It feels like to me even though they say Alliance isn’t in Warmode as much as Horde that there are always many more Alliance in a phase than the Horse. Are they purposely putting them together and separating us more to incentivize Alliance to be in WM?
This used to be the case in BfA/SL but ever since the introduction of cross faction, Alliance War Mode participation has gone up and the War Mode balance is relatively even.
This is evident in the Enlisted buff. If a faction is outnumbered, they’ll receive a higher bonus than the standard baseline 10% for having War Mode enabled. In BfA/SL that bonus for Alliance fluctuated between 15-25% and AOO quest. Now, Horde and Alliance both have a 10% bonus which indicates they are relatively even in numbers.
It’s definitely a sharding issue though when it comes to feeling outnumbered. For me, I have the opposite. On Bleeding Hollow, there’s times where I need to hop into LFG to find Alliance because my shards are majority Horde. It’s never 50/50. Rarely do I get majority Alliance. If only they could balance these shards more, it’d be great.
Keep in mind that the War Mode bonus doesn’t take into account the split between RP servers and non-RP servers.
RP server War Mode is dominated by alliance (because the MG-A population is so ridiculously large).
Non RP server War Mode is dominated by horde.
So if you want a target rich environment, get invited to a roleplay server’s version of war mode. 
EDIT: to put it in perspective: According to Raider.io, there are 712k L70 characters on RP servers, with 280k being Horde, and 432k being Alliance. Assuming that a proportional amount of players on both factions play in War Mode, that’s ~1.54 A : 1 H – though realistically, it’s probably even more lopsided in Alliance’s favor – I’m regularly ending up 1v5 when trying to take the supply drops myself, even after calling out the location of the drop in general chat. x_x
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Correct, it only counts the region. This also holds true for OCE realms. OCE realms for instance have always been Alliance dominant and the Alliance there always have had the extra WM bonuses even when Alliance was considered outnumbered.
It doesn’t accurately represent the situation for OCE or RP realms really.
I’m on Area-52 where I would think it SHOULD be either balanced or lean Horde but it never seems to be the case. Granted I used to be Stormrage Alliance and felt outnumbered all the time but that was BFA so you’re likely right. It’s changed and sharding hasn’t been reworked accordingly.
Friend of mine was Alliance on Sargeras and recently faction changed back to Horde but is still on Sargeras. All he encounters is Alliance because of that. Sharding is awful really lol
idk but i’m fine with it. more to gank, more to run from, keeps the game interesting.