So far as I’ve seen every crafted item can be completed at max quality using max quality mats (including max quality optional reagents) plus an illustrious insight. Crafters who have max skill, including from specialization, already exist for every crafted item in the game, since enough k.p. has been collected for that to happen. This reinforces your point 2 but, if you’re willing to buy the illustrious insight and spam in trade chat enough, you don’t need to gamble.