Has anyone noticed inspiration procs being vastly different last week to this week ?
I’m a JC with 43.3% (max inspiration tree) and 3 weeks ago, procs were a bit all over the place, last week all crafts were either 1-2 attempts to max a 405/418 ilvl item and now today as of reset it seems it’s taking 4+ crafts on all items to hit max, IDK why these numbers are fluctuating this widely and I’ve done 2600+ crafts so I know there’s definitely something up with the proc chances changing each reset.
Are you crafting the same item? Most specs grant bonuses, but only when crafting ultra-specific items. Leatherworking can get a massive multi-craft bonus but only when craft drums and armor kits, for example.
I’m crafting the same 3 items, Lariat (maxed in necks) Signet of Titanic and Hourglass rings (also maxed in these)
I crafted about 500 orders last week with guaranteed procs or 1 recraft for all of them, nothing change from last week to this week other than me getting more skill points in other trees that I don’t have maxed.
Without knowing anything specifically about Jewelcrafting they might still have unique modifiers.
Leatherworking has unique spec options for normal leather epics, decay gear and beastial gear, for example. Even if I was crafting boots, infurious leather boots, toxic thorn footwraps and lifebound boots each have talents that buff them specifically. Or at least the Infurious and the Toxic items do.
I’m specifically referring to the fact that the identical crafts with same material qualities were all proc’ing rank 5 crafts on the intial or first recraft.
these exact same items, and exact same crafts are now taking up to 5+ times to get the same proc with nothing having changed.
Assuming last week either something was bugged with the proc chances but didn’t see anything in patch notes to state anything has been changed from over the last 3 weeks
I have noticed before adding KP often makes it harder to craft items at the same skill you were. There are all sorts of bugs in that system. Both LW and BS I have had issues with expert profession gear - I will be making it fine at a certain rank and then I add more points and all of a sudden I am struggling for the same rank.
Yeah it’s just very odd, I kept a spreadsheet of all the crafts but last week was like the week to get 418’s crafted because they were almost guaranteed 1st try each craft and now they are taking so much more just to get a single rank 5 proc
Something is different, I’ve noticed it’s taking a LOT more recrafts to hit r5 now, even with 41% insp
I feel like 2 resets ago it was about the same same as it is now, but even now it feels worse
I think you just got lucky last week… the success rate for number of tries looks like this:
| nTries | Success Rate |
|---|---|
| 1 | 43.3% |
| 2 | 67.9% |
| 3 | 81.8% |
| 4 | 89.7% |
| 5 | 94.1% |
| 6 | 96.7% |
| 7 | 98.1% |
| 8 | 98.9% |
| 9 | 99.4% |
| 10 | 99.7% |
There’s only a 1.1% chance of failing after 8 tries, but there’s still a chance to fail that many times in a row.
“lucky” doesn’t follow that chart pattern so something happened with the inspiration procs last week versus this week. Not saying that chart isn’t accurate but last week I literally never crafted a single item more than 1 time to get rank 5 for both 405 infusions and 418 infusions.
I wouldn’t doubt it given there seem to be numerous bugs in the crafting system, like this one about what you see as the difficulty for re-crafting vs what the actual difficulty is when you hit the button (you’d think they should be the same, right?!).
Perhaps there was an inspiration bug that gave the actual chance for a proc a value higher than what is displayed on the crafting screen, which Blizz would consider a bug and might or might not disclose in the patch/hotfix notes after they “fixed” it.
Anyway, the table is right if the single-trial chance of success is 43.3%. It’s based on binomial cumulative probability, where C is the cumulative probability from N trials with a sing-trial success rate of S (and ^ is an exponent operator).
C = 1 - (1-S)^N
No, you did not get lucky last week. So many people are terrible at statistics, and blindly blame rng as if it’s some mythical being. I Have had the exact same issue with blacksmithing this week. I made literally countless blades last week. I’d say maybe 1000 even, and there has been an extremely drastic change immediately starting on Tuesday. It took an average of 2 crafts within the 1000 blades prior, never seeing a recraft take more than 3. This week I’ve done up to 7 several times. I’ve had to refund several people.
I’m having the same issue as a Leatherworker. Dramatic increase since Tuesday, in the number of attempts it takes to proc inspiration, versus the previous two weeks at roughly the same inspiration chance.
That’s what I thought, and I literally have 2788 crafts (according to statistics/professions tab) and I craft the same 3 items for the most part, it was glaringly obvious last week something happened to the inspiration proc chances and just crafting in general versus this week even crafting a 405 which I’ve easily hit everytime in the past isn’t hitting which doesn’t make sense.