Is Outlaw Dead post 9.1.5?

I’ve never liked that chart because it doesn’t really tell the whole story. It is only accounting for single buffs or two bad buffs. I’d like to see a chart that combines two good buffs that synergize well or even 3 buffs which isn’t that uncommon with count the odds. When I get two+ good buffs my damage increases feel exponential and not linear and my logs always agree with this. Any time I get a top 50 parse or higher (especially a top 10 parse) there was always multiple points in the fight where I had multiple good buffs. I’ve never had a top 100 parse where I rerolled a single GM multiple times.

A good example I have is a month ago I got a rank 6 parse on heroic gaurdian without windfury and forgetting to pot doing 10.2k dps while simming about 10.1k (2.12 million damage done). Yesterday I did the same boss WITH windfury and a heroic veinripper and only did 9.8k dps while simming 11.2k dps now. The recent fight was longer so I reduced it to the same duration as the old one @ 3:27 which made my relative dps on that fight now 10k (2.07 million damage done). I did 200 less dps and 500k less flat damage in the same time with windury + pot + veinripper dot (53k) while simming 1k dps higher than I did for the first fight.

Possible RNG factors

  • Combat potency gains -
    Fight 1: 1917
    Fight 2: 1836

  • Sinister Strike casts -
    Fight 1: 83
    Fight 2: 77

Neither of these are different enough from the other to explain a significant 500k flat damage difference. Less than 100 energy and 6 ss casts does not = 500k damage. Especially when you remember that on the 500k less damage fight I had windfury that accounts for 3% of my damage (65k) + dps pot that did 50k damage and the bleed from veinripper that did 53k damage. So we are more realistically looking at a difference of 668k flat damage just missing for some reason.

Guess what the actual reason was? The first kill I got a 5 buff with a true bearing uptime of 56% and broadside of 32%. These broadside durations were always with true bearing as well. Not just single buffs. The second kill I didn’t even have any notable double buffs, just garbage ones and I ended the fight with a TB uptime of 47% and broadside of 14% which only came from count the odds so you only got a couple globals with it. They never aligned together to pump each other for exponential increases.

Had I gotten the same roll luck on the first one I could have beat my sim without factoring in potion then get another +3% from windfury and 50k damage from pot which would have been 11,775 dps on that fight. 11.8k would have put me at a very similar rank that my first fight got for it’s time. That would have been a rank 3 pull. Instead I got a rank 239.

Good rolls were the difference of a top 300 and a top 3 and those rolls cost me 1.8k dps which is 15.37% of my damage not some some ridiculous 0.06% that chart leads you to believe.

3 Likes

Basically that. I am pretty much giving up on M+ as OL. Jut swapped to Assa to go full time raiding and going to stick pushing M+ on my healer instead.
I ran PF 65 times or something & still no Pox so I am losing all forms of motivation.

Not entirely true. 15% Phys DR that rogues bring is quite significant, not to mention stunlock combos (and there is more to us as well in M+) , but in .5, heck yeah, we will be gutted. Even all of our utility combined won’t match uncapped raw damage of every other class/spec in higher keys. ESPECIALLY on Tyrannical weeks where in higher keys if you ain’t tripple pulling, you’re doing it work kinda thing.

1 Like

If you look at those two logs you can see that the answer between the two is in the old log you simply crit more than the most recent one. You could break that down down to a slightly higher BTE uptime sure but this could still happen regardless of that.

Also, you could make the claim that they matter on farm bosses that get bursted but in a boss fight that’s around 5 minutes or longer you will simply average out unless you’re somehow chaining 5 buffs. I still collect parses even though I don’t have fusion amp and have a completely useless dead trinket in that slot instead; got rank 5 mythic Remnant this week actually.

For example here’s a pull on mythic Nine from two weeks ago. It was #3 in the world though it’s dropped to #15 now but my highest rolls on that fight were SS and GM by far and the others weren’t even close.
https://www.warcraftlogs.com/reports/DFP81Zkhn9NzgGJT#fight=19&type=summary&source=16

Why do you think I had a slightly higher BtE uptime? And also a higher AR uptime? And a higher GS uptime. And crit more because of these things? Because I got rolls that enabled resets on them.

2 Likes

You can still get around 84% uptime on BTE without god rolls as long as you’re getting SS procs. If you want to convince yourself that buffs matter more than they do you’re more than welcome to. Both sims and actual situations both show if a fight goes on long enough your rolls simply do not matter.

If you go back to your logs enough though your frost set was rank 3 at the time your Winds of Winter crit 80% of the time with 10 hits vs 43% with 11 hits at rank 5 on your most recent pull. Is your BTE uptime lower? Yes it is but you weren’t getting lucky with WoW crits and you can’t just say that that little bit of higher uptime on BTE would have made that difference when you could still, you know, not crit.

Fights don’t go on long enough to even out. Even the longer fights have short period of times where you do damage then period you wait. This entire tier is littered with them.

I specifically used my fight as an example because it is a patchwerk fight with basically zero mechanics that I have multiple logs of that have a high variance. Your fight isn’t really relevant because your entire parse is decided the moment you get hit with shards or purple bombs. Like ofc you can get a top pull with crap rolls because even if you have perfect 5 buffs and spend half the fight in China you aren’t going to parse.

2 Likes

On heroic they don’t but on mythic they absolutely do. You can also check debuffs on that pull and see that I did get fragments twice on that pull.

You cloaked your fragments instantly and dispelled it into your group which is not a good idea. You could make it land on one of your tanks who are busy swapping to drops stacks.

Wrong, I did cloak it but I ran out to the stack point to do so instead and if you wanted to use that as an example you only got it once in your most recent mythic pull cloaked it off as well looking at your timeline.

Yes and we learned it gets dispelled onto a tank and is not worth.

If you run to the stack and cloak it will always go to somebody in the stack. Cloaking is no different than dispelling and it does not change how the debuff interacts with players. If it went to your tank it’s because you were closest to the tank.

You were standing directly on top of them at 4:04 which is when you activated it.

1 Like

Also shield recall rng and the amount of spells the boss casts while invulnerable can play a large factor. So does kill speed, and lusting on pull. This fight has a crap load of variance.

I said I was? I don’t understand your point.

If you read those posts back to back it does not favor that claim at all.
1: You incorrectly claim that I’m dispelling on top of my entire group
2: I explained what I’m actually doing
3: You use the ability incorrectly and somehow say that it’s not worth doing because it gets dispelled onto the tank

Nothing stated claims that you dispelled in the group while also implying cloak instantly sends it to the tank so I went to Warcraftlogs to look at the replay. Now we’re here stunlocked in a conversation that’s going nowhere.

1 Like

Look, I’m really not sure what your goal is with the nine logs. But again I chose my fight because it has zero variance. The biggest obstacle is the aoe you run out and lose less than 2 seconds of uptime so it works as a good control + everyone always lusts at the exact same time + there is no random boss RNG that can brick your parse. The entire point of my reply was to show that combat potency and SS procs do not explain outlaw variance. Both pulls had nearly identical numbers. The difference is the former pull with good buffs I was easily able to keep up GS BtE and a higher uptime of AR. If you would like to delve deeper into this then do your own comparisons to your logs on this boss. A random pull on the nine analyzed by itself is like the most useless thing ever.

Yes it can be dispelled onto anyone including a tank.

If you want to argue semantics over an issue of player skill then you’re welcome to do it with yourself seeing as this conversation is going literally nowhere.

2 Likes

So showing logs proving that SS and CP isn’t the end-all-be-all to outlaw variance is a player skill issue? This was the entire point I was trying to make and you pull some random Nine log and try to compare it to a completely different fight and not even with itself. I really don’t know what you are trying to accomplish so I guess /shrug have a good one.

I think the intent with RtB is to empower us with more choice in our rotation, but they just never implemented it correctly because rolling with skill needs to be more rewarding. Then again Outlaw is one of the highest APM specs making it hard to fit in more skill based variance (as opposed to the RnG crapfest). Regardless, this is a total tangent to the thread.

If outlaw doesn’t get the same cap change treatment as the other classes it’ll be dead in keys. Sure it’ll be fine in sub 20 range, but the pug community will turn on it once word gets around exacerbating the issue, and premades by that time will be making bigger pulls. I mean if you’re stubbornly sticking to outlaw in your key group post 9.1.5 and the tank is doing big pulls, then you’re just gimping your runs.

What I don’t understand is why I need to have a PhD to understand how many targets each spec can hit. Just soft cap at 5 for every AoE spell and make all the damage scale the same (or just remove all capping period). Make sure every class have one good AoE build, ST build, cleave build, and spend time creating content (more dungeons ffs) instead of math problems for the players.

We’re past just complicated and well into ridiculous territory:

  1. Find your class.
  2. Find your spec.
  3. Find the spell(s) / covenant.
  4. Lookup what the target cap means (soft, hard, square root, quantum entanglecapped, etc.).
  5. Give up.
  6. Watch TV instead.

Whoever came up with this is probably the person who invented conduit energy…

6 Likes

I don’t get why Blade Flurry needs to be uncapped. If they just changed to 8 targets it wouldn’t matter. The dungeons are designed for 2-8 target pulls, only a select few allow for enormous pulls, DoS (but only fae area) if they would just increase to 8 targets the spec be alive and well and a great performer. Keeping it at 5 just doesn’t make any sense what so ever.

2 Likes