Boss Attacks and You: Beware Math Inside

Disclaimer: This is a math-laden post whose details will be largely unimportant to 99% of you. That’s fine. The intent is to provide general information that can be used while also providing the necessary support for that general information. A TLDR Version will be available at the end of the post.

The three critical roles of PvE are Tanking, Healing, and DPS, in no particular order of importance or necessity. This post is mostly for the Tanks and Healers, but does apply to some DPS as it relates to debuffing a Boss. Bosses hit Tanks, and harder Bosses tend to hit Tanks harder than easier Bosses. Available to players are number of ways to modify how hard the Boss can hit the Tank, either by making the Tank harder to kill with more Health, Armor, Resistance, and/or Avoidance, or by making the Boss hit less hard or less often. For the following discussion, debuffing the Boss’s damage will be focused upon.

  • ATTACK POWER MODIFICATIONS

A Boss can have its Attack Power modified by a number of abilities, in which the Boss either gains or loses a fixed amount of Attack Power. A completely untalented Rank 5 Demoralizing Shout reduces the Boss’ Attack Power by 134 for 30 seconds. A Curse of Recklessness will increase the Boss’ Attack Power by 90 for 2 minutes. However, as anyone paying attention will note, applying Demoralizing Shout doesn’t make Broodlord Lashlayer only hit for 134 less damage, but a value significantly greater than that. Furthermore, that same debuff reduces the damage of Nefarian by an even greater amount, but Razorgore by a much smaller amount. So how does Attack Power work for a Boss?

  • BOSS ATTACK FORMULA

An NPC operates somewhat similarly to a player in that they have two things that feed their autoattacks: a weapon and Attack Power. This is based upon the fact that some mobs can be disarmed, which lowers their damage output by a decent margin, and mobs can have their Attack Power reduced up to a specific point. Bosses typically cannot be disarmed with the notable exception of each rider of the Four Horsemen for which I need additional testing. The reason we know that NPCs have a limited amount of Attack Power is because after a certain amount of reduction, based upon the level of the NPC, additional Attack Power reduction simply provides no further benefit. As I said before, this is similar to a player character losing all their AP but still having a weapon to swing for base damage.

Where NPCs and players differ is how Attack Power scales our damage. Players receive 1 DPS for every 14 Attack Power, insomuch as autoattacks are concerned without any other class mechanics or special skills/passives. NPCs receive an altogether more complicated amount that is a direct multiplier on their base damage. Based upon past testing of old and present Classic testing, fully reducing an NPC’s AP reduces their damage output by ~30%. It should be noted here that while these formulas are very close, the game’s tendency to round any decimal value up means the combat log has a built-in error range. Further, the amount of Attack Power a level 63 Boss has is ~270 Attack Power. This means that the damage formula for a Boss is:

WeaponDamage * (1 + 0.15873% * AttackPower) = AverageAutoAttack

WeaponDamage is the median base weapon damage.
AverageAutoAttack is the median AP modified damage.

Further, like players, NPC weapons have a damage range that gives them the variability you see when Broodlord smacks you between 2,200 and 3,100 damage per swing. This variance value does not scale with Attack Power, but will benefit from other mechanics we will discuss later. That means if the median damage is increased by a Curse of Recklessness, the boss won’t have a wider variance than before, but rather the same. The formula for NPC weapon variance is:

WeaponVariance = +/- (WeaponDamage / 5)

In other words, if a Boss has a base weapon damage of 2,000, they have a range of damage between 1,600 and 2,400 if they have no Attack Power.

  • SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN

Using these equations, I was able to determine what every boss in BWL has for their base weapon damage and variance. I can explain this process in a subsequent post but suffice it to say it only takes a parse or two for me to find the answer. If a Boss has a known swing damage and has special attacks that are based upon their weapon swing (remember Broodlord Lashlayer), then there is no guesswork as to just how much damage can be dealt by the Boss. An autoattack followed up by an almost immediate Mortal Strike isn’t a nebulous “big hit”, but a determinable value that can be overcome with proper gear, buffs, and debuffs. So to start, here are the relative damage reductions from nothing to a single debuff:

No Debuffs --> CoR: 10.000% Damage Increase
No Debuffs --> Screech: 11.111% Damage Decrease
No Debuffs --> 0/5 DS: 14.889% Damage Decrease
No Debuffs --> 5/5 DS: 20.889% Damage Decrease
No Debuffs --> 0/5 DR: 13.556% Damage Decrease
No Debuffs --> 5/5 DR: 19.000% Damage Decrease

Demoralizing Shout and Demoralizing Roar do not stack, but each of them respectively will stack with Curse of Recklessness and Screech. So to put a very fine point on matters, here is the comparison between just having Curse of Recklessness up and also applying other debuffs:

CoR --> CoR+Screech: 10.101% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+Screech+0/5 DS: 23.636% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+Screech+5/5 DS: 29.091% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+Screech+0/5 DR: 22.424% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+Screech+5/5 DR: 27.374% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+0/5 DS: 13.535% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+5/5 DS: 18.990% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+0/5 DR: 12.323% Damage Decrease
CoR --> CoR+5/5 DR: 17.273% Damage Decrease

Even with just an untalented Demoralizing Roar, your Tank will take 12.323% less damage over what he or she would take if you only left Curse of Recklessness up, which is significant to say the least. Next up are the BWL Boss “weapons” and their variance:

Razorgore: 1960 base +/- 392
Vaelastrasz: 3150 base +/- 630
Broodlord: 2240 +/- 448
Firemaw: 2240 +/- 448
Ebonroc: 2240 +/- 448
Flamegor: 2240 +/- 448
Chrommagus: 2800 +/- 560
Nefarian: 3150 +/- 630

Each boss has a base swing timer of 2 seconds, but that will vary dramatically due to parry-haste, Thunder Clap/Thunderfury debuffs, and Boss specials that interrupt or delay attacks. Yes, this means that Broodlord and the Drake bosses hit equally hard on a per-hit basis. Also remember, these are the BASE values, as if the Boss had no Attack Power at all.

  • PRACTICAL EXERCISE

Let us assume we have McBearFace ready to go face off against BWL as the Main Tank. McBearFace has managed to acquire for himself 8,100 Health and 10,000 Armor after accounting for all buffs, consumables, and gear. McBearFace is about to charge into Broodlord Lashlayer and hopes he can survive the encounter. 10,000 Armor gives McBearFace 63.472% Damage Reduction. Figuring that this is sufficient, McBearFace races in, applies no Demoralizing Roar in favor of spamming Maul, and starts Tanking just as a Warlock applies Curse of Recklessness. Broodlord’s response will be:

Median = 2240 * (1 + 0.15873% * (270 + 90)) = 3520
Variance = +/- (2240 / 5) = +/- 448
LoRaw = 3520 - 448 = 3072
HiRaw = 3520 + 448 = 3968
ActualLo = 3072 * (1 - 63.472%) = 1122.143 
ActualHi = 3968 * (1 - 63.472%) = 1449.434

McBearFace is feeling good, Broodlord is barely tickling his 8.1k Health pool with these 1.2k and 1.3k melee hits, and his Healers are practically bored keeping him alive. Then Broodlord goes to land his Mortal Strike, a 500% weapon attack:

MS Low = 1122.143 * 500% = 5610.714
MS Hi = 1449.434 * 500% = 7247.172

Because Broodlord was feeling particularly irritated about a weird looking bear attacking him, he hit using the highest part of his swing damage. Luckily for McBearFace, he has 8.1k Health and would survive with a mere 852 Health. UNFORTUNATELY due to parry-haste and Broodlord’s general lack of good manners, Broodlord performed a standard autoattack a mere 0.2 sec before the Mortal Strike, and it landed, killing poor McBearFace before either he or his Healers had time to think, let alone react, regardless of how lightly that autoattack was. The raid wipes and they try a second time. Since a melee can be followed immediately by a Mortal Strike, McBearFace determines that he can potentially take the following damage in a near instant:

MS Hi + ActualHi * 2 = 7247.172 + (1449.434 * 2) = 10146.04

The actual hit can be double because McBearFace isn’t Defense capped. With just CoR up, it would be impossible for McBearFace to survive a >10k damage spike with his meager 8k health. However, quickly doing the math by adding in a Hunter’s pet’s Screech and his friend Warrior’s 0/5 Demoralizing Shout:

Median = 2240 * (1 + 0.15873% * (270 + 90 - 134 - 100)) = 2688
HiRaw = 2688 + 448 = 3136 
ActualHi = 3136 * (1 - 63.472%) = 1145.521
MS Hi = 1145.521 * 500% = 5727.604
_
MS Hi + ActualHi * 2 = 5727.604 + (1145.521 * 2) = 8018.646

Should the absolute worst occur, and Broodlord critically strikes McBearFace for its highest damage and then immediately swings an MS for its highest damage… dear little McBearFace will live with 81 Health. This doesn’t provide much margin for error and he had better stay topped off, but the severe worst-case-scenario shouldn’t ever be fatal, all because two debuffs were added for an otherwise undergeared Druid.

  • TLDR VERSION

Bosses hit hard, notably when they line up their autoattacks with special abilities. Tanks are most likely to spike and die in BWL due to Broodlord’s MS/Auto combo or any of the Drake’s triple Thrash/Shadow Flame combo. The Drakes are actually more dangerous than Broodlord, with Firemaw as the most. However, if Tanks are dying, even an undergeared Tank can be made significantly sturdier (15-30% more) by ensuring constant application of Demoralizing Shout/Roar, Screech, and/or dropping Curse of Recklessness altogether.

If you have questions, comments, concerns, feel free.

56 Likes

I appreciate the math-free TL;DR.

3 Likes

Well thought out informative post, OP. Thank you for putting this together.

5 Likes

It’s so simple, even a shaman could tank Blackwing Lair.

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This is the kind of gem post that will appear in the google searches in 10 years for the wow classic “back to the basics” for the very curious players.

Good work OP.

8 Likes

I’ll have a post on this (and all other classes) soon, along with viable vs optimal, who is what, and parsing.

I’m rounding out my spreadsheet and report crawling so I’m at the point where I can start putting things out for the Internet to chew up and correct and criticize. This is actually my favorite point in the research end of theorycrafting. The Internet is very very eager to disprove so it makes for fantastic improvements to my work.

We Already Know, If You Joined The Shaman Discord You Can Find The Info lmao

Independent research is better than regurgitation, and besides, the Shaman discord lacks substantive support. The Warrior discord had the most up-to-date info and parses for me to crawl for more info, but even it didn’t have this completed. The 20% variance was something I found on my own looking at Magmadar and confirmed with Vael and Broodlord from my own parsing checks and those on the Warrior discord.

Don’t worry.

1 Like

You seem to know your formulas, but let’s test that knowledge:

You—a gnome warrior—are attacking a level 62 Lava Surger from the front using your dual wielded axes.

Given these parameters, what is the chance that your attacks are blocked (rounded up to the nearest 1/10th?)

Answer example 14.2

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5.0%.

I’m pretty sure NPC Block is independent of level and doesn’t scale up or down. It also isn’t for a very significant amount either, but I’d have to check and see if it creates a critical hit depression above and beyond the usual for anyone attacking from the front.

I’ll need to research that. Thanks!

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Don’t bother with the first question, it was a dumb question anyway. Here’s a new one:

You–a troll warrior–are attacking a level 58 Lava Reaver from behind using your dual wielded fists.

Given these parameters, what is the chance that your attacks are dodged (rounded up to the nearest 1/10th)?

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Interesting. Pretty well written if someone like myself is able to understand.

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LMAO indeed… on randomly capitalizing all the words in this sentence??

Great job OP!

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3.0%.

1% for being levels under (0.5% each) and another 1% for weapon skill excess (0.1% per 1 skill).

I hope that works that way going down in levels.

Thats a lot of math.

But it still won’t stop broodlord from 3 hitting a tank in 1 batch.

Had 2 tanks get global’d by him last raid, logs even show it, 10k damage in .4 seconds.

Amp weakness instead of using recklessness

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The goal isn’t to stop the worst combo from occurring since that’s not really possible. The goal is to avoid outright dying to it.

What did they get hit with? Melee+Blastwave+Mortal Strike?

Also could you link the log?

Since Curse of Weakness doesn’t impact Attack Power, does it stack with the other modifiers like Demoralizing Shout/Roar? For some reason I’m under the impression that they do not stack, but that could be later expansions I’m remembering.

Yes. And the difference in DTPS on our tanks was very noticable. Enough so that I might consider Improved weakness on later raid tiers.

We went from having tanks get gibbed(using CoR), to having very minimal issues, after swapping to Amped Weakness.

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i have 10500 armor pre buffs and just shy of 8k hp with buffs and can easiky reach 10k if i flask. my glaring issue as a bear tank is complete lack of healing. i die over 12 seconds not instagib.

what you didnt account for was the extra 25% armor from a crit heal or the pre 2k armor potion which puts us at the 75% armor cap. btw you can dodge mortal strike so get in there rogues!

which is why its significantly more important to gear threat over effective health pool because it can all be tanked just fine and dandy with buffs and consumes to make up for any lack of general health.

That’s rolling the dice. You take the buffer of hp not because you need it all the time, but because when the stars align against you, without it you will die.

1 Like