Thank you for the confirmation! The RNG has gone extremely unfavorably then!
In your stubborn haste to deny the Gambler’s Fallacy as linked, you just fully described…the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no “more and more likely”. The chance is the exact same, regardless of past outcomes. You are talking about probability, which is completely different and totally irrelevant to discussing loot tables in this game.
Yes, and you are stirring that by continuing to insist there is a bug when it’s been stated multiple times that there’s not one. It doesn’t help to propagate falsehoods, nor does it help to continue to give others an option that is ultimately futile.
As much as you may hate it, sometimes “working as intended” and “keep checking the BMAH” is the correct answer.
Unfortunately, I found myself back here since the blue post was linked in a different thread, so I’ll go ahead and address you one more time.
It’s clear you did not comprehend my explanation of LLN v. Gambler’s Fallacy, so I suggest you re-read it since I’m not going to explain yet again that it is likelihood over a sequence of events we are concerned about (fair vs unfair coin).
I do take offense to your following excerpt:
Since my guidance has been quite consistent with what Vrakthis stated afterwards:
Vrakthris is free to correct me if I’m wrong here (and I highly encourage being corrected by them), but CS blues do NOT have access to loot tables/BMAH rotations (we, the community, often call them ‘rotations’ although they’re effectively random loot tables still), and the lack of indication of removal appears to be based on documented notes only, without analysis of loot tables or code. Thus, the suggestion was made yet again (after I myself made the suggestion numerous times) to make posts in Bug Reports if we feel there’s a bug.
I don’t understand why there seems to be an axe to grind with me when my guidance (post it on bug reports) has been (indirectly) backed up by blue text; providing correct advice to others is not “propagating falsehoods” or giving “others an option that is ultimately futile”.
I think it might be best to agree to disagree at this point. Each counterpoint is including language that is not really productive.
Correct. The only ones that would really have access to specific loot tables would be QA and the Development teams. However, when a change is made to the game there are processes that are generally followed that I do have access to. Such as hotfix and other update notifications. The previous statement made by Kalviery in August did include a direct check-in with the QA/Dev teams to confirm how it intended to work in the current state. There is no indication that the state has changed since that check-in.
Indeed. I am not a Game Developer or a Community Manager so if you do not trust the information I am providing the only alternative is really to report the matter as a bug to have our QA team take a look. QA will likely not be able to reply to the post itself, so there won’t be a means to receive a confirmation but if a bug is found it would likely show up in the Hotfix blog once addressed.
Thank you Vrak for the additional insight. And to be clear, it’s not that I don’t trust your ability to provide information you are aware of, but more of a “things break without anyone knowing (bugs)” line of thinking if that makes sense.
Thank you again for the additional feedback. Happy New Years!
Basically you are saying you got access to patch notes , like we all have and in the patch notes it doesn’t say that it got removed .
Theres documentation from several players and even a developer of one of the most used and popular addons in the game TSM regarding its disappearance the amount of passion people like us have invested in the game , constantly farming the gold waiting every day at server reset , checking servers , using every tool available has to mean something to you guys .
I agree you can only tell us what you know appreciate the post , we will keep on posting on bug reports until it gets checked because everything points out , there is a bug and it should be looked at , happy holidays.
That I can agree 100%. Bugs are funny things and pop up without any real rhyme or reason. Butterflies wing flaps in the amazon…
No, that isn’t what I’m saying at all. I have access to internal documentation that takes place when an aspect of the game is changed. The only updates there have been is when the mount was originally removed from the Vendor, when it was added to the BMAH, and when it was added to the Unclaimed Black Market Containers.
I’m sure that would be something our QA team would be interested in, which is why I recommended submitting a Bug Report.
I know you said you are not following anymore but i feel this is still pertinent to the coin flip you mentioned.
The fallacy is assuming each item has the same chance to generate.
The bruto mount may have a 1/100th of one percent chamce to be generated. Mimron could have a 5 percent chance, and so on and so forth. Emphasis on could. Obviously made up math to paint the picture
We simply dont know theae numbers, however. That being the case is why i do not believe it a bug.
This not an us vs them thing. Hopefully i have explained why i feel the way i do adequately enough to support my line of thought here
It hasn’t appeared. That does not mean it has fully disappeared. So far as Vrak is showing, it has not been “shadow removed”. It is still on the loot table as a very rare mount that can pop up from time to time.
His point is that after long enough, it is more likely that the mount is gone, and it isn’t just a streak of bad luck with a very rare mount.
Of course we can’t know with a certainty. But if the mount used to be showing up ~2 times a month, and then suddenly hasn’t appeared in 5-6 months, the odds of it no longer dropping are pretty good. If those details are accurate, the odds of not seeing it for 5-6 months is probably 1 in a million give or take. Sure it could show up tomorrow and that was just an incredible streak of luck. Or maybe the data is wrong, and it’s been dropping unobserved, or doesn’t drop randomly or whatever. But it’s probably more likely to just not be dropping.
am i missing something? if it’s showing that it dropped less the 2 weeks ago, how is this “it’s been shadow removed altogether “?
I think the point they were trying to make was that the ones showing on DFA could be from opening the Crates versus directly purchasing from the BMAH.
The point of contention that this thread is based on, is that the normal BMAH listing for the Bruto could possibly be glitched or shadow removed.
PLEASE NOTE: The above conjecture has not been proven.
Their point is one of a lot of theories but little else. I say that with what I’ve seen from their ranting on GD and elsewhere. They like to say a lot of things but cherry-pick what is being told to them and then runs off into the sunset as they did with what Vrak clarified above. Something else that should be emphasized from Vrakthris:
It may have been a glitch before that it was showing up so often. It may be a glitch now. It may all be RNG across the board.
People who think it is a bug, they need to report it on the bug forum as such. The rest of us who think otherwise will go on about our day.
gotcha thanks for that i haven’t had enough coffee to read the forums i think lol
Well it’s good we at least got some sort of official feedback on this at long last.
I respect the time and effort non-bot people put in to get this mount during BFA but it really is a huge advantage for gold farmers and disadvantage for new gold farmers not having this mount. Bring it back and give everyone the chance to get one please!
If you would like to make a suggestion I would suggest starting a new thread in GD or using the in game suggestion tool.
Feedback regarding game development is not collected on these particular sub forums(support) and the blues here are not tasked with gathering or passing this kind of information along.
people want this mount so bad. but it was too much money on hands. we will see later in future.