You can test it in game OP,
/roll and see how many time it takes you to get 92+
Then do it again
And again
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With the adjective nearly it no longer means guaranteed so if your talking about 99.999999999928% the language would be correct.
Furthermore the adjective takes the term guaranteed from being an objective claim to one that becomes subjective as everyone has a different percentage of what nearly guaranteed means.
This is why math is better then other languages. There are no misunderstandings over word usage.
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That is semantics, your example would imply that I’m extremely unlucky if I don’t get the drop in the example provided. Which is not the case, as those attempts are independent of each other events, that don’t affect any probability in any way.
Then you don’t understand what probability is.
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Theoretically an 8% drop rate means that it should drop once every 13 encounters.
That is not a guarantee, though, merely a probability.
As each loot roll is independent of every other loot roll you could, theoretically, never see it until the heat-death of the Universe.
or…
You could see it the first time you run the encounter.
Both are possible.
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Also, if we are talking about a reported 8%, as in Wowhead says 8% of attempts resulted in a win condition, that is historical data, which, in no way, has any effect on future attempts. As more data is collected, that number could change, based on how many win conditions are met out of the number of attempts. If it’s 8% now, and future reports are 1% or less, we could see that number drop until it is at or near 1% itself.
Also, as shown by the Wowhead data, each person is not in this by themselves, so there will be people who get it immediately, some after a few tries, all the way up to never. The chance and probability belong to all of the attempts. Not just the one person.
“The past does not predict the future” - Ghost - Enter the Matrix
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then follow your own logic, find a dude in wowhead comments farming soundless with 628 attempts, champion his cause, and make the 629-th kill. Then conclude that you are in fact extremely unlucky in that you’ve done 629 kills with no drop, right?
Or the probability cares for who explicitly made the roll? So him doing his next kill, and you doing it in his stead are two totally different probabilities, right?
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There is always a 8% chance of getting the item in a single event, whether it is the first or the 5,001st.
What you are either ignoring or not grasping is that the probability of NOT getting the item decreases from 92% as the number of attempts increases. This is no longer a measure of the chance of getting the item but rather a measure of the chance of not getting the item.
As multiple posts have noted, this easiest seen in a coin flip. The individual chance of landing on heads will always be 50%. The chance of landing on tails 100, 200, 500, 1,000, 10,000 in a row becomes infinitesimally small. However, if you had an infinite number of coin flipping machines, some would have runs of 1,000 or 10,000 in a row.
With a loot drop displayed as 92 white balls and 8 red balls, the chance of getting a white ball 100, 200, 500, 1000, 10000 times in a row becomes infinitesimally small slower than the coin flip because the adverse outcome (getting the item) is 8% rather than 50% chance of getting a single head coin filp. However, it still ends up in that infinitesimally small chance reasonably quickly.
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Probability is the measurement of the likelihood in RNG that something has or hasn’t happened after so many attempts.
You can’t think of probability in a single term basis. It’s a mathematical formula to calculate based on the number of attempts.
Well, technically if there’s a finite number of items to open (like if there’s only like a million of that item), technically your odds do increase each time you open an item due to removal.
HOWEVER, that doesn’t apply here as there is not a finite number of that boss to kill.
Yes, so? Once again, are you more likely to get the drop if you chaimpion the cause of the dude that made 1000 attempts, or if your doing “your personal” attempt? There is no difference. You have no idea how many attempts has been made, you have no idea of the amount of successful outcomes. All you got is your 8%. That is all.
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It’s the probability that YOU have gotten a successful attempt based on how many tries YOU have put in.
Someone else doing something does not increase your own probability.
Now if you’re talking overall probability, like if something has an 8% chance of happening and a 100 people try, there’s over a 99% probability that at least one of those 100 people will have a successful outcome.
Context matters.
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So if that dude with 1000 attempts asked me to login with character and do the kill, the likelihood of drop has changed ?
The probability that the character would have had the item by then would have gone up.
If that is your first attempt ever, then your probability of gaining it on that kill is 8%.
And he’d be banned for account sharing.
considering how many people can’t tell the difference between ‘probability’ and ‘statistics’ i don’t find that at all surprising
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I mean the probability with 8% out of 100 dosent work … since its 8% every time it drops , you can run it 500 times and still not get it since it 8% every time you know what i mean
That is a good point. Since the op didn’t tell us what the item is, there is no way to estimate how accurate the drop rate is.
Also, if the item requires a group it adds additional layers to the probability calculation
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the other big problem here is that nobody has defined what they mean when they say somebody is reasonably guaranteed to get the item. is that 99%? 99.99%? 99.9999%?
It never becomes 100% statistically as well. You can get it to 99.9999 but never 100 .
You remember 100% mission fails in WoD Garrisons ? so possibly never, is also an option
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i agree with you. i’m puzzled at the responses from people saying something else.