so I went and bought 9 boxes of gear. and out of all the various pieces of loot you can get from dungeons delves etc. I got 5 wax whistles and 4 pairs of stalwart boots.
is the wow RNG roll broken or something?
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9 boxes and you think rng is broken?
statistics101 please
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sure. ball park amount of items available on the loot table for the valorstone box is everything in delves raid and dungeons. so ballpark 150 choices for a leather wearer.
so the odds of any item is 1/150.
now… to get an item 5 times in a row like I did. its 1/150^5
and my calculator spits out
1.3168724279835390946502057613169e-11
which is 1/75,937,500,000
I have a 1 in 75 billion chance of getting the same item 5 times in a row.
so yeah RNG is broken. you should learn to maths.
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You can never get a WoW white knight to admit RNG is beyond broken (I actually think it’s fixed, intentional).
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random is random…you have the same odds with one as you do with 100
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ask a statician… or flip a coin 100 times and count the heads and tails then try to predict the 101 toss from those results…
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I’m betting you didn’t get 5 wax whistles in a row.
I did though, hence this post. its practically impossible to get 5 wax whistles unless something is broken, either they are salting the RNG or the loot table isn’t as diverse as it is supposed to be, or they are snap shotting like a 5 item loot table per 1 minute interval or something
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Sorry, but if there are hundreds of possible rewards and you get five to ten of the exact same reward in a row, something is off. Not talking about flipping a coin with two possible outcomes. The odds are very much against repetitive outcomes with that many variables.
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On each individual roll, that’s true. For a cumulative series of rolls with the same outcome, that’s cumulative binomial probability. If the chance is X% on a single trial, then the likelihood of getting the same item 5 times in a row is X%^5 and the chance of not ever getting that item after five attempts is 1 - (1 - X%)^5.
The likelihood of your 101st coin toss being heads or tails is 50%. That’s not the qustion being asked though… it’s the likelihood of flipping heads five times in a row, which is not 50%, it’s 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 50%^5= 3.1%.
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Broke? As in not working correctly? Probably not.
Broke? As in rigged to string along the player? Absolutely.
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The Undermine Equipment Chests only drop dungeon gear from the M+ loot pool.
The odds aren’t nearly as steep as you think.
It could be some kind of knock-on effect bug from the Collector’s Bounty loot changes. Seeing that many items in multiples that high leads me to suspect that, at least.
It’s very funny that people will just make threads that betray they don’t understand anything.
You got proof for that? Wild claim. Ultimately it wouldn’t be shocking if it were true, but never has my experience indicated anything of the sort.
Ya you’re the one person in the world it happened to. If this happened to multiple people you’d have a point, but like, look up what random means.
Its not broke, it’s designed to give you crap you dont need or want so you keep playing trying to get what you do want.
If the game let you get the good stuff you’d quit playing once you got it
I guess I get all the good stuff so you get all the bad stuff. It must be balanced.
If you think thats broken rng, dont try upgrading gear to max in Diablo 4 with the actual modifiers you want.