While awaiting the Phase 3 launch, I compiled a Google sheet (1dL5rtW6TO61rnCULfJDWl5YTjx0BtPNs2VbrObdLjVM) to project when and how many Dragonwrath, Tarecgosa’s Rest (DTR) staves each raid group is likely to secure, depending on possible Phase 4 release dates.
In the best-case scenario, where 25-man raids complete a staff every 4.5 weeks and 10-man raids every 9 weeks, the first Dragonwrath staff for a 25-man group would be completed by the week of December 4, 2024. For 10-man groups, this completion date extends into the first week of 2025. In the worst-case scenario, with 25-man and 10-man raids taking 9 and 12 weeks per staff respectively, we can expect 25-man groups to finish their first staff by December 18, 2024, while 10-man groups would achieve this milestone by January 29, 2025.
Originally, the Dragon Soul release was anticipated on February 5, 2025, in which case a 25-man raid group would likely acquire 4 to 6 DTR staves, with 10-man groups securing 1 or 2. However, with the recent announcement of a Phase 3 extension, I estimate Dragon Soul is more likely to open around March 5, 2025, or possibly April 2, 2025. If teams maintain interest and attendance through March, 25-man groups are projected to complete between 6 and 9 staves, while 10-man groups could finish 2 or 3. A further delay into April could allow 25-man groups to complete 8 to 12 staves and 10-man groups to complete 3 to 5.
While comparing final quantities is important, the timing of each staff’s acquisition is equally relevant. A staff completed by the 6th week provides a team with seven more weeks of benefit compared to one completed by the 13th week. To account for this, I calculated an “average staves” metric, which represents the average weekly number of staves available to each raid team over the entirety of Phase 3, assuming Phase 3 ends on the corresponding date in each row. This metric was derived by totalling the number of weeks each staff would be in use, then dividing by the total weeks since Firelands opened.
For instance, if Dragon Soul were to launch as originally planned on February 5, 2025, 25-man groups in the best-case scenario would average 2.08 staves per week throughout Phase 3, while 10-man groups in the worst case would average just 0.08 (1 / 13 = 0.08) staves per week, as they would only complete their first staff in 12 weeks.
Finally, I included ratios between the 25-man and 10-man metrics for a straightforward comparison. I’m simply presenting the data here. Whether Blizzard’s decisions align with your views or not, I leave that for you to decide.
Happy progression and farming—good luck with your legendary staves!
Summary Table:
| Number of DTR | Average Number of DTR over P3 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week No. | Date | 25m Best Case | 25m Worst Case | 10m Best Case | 10m Worst Case | Best Case Ratio | Worst Case Ratio | 25m Best Case | 25m Worst Case | 10m Best Case | 10m Worst Case | Best Case Ratio | Worst Case Ratio |
| 1 | 8-Nov-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 2 | 13-Nov-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 3 | 20-Nov-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 4 | 27-Nov-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 5 | 4-Dec-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 6 | 11-Dec-24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 7 | 18-Dec-24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 8 | 25-Dec-24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 9 | 1-Jan-25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 10 | 8-Jan-25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 12.00 | ||
| 11 | 15-Jan-25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 0.82 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 8.00 | ||
| 12 | 22-Jan-25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 7.00 | ||
| 13 | 29-Jan-25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.08 | 1.23 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 5.40 | 16.00 |
| 14 | 5-Feb-25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.36 | 1.43 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 4.71 | 10.00 |
| 15 | 12-Feb-25 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.67 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 4.44 | 8.33 |
| 16 | 19-Feb-25 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2.67 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| 17 | 26-Feb-25 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2.67 | 3.00 | 3.29 | 2.12 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 3.73 | 6.00 |
| 18 | 5-Mar-25 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.61 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 3.61 | 5.25 |
| 19 | 12-Mar-25 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.95 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 0.53 | 3.41 | 4.90 |
| 20 | 19-Mar-25 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.25 | 2.80 | 1.30 | 0.60 | 3.27 | 4.67 |
| 21 | 26-Mar-25 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2.75 | 2.67 | 4.57 | 3.05 | 1.43 | 0.71 | 3.20 | 4.27 |
| 21 | 2-Apr-25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2.40 | 2.67 | 5.14 | 3.43 | 1.67 | 0.86 | 3.09 | 4.00 |