Why is it that I can get three Pureblood Fire Hawks from Heroic Ragnaros before one Alysrazor. I’ve also seen two Swift Zulian Panthers, but I’ve never seen one Armored Razzashi Raptor or Invincible?
This “Oh it’s all luck based lol” is beyond stupid and insulting. It’s time to make the mount loot better. I shouldn’t be SOL & JWF just because “Lol it’s 1%” on 8 characters. Look at FFXIV: Realm Reborn. Someone mentioned to me in a whisper that they have a system in place where you got credit to get a mount if it doesn’t drop. After enough time killing, usually, weeks if not months, you can trade said credit in for the a mount you want.
Take note, this is needed. This 1% is is a joke as it’s not accurate at all. It took me 16 hours of non-stop grinding to get Rivendare’s Deathcharger. At 8 runs per hour, that means 128 runs to get. That was the day I got it. Not included the 48 other hours it took to get it, which is an additional 384 attempts if my memory serves correctly. I don’t know how many Attunman the Huntsman it took on four toons (before I made more) but I know it took months. I have no clue how many kills of Rukhmar, Oondasta, and Nalak I made on 8 characters but I know it greatly helped to roll twice with tokens on 8 characters to get them. I’m still hunting Sha & Galleon’s mounts.
Give us something! How about a mount token we can exchange for it? After 100 kills on one character, we can trade those tokens to an NPC available AFTER the final boss of a raid/mythic is killed and get the mount straight out.
If not, since you guys decided 'Hey let’s make a shortcut to Jaina’s mount lol". How about we get shortcuts to the following mount bosses in old content to make the overall quality-of-life improvements?
Yogg-Saron (kill him 4 times and get a portal to Yogg-Saron’s Chamber)
Lich King (Kill him 4 times and get a portal at Light’s Hammer)
Ragnaros (Kill him 4 times and get a portal to just after Majordomo)
Ultraxion (Kill him or Deathwing 4 times and get a fast-tracking portal to the top of Wrymrest Temple)
Elegon (Kill him or Will of the Emperor 4 times and get a portal to the room between them)
Garrosh Hellscream (Kill him 4 times and get a portal straight to Garrosh)
Oh, and how about allowing us to farm the Warfronts for those mounts on MORE THAN ONE CHARACTER? That’s a huge middle finger that we can’t have more than one attempt a week at these mounts.
1% is the true value and thus 100 runs is the expected number of runs. Expected value also means average (mean) btw. If you don’t get it before or even on that, you are unlucky. This is how random chance works. You could get a 1% mount drop on your first go. Does not mean it is 100% chance.
The % does not increase with each failed attempt. This ain’t a cumulative mass function (CMF) / Cumulative distribution function (CDF). Bad luck protection does not apply to mount drops.
Also 128 runs is a small sample size for trying to simulate the true mean (aka 100 runs as it is a 1% drop chance). WoWhead has a total sample size of 182833 runs and it dropped 1558. Which is around 0.9%. Which is close enough in stats land to say it is equal to the true (population) %. And 182833 is a lot of samples. This is for Rivendare’s Deathcharger btw. Having more samples on top of the 182833 wouldn’t make that much of a difference due to the law of big numbers and the central limit theorem. Although if you get infinite amount of samples, the sample mean will approach the population mean.
You can’t bonus roll Rukmar’s mount iirc. Only the MoP world bosses.
Sounds like someone doesn’t understand statistics. A 1% drop chance doesnt mean you’re going to get it in 100 runs as each run isn’t affected by the previous run. It took me 8 years to get Experiment 12-B to drop from Ultraxion but I got the mount from the world elite devourer in Revendreth on my first kill. RNG is RNG my dude.
Yeah people need to learn that the expected value simply means the… .mean (average) of independent random variables. It does not mean, “you will get it by this point and if you don’t, it’s a bug”.
So if the population (true) drop chance is 1%, then the expected number of runs (average) to get it to drop is 100. If you get it beforehand, you are lucky. If you get it afterwards, you are unlucky.
Have you killed Ultraxion at least once for EVERY week on at least normal or heroic (LFR does not drop the mount, thus we can ignore it) since Dragon Soul came out?
Have you killed Ultraxion on multiple characters at any point during those weeks?
have you taken any breaks from the game, or weeks where you did not do Ultraxion on normal or heroic?
According to wowhead, Experiment 2-B has dropped 1708 times out of a sample size of 189077. Which comes out to be a sample mean of around 0.9%. I got this by adding up the successful drops and dividing them by the sum of sample sizes from https://www.wowhead.com/item=78919/experiment-12-b#contained-in-object. Which is an example of ‘mean of means’. Aka, taking the mean of a sample of means. This is useful as it generates a large sample size. The larger the sample size, the more accurate (i.e. the less bias there is) the sample becomes. I mean once n approaches infinity or the population size, whichever one happens first, you basically have the population as a sample. Thus you have the population mean. I should note that it is highly improbable for a sample mean to be exactly equal to the population mean. Hence the “as n approaches infinity” limit.
I believe Experiment 2-B has a true (population) drop rate of 1%.
Are you really going to argue that WoWheads sample, which has a statistically large sample size, is false because it does not match up with your personal experience?
Almost like things called outliers can happen. Again, a drop rate of 1% is just the AVERAGE (mean). It does not mean that you will get it within 100 runs.
I got Experiment 12-B back in 2018. I always went through 25H. I got the Heroic Only mount from Deathwing back during MoP, I believe it was my 4th or 5th FC when I got it with my group of usual runners. I got the final drake that drops off Normal or Heroic Deathwing back in 2020. Feel free to do a ballpark estimate as I farmed it on my Shaman, Druid, Death Knight, Paladin, Warrior, and Demon Hunter.
Do I take breaks? Yes, every person has their sane limits. Since I returned about 2 or 3 months before Dragonflight, I’ve been running 2-8 Zul Gurub a day, sometimes I’ll FC, sometimes I just do Bloodlord Mandokir and I’ve yet to see that mount, but I’ve seen two more Swift Zulian Panthers.
What does 1% have to do with asking for shortcuts to make quality-of-life improvements? They’ve put several in already including the one in Battle of Dazar’alor so Alliance could do the shortcut that was unavailable to them previously.
that would invalidate any sense of what mount farming is all about, which is the suspense leading up to the inevitable nothing for loot. RNG is fine, why would anyone farm old raids if they knew “I’ll have it after X amount of runs”? It just is what it is, some like Antoran Charhound drop on the 4th try, while Invincible took me 625 tries across 2 accounts. This is what mount farmers do, and we enjoy it, no way do we wanna give it up so we change everything. I’m fully on board with having skips though. Granted Ulduar can still be done with a lockout, but ICC, SOO, any of the really long raids, it’s beyond time for a skip, even if they charge gold for it to be used, something. If they want better raid participation, stop making me waste 45 mins for one SOO run lol, cause the mount runs are top priority. Fun note for Garrosh, if you save even one of the purple blobs in the room before him, n target yourself and drag it to Garrosh, he will depsawn and respawn in like 10 seconds and skip the whole RP part. Instead of watchin Thrall get knocked out the park like Babe Ruth, he just stands there chillin while we fight Garrosh.