Hello,
It seems that my account has a bug. I used 25 Keriks and attempted Icecrown Citadel 25 times, but the Invincible mount has not dropped. Additionally, if I take a portal just before defeating the Lich King, the screen sometimes displays the Rotface kill scene instead of the correct one.
I would like to have this issue investigated and fixed.
Thank you.
can you show the math you used to predict he’ll drop in 25 runs?
Assuming it’s a flat 5%, that would be 1 - (0.95^25), or like 73% or so chance to get it after 25 runs.
That has no actual predictive power. Every attempt is independent and at the exact same low likelihood as the first, or the previous dozen, or the previous thousand.
See also “Gambler’s Fallacy”.
Yeah that’s not what I meant. I mean as a dataset, not like the 25th kill is more likely than the 24th kill to get.
You cited it as an answer to a question asking for the calculation you used as a prediction to base your expectations on.
That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy.
No, that’s statistics. The Gamblers fallacy is about trying to discern when you’re “due” for good luck.
I said given 25 runs, your odds at getting a 5% drop are roughly 73%. I never said anything about increasing odds at all. You’re just as likely to get it at the first of those 25 as the last of those 25.
Trust me… the invincible is the one hardest to drop in this game i am so sure…
25 times you said? go try 250 times!!
Gotta run it on like 1000 characters for the probability to be even remotely accurate.
Well if you get up to 90 attempts, then your chances of getting it is 99%! So just gotta keep at it.
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Honestly this reply is better than 99% of ingame tickets today.
gambler’s fallacy detected.
No, pure probability and statisitics. Any one chance is always 5%. The 1st time and 29th time have a 5% drop rate. However the total probability is what makes a single occurance over many attempts possible. Note… many attempts… not one attempt.
Dude just look up how to calculate the probability of somethung happening over “n” attempts.
he’s also calculating the events that already happened into it, is the problem…
the runs without mount have 0% to add to the overall probability of mount…
Robokappa… thats not how it works.
IF you take the full set of tries, you can calculate the combined probability that you would get lucky in any “one” of them. Its a thought experiment.
Having done the attempts in the past does not make it any more likely you get it in any one attempt in the future, however, as a thought experiment we can calculate how unlucky this particular player is.
To give an example. Flipping heads on a coin 10 times in a row has a 1 in 1000 chance. But, if you flipped heads 9 times in a row, flipping it on the 10th time is still 50/50.
I.E. Any one run has a 5% drop probability, that never changes even if you were previously unlucky. However, we can still calculate how unlucky you were to not get a drop n times in a row.
That’s exactly the only thing the cumulative probability calculation can tell you.
But too often, it’s used to support a Gambler’s Fallacy view that “the drop is due”.