Fix Bindings and Eye of Sulfuras drops

WoW Classic WoW Classic Bug Report
1

Hello, I created a in-game ticket to the GM’s to help with MC broken drops.

“My ticket started like this”

I am the co-guild leader of my guild, and we have been full clearing MC for 36 weeks and BWL for 17 weeks. We are still waiting for either the Binding’s or Eye of Sulfuras to drop, our group of 50 people have been waiting for these items to drop. Please help me figure out how get these major achievements for my guild/friends. This not dropping for almost a year is so demotivating.

“In-GM reply”

Game Master Hyalosura here! Hope you’re doing well today.

I’m sorry to hear about your unlucky adventures within the World… of Warcraft. I too have been after the bindings for quite some time myself, and have yet to be rewarded. I definitely understand your concern about your Character.

The good news is that it is not really possible to have your loot chances bugged on your Characters. The chance of loot as well as what loot is dropped is a coded algorithm within the game, which works similar to rolling a pair of dice. Every time you kill something, the Game runs a script to determine if loot is dropped, and if you are lucky enough to get loot to drop, it will also determine what loot is dropped. If this was bugged, then it would be effecting every player within the game.

That being said, I totally hear you loud and clear with your concern, but something like that simply isn’t possible. Like I mentioned, I’ve been doing the same item farming for years with each expansion, just like you have been. In fact, thousands of players have!

Keep your feet on the ground my friend. Keep pushing and keep trying for your bindings with me and all the other players, and one day our luck will catch up with us

Thanks for taking the time to contact us today. I hope this clears everything up for you. Take Care. And have a wonderful day.

“My Reply”

Thank you for such a respectful and nice reply. We are not solo farming in expansions, we are clearing current content (MC) with 40 people. I understand you might feel you cant do anything to help, but you can. Please upchannel this concern up your chain to increase the drop rate or set a requirement to get these items. 50 people in my guild have never seen 1 legendary drop in almost a year. 50 people… while other guilds have 5 or 6 legendaries. I have even heard of 1 guild with 7 Thunderfury’s… 7!!! Also, even some players have 2 legendaries… both Thurderfury and Hand of Rag. Feels bad man. I literally have 3 people in my guild that have all the mats to craft these very expensive items. I feel like there is some sort of hidden algorithm in the game that triggers the drop. Like time of day, number of deaths, number of attempts, time to complete… something. I feel like we are more likely to hit the Powerball than to have not seen 1 legendary drop for this long.

“His Reply”

Thanks for reaching back out on this. I know you feel strongly with your stance on it and I don’t blame you. It does not feel good to not get drops after spending so much time farming. So you are doing the only thing you can think of that may produce the best result.

Support is not in liaison with the developers, our management has no way to directly contact them or upchannel a suggestion or concern. That is all done by the players by posting on the forums or submitting a suggestion through the support portal in-game. There is no easy button or flip to switch to make things drop easier or more often and GMs are not an alternative solution to getting that done or providing that to players.

If you would like to see what we can typicalyl help with, I encourage you to read this here. About the Azjol-Nerub and Khaz Modan category

Thanks again for hitting us up on this today though Danny so we could look into this for you. Outside of this, I hope you have a good one and take care.

“My Reply”

I dont understand how when i open a ticket with the area “Problem with achievement” that this doesn’t apply to you? We all know ledgendaries are more achievements than useful.

“in-Game Reply”

That’s a fair question. Support has a small window of opportunity to help with achievements. If it’s a confirmed bug that the developers have looked into that require GMs help, then we have a higher chance of being able to help.

But most achievement issues do not end up like that. :confused: In most situations, it would require you to try again or to bug report it. We do not guarantee or promise that an issue can be resolved or fixed on the spot through support. Sometimes, the support we can provide is to route you to bug reporting or submitting a suggestion.

Thanks again for hitting us up on this today though so I could look into this for you. Outside of this, I hope you have a good one and take care.

2

RNG isn’t a bug just because the RNG isn’t in your favor. My guild’s 1st raid has 38 clears of MC and one binding. Our 2nd raid has 35 clears of MC and one binding.

RNG is RNG.

1 Like
3

Post on your main pls am curious

RNG is RNG bruv

4

Do you understand how percentages work bro?

6

a year? that’s rough

7

Yes I do… Bro!? Do you? Is your comment only meant to inflame me or are you asking for help on how percentages work? Let me help you… bro

First lets make sure you understand what a “Percentage” is and what a “Probability” is. Because I am deducing that you do not. When in fact you mean “Do you understand how probabilities work bro?”

A “Percentage” is a number or ratio expressed as a fraction of a 100. It is often denoted using a percent sign “%”.

A “Probability” is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur.

Now I will try to articulate the actual problem I am trying to explain to your feeble-minded thought process.

Now the AtlasLoot addon has the Eye-of-Sulfurase dropping at 8% and WoWHead has it dropping at a whopping 11% rate. Now for the sake of this situation, we will use the lower drop rate of 8% for this word picture for you. 8% is 8 out of a 100 attempts.

So the probability of the item not dropping is 92 times out of 100 attempts.

Now if you want to know the probability of the same thing happening (or not happening) in consecutive events, the math formula goes as such:

X/Y * X/Y * X/Y = 3X/3Y

So for the item to not drop in 3 MC runs in a row. The math works out like this:

92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100= 778,688/1,000,000 or 77.8/100

This is saying the item will not drop in 3 MC runs 77.8% of the time.

Now let’s do the math on the probability of 10 consecutive runs without a drop.

92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 * 92/100 = 43,438,845,422,363,213,824/100,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 43.4/100

This is saying the item will not drop 43.4% of the time out of 10 consecutive runs.

Now lets do the math for the probability of this item not dropping for 36 consecutive runs.

(92^36)/(100^100) = 49,700,617,480,299,483,035,768,844,272,971,614,082,746,615,940,325,201,053,366,097,916,461,056/1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 4.9% out of 100

Now do you think only 4.9% of the guilds running MC for 36 weeks have not gotten an Eye-of-Sulfurase?

Maybe, maybe not. But now lets add in the additional probability of a Eye-of-Sulfurase or even 1 of the Bindings (3 items) not dropping.

WoWhead has each binding dropping at a 6% drop rate and AtlasLoot addon has them dropping at a 3% drop rate each.

Now using the same method above at the 3% drop rate to get the percentage of just 1 Binding not dropping is:

(97^36)/(100^100) = 334,027,661,875,095,082,935,878,165,689,897,695,724,025,886,105,865,253,311,336,914,562,753,921/1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 3.3% out of a 100

Now that we know that each Binding has 3.3% chance of not dropping for 36 weeks and the Eye has a 4.9% chance, we need to add in the probability of each of those happening at the same time (this called Conditional Probability).

Math goes like this… P=Probability, A=Event 1 or Eye-of-Sulfurase not dropping, B= Event 2 or Left Binding not dropping, C=Event 3 or Right Binding not dropping

P(AnB|C) = P(AnBnC)/P© = P(.049n.033n.033) = P((4.9/100)n(3.3/100)n(3.3/100)) = 53.361/1,000,000 = 0.0053361% chance of none of those 3 items dropping in 36 runs.

Now do you see the problem?

Either the RNG is broken or there is another undisclosed variables like, Speed, # of Deaths, Time of Day, Number of Rag Kills on the day, Number of attempts, maybe number on the server already dropped… something.

I would also like to mention that we have never had a Bonereaver’s Edge drop either.

2 Likes
8

ok lv .14 we’ll get right on that

9

Congratulations you know how to do math, you obviously don’t understand how statistics work because you wouldn’t make such an absurd statement.

You can flip a coin 100 times and get tails 100 times. That’s how RNG works, just split clear.

10

Or, get this; the RNG is not broken and you’re unlucky. There’s thousands and thousands of guilds that have cleared MC for 30+ weeks. The odds that some of those guilds would be unlucky is high.

11

bruh… the drop rate for eye is 3% (percent!<3) according to classic db.

But i loved that little bs math rant. You must really be mad it has not dropped yet :frowning:

1 Like
12

In 36 attempts you havent seen a 3% drop yet… only 36 attempts… I know people who have done Angerforge more and not seen a HoJ, with a 4% drop. Its not a bug, its how it goes. You could theoretically never see a legendary drop in Classic. It sucks but taht how it goes…

13

I will give you an easy example 2 big items from BRD like HOJ and SGC. HOJ has 4% drop rate and SGC 7%. It took me around 90 runs to get HOJ and about 130+ to get SGC.

Now, apply same RNG to MC and you still got 2/3 way to go. Good luck!

14

We’ve been clearing BWL since week one, no claws and no loks. Much MUCH higher drop chance than bindings or eye.

Does that mean our RNG is broken? No. It means we have garbage luck.

15

not a bug.