As of now, Frost single target damage is sitting near the bottom amongst all classes (24/36) according to Warcraft Logs on recent Ny-alotha raids. They trail Ret. Paladins by 10% and the leading Affliction Warlock by 40%. They trail Unholy by almost 30%. So Frost is doing poorly in PvE content. It doesn’t look like the PvP scaling is up to snuff either. There are 5 players in top 500 of 3v3 with Frost as their current loadout, 0 in top 500 of 2v2, and 2 in top 500 of 10v10. Unholy is like over 90% of representation for the class, which could be expected given their current PvE performance (I’m fine with Unholy doing well, that aspect should stay). But Frost as less than 1/2% of top 1500 spots of 3 PvP modes amongst all classes? Suffer well, indeed.
For myself as a hardcore casual, I get the most damage in PvP from Frost Fever in large groups (Battlegrounds), and Chill Streak in smaller groups (Arena). My single target damage is pretty poor. I typically Pillar of Frost/Empower Rune Weapon, Howling Blast to apply Frost Fever, start Obliterate/Frost Strike rotation, Blood of the Enemy a few seconds in, launch a Chill Streak, and hopefully I land enough critical strikes with Obliterate/Frost Strike to get the Icy Citadel/2nd PoF overlap with Icecap, then finish with Cold Heart/Chains of Ice and Frost Wyrm’s Fury. This whole rotations takes at least 15 seconds. Buuuut, an uninterrupted rotation rarely occurs. Most of the time, I have to launch Frostwyrm’s Fury with only Icy Citadel, Pillar of Frost is on cooldown, I can’t get the overlap. My Chains of Ice often has to be applied much earlier and more often to keep target(s) in range or ward off another target, I generally can’t sit on a utility for Cold Heart buildup. I don’t use BoS in PvP and rarely see it. It’s too easy to neutralize from what I’ve seen.
I generally lose to Paladins one on one. They hit too hard, heal too much, and have just as much utility as me <-This last one favors the Paladin in my opinion because Holy Power (buildup) isn’t on a timer, it will still be there indefinitely when they break out of a cc as opposed to Icy Citadel and Pillar of Frost expiring if you’re stunned, cc’d, or whatever for too long. Kiting doesn’t help me either, because Frost isn’t a strong ranged dps, it’s primarily melee. Frost ranged attacks aren’t enough to outpace all the Hammers/Blades paladins will throw along with their healing. For me, it’s usually a choice between face tanking and dying quicker while the Pal. walks away with like half their health or take longer to die kiting while the Pal. walks away with near full health.
So, yeah, Frost single target damage kind of sucks. The Obliterate nerfs hurt all the high damage damage builds significantly. We can only pray the rank 2 abilities combined with the right covenant conduits going into Shadowlands will allow Frost to catch up to the rest of the pack. Who really knows why Blizzard sets their coefficients the way they do outside of money. I kind of agree with what I read someone say in response to Blizzard’s supposed vision for Death knights as this slow, menacing force that hit hard- “…we just aren’t seeing the hit hard part” for Frost.