would see a 33.33~% distribution across all 3 specs in terms of population. But, even in this massive sample i took (minimum of 4.5 million samples per season across warcraftlogs and raider.io), thats just not the case.
If we look at Shadowlands season 1. 68.33% of DKs recorded were DPS, 31.67% Tanks. Thats pretty close to expected. But, that was also DPS DKs time in the sun, the last time we were truly good, fun, before the novelty wore off, and we were nuked from orbit. Step ahead in time to Shadowlands season 2. Suddenly, only 60.83% of DKs recorded were DPS, 39.17% being Tanks. Thats a pretty massive drop for DPS representation, and skewed things heavily towards blood. Starting to get unhealthy for the class though… then, season 3 happened. Suddenly, 45.27% of DKs recorded were Blood. Nearly as many Blood DKs as there were DPS DKs, and DPS dks have 2 specs to choose from. Now, as you know, DPS DK was pretty decently tuned in season 3 of Shadowlands… so, what gives? Whyd it drop so much?
This leads us to theory 2. The fun factor.
Going back to the Sepulcher data from Shadowlands, both DPS DK specs were really quite well tuned. Both above average in the raid. Yet, the total DPS population for DPS DK barely increased. While Blood DK absolutely rocketed (a 70% increase from s2 to s3 of SL). So, whats the difference? Blood DK just got an absolutely banger tier set. Unholys tier set was too limited/niche in use, as was Frosts. So, the fun factor went absolutely through the roof for Blood DK, and people flocked to it in droves.
Now, some may get mixed up, that strong = fun. Well, for some people it is, but, majority of players find fun in just, playin the game the way they want to. And the data i gathered for the sheet in shadowlands, was targeted at about the top 10% of the playerbase in terms of skill. Pulling from raider.io and only heroic or higher in raids, and those who had made it into the m+ leaderboard for the week (thus able to be seen by raider.io). Yet, when DK was “overpowered” in Castle Nathria, it was the 4th lowest in terms of population. And had the healthiest spread of DPS and Tank players ive ever recorded.
Right now, DK has “insane” utility in grip, AMZ, AMS, one of the tankiest classes in the game. Yet, its representation is piss poor. People aren’t playing DK. If we account for Tanks and Healers as well, DK as a whole represents less than 5% of the total playerbase of the game. Theres 13 classes, if all things were perfect, we would expect 7.7% of players to be on each class in the game on average. Obviously, thats not the case. Players are instead moving towards whats fresh, whats new, whats fun.
So, whats fresh/new/fun right now? Evoker, Retribution, and Hunters. Something ive noticed in my many, many years playing WoW is, people LOVE new stuff. and find it incredibly fun to get into it, see whats new, see if they can master the new specs. Doesnt matter if its stupidly strong, its the new hot thing, they want a piece of it. Before some of them fall back to their main of choice (which statistically speaking, is probably hunter, druid, shaman or paladin, as these 4 made up nearly 50% of the population across s1-3 of shadowlands).
So, lets discard some theories, and clear up some misconceptions then. First one i want to press is utility. In a heroic specific setting, there’s no correlation to group/raid utility, and spec representation. Death Grip will ensure DKs are brought to raid, clearly false given this data, so, its obviously not as strong as people think it is. Tuning means a spec will be more represented, also provably false. Retribution paladin right now is insanely middle of the pack, not amazing by any means, yet, has 50% more players than the next higher spec, shadow priest, which is also decidedly mid right now.
So, whats that leave? well, People like new things, people like fun things. DK as a whole hasnt felt “new” since the reworks in legion, nearly 7 years ago.
So, im calling for it now. For the health of DK, for the health of the game, its time for a rework/redesign of DK as a whole. Keep putting it off, and the class as a whole is going to die out, as its already doing. People aren’t playing DK, and honestly, i think its painfully obvious why. Its flawed all around. Lots of the mentality around its utility, flawed. Lots of the design decisions around resources, flawed. The fact that its still acting as 3 different classes all under the same “class”, rather than being subsets, specializations if you will, of the base class is flawed. Frost DK ignoring half of its resources, flawed. Unholy being stuck with a mechanic that was objectively decided to be bad by the rogue designers back in WoD and changed (festering wounds vs target specific combo points), is flawed. Blood having objectively WAY more utility than the DPS variants, flawed. Unholy benefiting insane amounts from trinkets, flawed (youre fixing this for demo in 10.1.5, why the heck is unholy ignored? You mentioned wanting to flatten out the peaks and valleys for Demo, so lets compare. https://imgur.com/ccKXsAT … its the same picture.). The class talent tree having the choice between utility, and damage, flawed (and outright against what the stated goals were of the class trees). Unholy bricking 20% of its talents, and half its tier set(s) by using control undead, flawed.
So, lets get off this obviously out of control train ride to doomsville, and rethink things, please?
anyways, that’s all for me today. Ive given my opinions on why i think things are going the way they are, but, how bout you guys? What are your opinions on all this?