That’s because you’re not intended to get one guaranteed? It’s a rare item it’s not supposed to be a free handout.
actually, i think you’re double-dipping by assuming three rolls to one after already running the percentages. I always sucked at statistics until I took a discrete math course and they introduced me to probability trees— (and then i ‘cheated’ in my statistics class and ignored all the formulas if a probability tree would suffice :p)
Here’s what it looks like when we put your numbers into a tree:
. 1/1
. LFR 1% / \
. 1/100 99/100
. Normal 5% / \ / \
. 5/100 95/100 5/100 95/100
. Heroic 10% / \ / \ / \ / \
. 10/100 90/100 10/100 90/100 10/100 90/100 10/100 90/100
. | | | | | | | |
. total: 50/1m 450/1m 950/1m 8850/1m 4950/1m 44550/1m 94050/1m 846450/1m
So, if we add up all the branches where a legendary drop occurs, we get:
(50 + 450 + 950 + 8850 + 4950 +44550 + 94050) / 1,000,000 = 0.15385, or 15.385%, whereas if they add up 1+5+10 they’d get 16%, meaning the one straight roll on heroic would be better (assuming they really do go with the additive method of consolidating roll chance).
I did this with someone else’s numbers too, and it looks like the additive is always better than taking three rolls… which annoys the heck out of me, because I was also killing Sark in order of difficulty over the past several weeks, which means I was reducing my odds (albiet by a pretty small amount) and wasting time with multiple sark kills 
Bottom line, I really hope this legendary has bad luck protection, and I hope they’ve gone with the “multiple rolls” method of each difficulty having its own roll, but it rollng for the current difficulty and everything below it, when Sark is defeated.
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It’s pretty clear from this thread that Blizzard should issue another response and be more clear on how this works. And perhaps think of a new system for how to obtain things like this in the future.
Well, this doesn’t really affect me, since I can’t be bothered to put up with potential you-know-whats in premades. I’ll just do LFR kills until I eventually get it on my evoker.
I’m not convinced that the LFD community has improved enough yet. 
I used that mess for the Legion weapon appearances in the past, and didn’t much care for it then. Too many people are too nasty in what is just a video game… So you will not get my best effort to try to do higher difficulties. LFR is the most I can put up with.
in my experience, normal pugs have been a breeze. It does tend to get toxic in Heroic, though. Seen several leaders that think that they understand the fight because they have one kill under their belt and an AotC achievement to prove it, but then fail to understand how certain mechanics work, or are unwilling to accept suggestions to make things easier.
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So basically you lied based on the information provided once it was released?
Also why omit this information until well over a month after it released?
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This kind of sounds like: “Why make the system simple and intuitive like the rest of the loot system when we could make it way more complicated?” I’m really curious to hear what crazy 3 AM thoughts went into this design…
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Idk, the way it’s been posited to work is how they’ve done some things in the past. EG the eternal palace essence. We just need an unambiguous explanation so we can be sure that were correct in how it works.
A side note: I thought blizzard learned their lesson about making super rare loot that is also super powerful. I guess not? Coming from a hunter who raided all of 10.0 and never got Neltharax, I’m betting that we see a lot of very unhappy evokers in about three weeks time…
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At the moment, yeah, I think the issue is everything available is speculation based on what was provided by Blizzard. They’ve been traditionally hesitant to explain the inner workings of things like this because “reasons”. I can reasonably infer some of those reasons to be related to prevention of exploitation of the logic. But, I am not sure if and how that applies here as it is a simple question that shouldn’t be exploitable.
I suppose. Maybe I’m still too burned out from SL. I quit before the Zereth Mortis patch because I realized I couldn’t even get motivated to log in for anything. That’s when you know you just need a break.
I came back about a month or two (I forget how long) after DF launched. My burnout was cured for the most part, but I’m still feeling wary of fellow players. Truthfully, I know that such bad experiences are actually in the minority, but those are the ones that sting the most and stand out the most. I think maybe that’s what makes them harder to get over (for me). I’ll eventually consider pugging again. Just not sure that I’m ready right now.
A lot of dilettante statisticians here. The chances of winning any individual lower percentages sequentially is lower than a single cumulative chance.
I would highly encourage that during the 10.2 develop the dev team tell anyone who comes up with any items approaching the Rasz bow and this legendary’s power and obtuseness to acquire to take a break and rethink their life.
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The lfr chance is so low you may never see it. You’ll be needing to do transmog runs for it after DF.
Alternatively, people that feel that BiS is a life or death issue need to rethink some priorities.
Getting this legendary has a worse drop rate then getting a 5 star character in Genshin Impact and that is something.
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how come you blizzard dudes always word things like that so people are even more confused? just use literal words and tell people what the go is.
If you do heroic, its 0.01% chance. If you go back to normal or LFR after that, its 0% chance.
However, if you do normal than heroic, it’ll still have a 0.01% chance for both.
If you do LFR than normal than heroic, each time will have 0.01% chance.
Why do you even have hidden mechanics like this now?
it was actually stated by blizzard. Some of the only information we have about the drop. It was in the week that the mythic kill went out. Im not going to go find it because thats a waste of MY time, but if you want to go find it and correct me go right ahead… you wont find it tho.
thats not how it works… if you kill it on normal then kill it on heroic, the heroic doesnt have access to the roll on normal or LFR. Limiting your rolls to 1 instead of 3… there is a blue post up that will confirm this.
so yes, BiS is a problem… BUT… Augmentation is out in about 3 weeks. This means that the buff spec needs to be providing buffs. Spore enchant was created for Augmentation… Legendary was created for Augmentation… Both providing massive buffs to the group.
Ebon might scales off your main stat (int)… the legendary provides the dragon with the int buff first, then any excess gets provided to the nearest raid member with their cooldown up or ready. It literally is made for Augmentation so they are stronger at buffing. 500 main stat is no joke and when you attach it to ebon might it will scale to about +100 main stat to players effected by it. its really punishing to not have that when people do. Why take an augmentation with out it when you could take an augmentation with it.
Devo and Presto kinda dont as much, the ilvl alone for main stat is great and the +500 stat is fantastic but it out performs as it is atm.
needs to just be a drop on the ground. It is expensive enough that it is a commitment to make and an effort to obtain the materials.
It should go like this. This week Mythic sark drops a gem on the ground… every evoker can loot it.
Next week Heroic drops the gem, every evoker can loot it.
Week after (patch week) normal drops the gem on the ground, every evoker can loot it.
Week after Patch dropped with Augmentation in full swing, gem drops in LFR… all dragons get it.
10.2 New quest spawns in valdrakken that gives you the quest… bam, legendary for small amount of time. Nobody will wait this long but it covers future legendary tmog 20expansions into the future.
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