Where are you getting this from?
I honestly wouldn’t even take what Blizzard says at heart when you actually test these things for yourself. What they say vs the actually results may be bugs that even they don’t even know is happening. If they do know it’s happening then it may be safe to assume that they just don’t know how to fix it.
Your attempt to try and prove a point to discredit Biceps with “But, Blizzard said” when they keep throwing things in game that even they clearly can’t even keep track of properly isn’t a great one.
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Im not here to explain your results, thats your job.
And if I am misinterpreting what Blizzard has said, then explain the precedent list, and explain how crit chance includes misses?
Biceps is the one that linked the article which the entire article is based on what Blizzard said. You cant say to ignore blizzard while also basing your argument on what Blizzard has said.
By saying I have to ignore what Blizzard has said, while basing your argument on what Blizzard has said, just means I have no way to win thus the entire argument is on a flawed premise. So im going to look at the article that Biceps linked and use the information that it contains. Dont like it, too bad, dont link an article if you dont want people to use it for their argument.
The precedent here was only related to things getting thrown out of the roll options. This isn’t relevant in our situation. Essentially, you have x% chance to the a miss, y% chance to get a crit and then 100-x-y% chance to get a hit. There’s no decision tree or whatever, you roll the die and get the outcome.
I think what they mean is that crits cannot miss. Doesn’t matter much though, since I literally just proved that crits can’t miss.
“The way WoW calculates crit rate is over ALL attacks. Crit rate is not based on hits only. In other words, if you have a 5% crit rate, that 5% chance includes misses.”
I read this as: no matter if you miss attacks, 5% of your total number of attacks will crit.
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What is being thrown out?
How do you know you arent misinterpreting things? I mean you are admitting to interpreting something instead of taking it at face value. 5% crit chance includes misses means that both are being rolled for at the same time.
Its entire speculation that its a singular roll admitted to by the article. “it has been suggested by some players” and this is what you are basing your entire argument on, some players suggestions 14 years ago.
There used to be a concept of a crit cap. As stated in the article I linked, too much crit without sufficient hit and such would throw out some of your crit value.
I tested it in game and showed that crits indeed cannot miss. Doesn’t matter too much what the exact underlying mechanic is, the correct topic here was whether or not crits can miss. Answer is no, crits cannot miss as I have shown.
Heh, a sad fate for this thread.
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A concept, i think, i read that as, nothing actually definitive.
What is being thrown out?
It also says “That is to say, the entries at the top of the table take precedence over the entries below them. This precedence order is from Blizzard, and as such is accurate.”
If you just roll a die once there is no precedence list needed and its just whatever value is assigned by your stats and the enemies stats. But precedence means one outcome overwrites another because its more important. So a miss would take precedence over a crit because its more important to the outcome of the ability or auto since if you miss, you cannot crit because you missed the ability. It wouldnt matter if it said “crit=true” because the miss which is at the top of the list, is more important, it takes precedence over the crit or dodge or parry or anything else on the list. If it the die rolled said miss = false dodge = true then you dodged it no matter what the other outcomes are.
I dont know where they got the idea that it was a singular roll when there is a list of precedence. Unless you can find blizzard saying what it actually is, you are just wasting your time.
Im dont with “i read it as” and “i think” and “you are misinterpreting but my interpretation is right because blizzard writes in code and what they say means something else and I know what it means for no apparent reason” and “concept” which is just an idea.
You are completely misunderstanding what “precedence” means here. The idea is that you have a 1-100 die roll. According to the list, every outcome fills up this 100 range. Miss starts out getting the 1-x numbers, the next ability in the list then gets the x-y numbers etc. Once you’ve filled up to 100, everything left in the list is thrown out. This is what the predence means here.
Again, it’s irrelevant really since I’ve shown by in-game tests the relationship between misses and crits. No need to speculate about exact game mechanics…
This is a well-known concept, not something I just came up with today.
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You dont actually know if its a singular roll or multiple rolls happening at the same time. You are missing crits are you not? 17 crits to be exact. So if the argument is if your crit chance is 16.23% then if you have 2000 attacks 16.23% of those attacks should be crits, but you dont actually have 16.23% of your autos that are crits, you have 15.3% you are missing 1% somwhere. If the chance also includes misses thats where your roughly 1% crits went to, they were overwritten by misses because MISSES TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER CRITS. You cant crit the target if you miss even if it says you would crit your target. You have to determine if you hit the target, its the top priority
Precedence - the condition of being considered more important than someone or something else; priority in importance, order, or rank.
Since a miss is more important than a crit it takes priority in the roll. Tada there is your 17 missing crits.
Not sure if you just ignored my breakdown previously? There’s obviously an expected variance in the number of crits you get. I showed that my result was roughly 1 standard deviation away from the expected average, something that isn’t significantly far away.
As I said, if we assume that crits can miss, we hit 307 crits out of 1684 non-miss attacks, that’s 18.23% crits, significantly higher than our actual crit rate.
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1% missing crits isnt that much either, its 17 missing crits, but again if the premise is that 16.23% should = to 16.23% of all attacks being crits then its not a balanced equation, 16.23% is not equal to 15.3% right? So where did those crits go? You are missing 17 crits. Crits are calculated over all attacks including misses. Thats what that blue post says. So your misses can crit but it doesnt do anything because misses are a higher priority.
For example, if you swing a baseball bat as hard as you can, it doesnt matter if you miss the ball. The strike takes precedence over you swinging your hardest because it never connected.
There is your missing 17 crits, they were missed because its a higher priority. Your misses rolled a crit.
Is this going to be another 2 month long kelliste tangent thread?
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Why do we keep doing this to ourselves?
Im 100% convinced Kelliste is a Blizzard stooge hired to promote disinformation in an effort to avoid taking the time to actually fix frost dks
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How does anyone have the patience to deal with kellitroll
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I previously laid out the exact probabilities of my results given the two hypotheses, what else do you need?
Ever heard about statistics and probability?
Yes I have heard of statistics and probability… so what?
Did you miss the part where it says ALL attacks? It even says in the article that you linked
“The chances listed in your general spellbook tab are absolute percentages. If you have a listed dodge chance of 4.5% then on average 4.5% of ALL melee attacks made agaisnt you by a mob of equal level will be dodged, not merely 4.5% of those melee attacks that didnt miss you.”
That means that the 4.5% includes misses. Misses are a part of ALL attacks. So some of those are going to overlap.
Just like with the crit cap, 30% of ALL attacks will roll a crit, not be a crit because other outcomes take priority over a crit.
You linked the article but dont like the information that the article is giving that is against a singular roll. You cant have 30% of all attacks be crits if you have a singular roll determining the outcome but if you have each outcome having its own roll, then you can have 30% of all attacks be crits because it says that it includes things like misses, and that would also mean it includes dodge and parry back then, and blocks.