What is the likelihood that Blizzard is going to set up a transfer system for servers that are dead?
Using Ironforge.pro/Population to look at the servers that are under 1000 people, there’s currently 8 that raid log/PVP, with a total of 1098 - which is still less people than 9th least-populated server (Blaumeux at 1228 people).
Just looking at it from a purely monetary stand point, that’s about $16.5k per month, assuming every person considered in the population is unique accounts. I heard from a YouTuber that crunched numbers, looking at populations over players across entire expansions over WoWs history, that the average person has 1.5 alts, and ultimately that 70% of population numbers is unique. So looking at that, the monthly cost of 1098 population would come out to be about $11.5k (at 70%).
The cost of transfers for everyone from these servers, at $25.00, comes out to be about $27.5k. If we assume that only mains are going to be transferred, using 70% of the population, this comes out to be $19.2k. Assuming that everyone transfers, that’s not even 2 months worth of subscriptions - while ONTOP of subs, that would be about 2.6 months of revenue in 1 month. Obviously, that’s a nice chunk of change, but what is the likelihood that 100% of people transfer? I doubt it’s 100% (because I won’t do it, I’m going to end up canceling my two accounts, and know a few other people who will too).
If only 80% of the population transfers, that comes out to be under $15.5k, which in the grand scheme of a subscription based game is barely over the monthly income of that many people. This would also drop the subscription cost down (if those people STOP playing the game) to about $9.2k.
So a free transfer for these servers would net Blizzard $11.5 per month. Conversely, a transfer cost would get them 11.5+15.5 for the first month, then 9.2 for the second month, for a total of 36.2k for two months. In the end a free transfer for all these people would net them $138k, if everyone keeps playing for another year, where as the normal transfer system would net them a loss at $128.2k.
As I mentioned, before $4,000 is not a ton of money for a sub based system, so $10 in a year is also not a ton of money. Although, the likelihood that 80% of people will transfer then the population WON’T subsequently drop, and then maintain those numbers is probably not what’s going to happen.
What I’m getting at is that an influx in cash now is going to lead to at least a loss in $10k for under 2000 people. Personally, that seems like what I would call a “not good idea to make money with.”
If I missed anything please let me know!