Sweet, so now we can get 2 Heroic Vanquisher tokens off every token boss instead of one. Seriously feel like that Vanq drop rate needs to be looked into. I’ve read it’s a slightly higher percentage due to there being 4 classes on it, but I’ve seriously seen triple Vanq drops more than makes rational sense.
People in my guild working on OS 277 sets while we’ve seen 2 H Conq tokens total and some people still need regular ones too lol.
RNG is gonna RNG bro.
Vanq tokens has 40% compared to Conq and Prot’s 30%.
But yeah, rng is rng.
Yeah it’s just so consistently like this for 24 weeks now it doesn’t feel random anymore. Like…it’s not even just me having “bad luck” but the entire guild…and the guild before…hehe.
Had to passive aggressively vent.
There are now 11 heroic tokens being dropped per 12/12H clear. The chances of you getting a token for your class has gone up substantially from the previous 5 heroic tokens per clear.
In a run with only three 277 drops, the odds that all 3 are Vanq is 6.4% (0.4^3). When you expand to runs getting 5 drops, the odds are higher still of getting at least 3 vanq tokens, though I’m too lazy to look up the formula for selecting 3 from 5.
But it would include multiple combos.
The point is we tend to misunderstand what those odds mean in reality. If you start with the question of what is “the odds this will happen to me?” 6.4% sounds low, but in reality it means out of every 1,000 runs netting three 277 tokens, 64 of them will have exactly this happen even if there isn’t an error.
And then those people show up to kvetch on the forums, somewhat understandably, from a personal pov.
Bit of a tangent, but it’s similar to how predictive scams work. You send 10,000 people a prediction that x will happen, and 10,000 people a prediction that y will happen. Regardless of whether x or y happens (you don’t ultimately care which) you then repeat the process with the pool where you guessed correctly.
It’s how you end up down the road with 10 people being really impressed that you predicted multiple outcomes in a row, when really all you did was cover all your bases and winnow the pool accordingly.
So the rationality error is really ours in misattribution of what probabilities represent, which is the likelihood of a certain outcome over a large number of cases rather than a predictor for an individual (my experience) case.
And I will say, I’m also in one of those raids that sees what feels like too many Vanqs, but in a scenario with only 5 drops possible, the law of large numbers plays out across the pool of raids, rather than within a raid.
Conversely, if a raid dropped 100 tokens per week per clear, there would still be some skewing, but most groups would see results much closer to the expected 40/30/30 split.
We had the opposite problem. Clearing 11/12H for months and 12/12 recently, my mage got precisely 1 277 token. RNG gonna RNG.
Vanq drop could be higher actually.
I’m 24 attempts into 10m(H) gunship for the Never-ending Winter shield, and roughly 15 for BQ. editOnly 10 clears for the blood queen shield. Either way 34 runs of not seeing a shield is the RNG at play. I’ve made two thunderfuries in less time than this has taken. Vanq tokens are absolutely overdone. I’ve deleted two occulus drakes in that time frame. It’s all RNGesus refusing to lube up.
BUT it could also be The Baader–Meinhof phenomenon where you only begin to notice things more often because you’re actively noticing it. I get the same feeling when I look around and see a bunch of alts with the shields. They’re chasing the things I have, I’m chasing the things they have.