Fun fact, the OSRS wiki has a calculator for exactly this kind of question.
https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc
Put in the drop chance and number of kills and it tells you the exact chance of you getting it.
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Yeah phrasing and word choices are everything in statistics and probability. It is why you need to be careful not to use language that can imply that something will happen. Particularly when you are looking at random independent events.
I don’t know how many months I spent getting the white hawkstrider it may have been a year since I did it in bursts.
Next is Argent tournament that gray tone is perfect for frost and arcane.
White hawkstrider is the grindiest mount I own, though I did get the taxi mammoth on the first vault of archevon then never saw it again and never did get what I actually wanted.
RNG amirite?
Except it is. You can determine the “probability” you would see it at x runs regardless of whether the outcome is affected by the previous roll or not. It is certainly possible to never see it, but the probability that you will dose increase over time even with independent rolls. The probability will never reach 100%, but it gets very close over larger sample size.
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Me and my accountant have no idea
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The idea that there is a threshold where it is safe to assume you will have a particular outcome (the statement I was replying to) is called a gamblers fallacy…and not how statistic works.
Yes, the probability of an event occurring increases…but there is no magical threshold a where a particular event becomes more likely than any previous iterations
I have had many people cite me statistics and probabilities. They are usually an optimistic bunch.
You have a 1 in 6 chance heart disease being your cause of death.
Not much for optimism there haha.
The gambler’s fallacy is believing that a series of unsuccessful trials will alter the probability of a subsequent individual trial. “Theres is a 50/50 chance of x, and x has not happened 5 times in a row so its due to happen this time!”
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For real.
People just seem to love to come into these threads and spout bogus crap about how it’s possible to never get something even though that’s not the question being asked.
If something has a known drop rate you can calculate the average number of kills it should take to get it and thus can confirm if you were unlucky or not in when you got it.
That is what the OP is asking and it baffles me that some people lack the ability to understand that very simple concept.
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Exactly. So the OP is looking for a number threshold for when they will get the mount, which is essentially the same concept.
i.e. I believe the 99% probability threshold was 13…so the OP will assume that they will get the mount within that number of tries. They are asking for the number in which they would be due for a win.
Oh no I figured, I was just being general. Realistically, I suck at math.
Its not the same concept. This is a common misconception covered in most texts. The probability of an individual trial stays static, the probability of a series of trials is what changes.
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And to that I ask so what? Who the hell cares?
For me if I was farming something like that knowing 13 runs should theoretically get me the item is just interesting to know so when I do 26 runs I can say this damn thing took me 26 runs.
And then when I go do a 1% drop run and get it first try I get to laugh.
Assuming the PRNG is geometric.
Also, most people making inane comments about gambling don’t recognize that this is literally how Vegas makes money – the gambling odds are based on an indicator value of successive trials which are less than the input costs.
Again, run the code for a population. I guarantee the code halts. It’s not infinitely bounded, though naive probability tricks you into believing that to be so.
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It’s how companies get you to spend money for things you don’t need. lol
The more I read this thread, the more I realize people don’t recognize a difference between “each” and “all”…
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That’s not how it works, OP.
Whether you kill it 100x or 1000x, you will always have an 8% chance.
I doubt the OP is still reading this thread, but the drop rate % for the Fallen Charger is now 5% according to WoWhead…The sample size is only 882, so it could still change.
You need sample sizes in the thousands to get accurate rates.