Blizzard says 80%+ will quit and that's why layering is needed

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

Without a crowd, you’ll be 2hrs in the initial area and 8+ in the first zone. With Vanilla level of crowding, you’ll probably double that.

But that is Vanilla, and how it should be. An MMO without population is not “massively”.

[Purjery-muradin (Purjery)]

If Classic had it’s own sub then Blizzard would better understand how many people would play Classic, but as it shared with retail WoW there really isn’t any way to tell if 5% of the retail crowd will pop into classic or 50%.

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding you, but why do so many people feel those playing retail won’t like Classic? The two games are nearly completely different.

[Tyrgrim-thrall]

Who at Blizzard said that? And when?

[Purjery-muradin (Purjery)]

Blizzard is right. A lot of live players will try classic, realize they cant do this or that and quit

Blizzard never said such a thing. Again what’s up with the opinion people who play wow now won’t like classic? People who play now might not like BFA, but they are hoping it gets better. Or you know what some people might really enjoy BFA and they might enjoy Classic, too.

[Purjery-muradin (Purjery)]

i doubt there will be 400k concurrent players within 6 months

Based on what evidence?

[Purjery-muradin (Purjery)]

But that is Vanilla, and how it should be

No, no, no. It should not be so crowded it makes the experience terrible. Again Human starting zone was terrible on the first stress test. It literally took me 5 hours to leave the starting zone. No one who didn’t already love the game would put up with that crap. And if you want everyone who’s never played wow to leave that’s the way to do it. There is nothing positive about it taking an hour to do a kill quest.

[Heralf-aegwynn]

I don’t believe laying has anything to do with people leaving the game after trying it out.

Yes it does. They don’t want to have 30 servers at launch that are all fairly populated then a month in: only like 5 servers are populated.

[Wraak-uldum]

That dropout rate article is super old. And classic is meant to appeal to some of the 12 million players that don’t play anymore. The hype of this game means the servers will be busting in the noob zones for the first few weeks and I don’t wanna sit around 15 mins trying to kill a kobal spawn cause I’m swimming in a sea of players.

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

It should not be so crowded it makes the experience terrible.

Yes yes yes. It should be the experience we had in Vanilla using the same population caps.

The strong will prevail and get ahead of the pack. That is part of Vanilla and every expansion launch.

[Xjum-skullcrusher]

This model is also born out in every single “WoW Killer” and most major MMO’s since WoW’s launch.

You’ve simply gotten use to lousy games, that’s all. This might surprise you but it is possible for a MMO to be a good game that attracts players long term. Difficult, but possible.

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

This might surprise you but it is possible for a MMO to be a good game that attracts players long term.

Aside from WoW 15 years ago, what MMO has started out small and constantly grown for 8 years? Honestly interested.

[Lyynx-area-52]

Didn’t you just say above that no one was playing BfA, which is it now?

[Celessi-turalyon]

If Classic had it’s own sub then Blizzard would better understand how many people would play Classic, but as it shared with retail WoW there really isn’t any way to tell if 5% of the retail crowd will pop into classic or 50%.

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding you, but why do so many people feel those playing retail won’t like Classic? The two games are nearly completely different.

Because it has to be an us vs them mentality to them.

[Xjum-skullcrusher]

Aside from WoW 15 years ago, what MMO has started out small and constantly grown for 8 years? Honestly interested.

There hasn’t been a MMO that’s 1/3 as good as Vanilla/TBC/WotLK released ever. I’m saying that if a new game as good as one of those titles came out that it would be a success. You’re saying it wouldn’t. Why? Because terrible games failed?

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

Here’s the numbers for old-school Runescape. The closest amalgam to WoW. Numbers need to be scaled up because WoW is more popular, but its a similar premise.

First Day: ~90,000
Within a few months: ~20,000
5 years later: ~60,000

Not sure what happened in Oct 2019, to spike the numbers to 100k, but the original graph is clear.

http://www.misplaceditems.com/rs_tools/graph/?display=avg&interval=day&total=1

There hasn’t been a MMO that’s 1/3 as good as Vanilla/TBC/WotLK released ever. I’m saying that if a new game as good as one of those titles came out that it would be a success. You’re saying it wouldn’t. Why? Because terrible games failed?

So you’re basically claiming unicorn status for the re-release of Classic because 15 years ago it worked. And you don’t think that the market has changed in that time due to all those games pushing different goals?

[Paeldryth-hyjal (Paeldryth)]

So you’re basically claiming unicorn status for the re-release of Classic because 15 years ago it worked. And you don’t think that the market has changed in that time due to all those games pushing different goals?

Lots of Vanilla lovers just aren’t able to see outside their tiny bubble. If they like Vanilla, everyone else will.

They also forget that 15 years ago Vanilla wasn’t competing with tons of F2P MMOs, MOBAs, and Battle Royales.

Classic will capture a fan base, but it isn’t going to change the face of the MMO market like they want it to.

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

Classic will capture a fan base, but it isn’t going to change the face of the MMO market like they want it to.

I have a suspicion it might, but not overnight like they think. Sustained growth once the tourists leave, is going to be far more indicative than any “record numbers” on launch.

[Bricklethumb-anvilmar]

I agree with this statement.

The biggest concern I have is the definition of “tourists” by some.

I can’t speak for you El, but for me, a tourist is someone from the live game that checks it out and just finds its not for them and leaves.

I am afraid some other vested parties might label “ALL” who play live or have played live or had even seen a video about live. Or saw the warcraft movie. . or. . well ya get my point ;-). That they are ALL tourists.

At least that is my read.

I am being optimistic and hope we get a huge conversion rate. Mainly because I know how much I love classic. Why wouldn’t anyone else?

[Eloraell-moon-guard]

I can’t speak for you El, but for me, a tourist is someone from the live game that checks it out and just finds its not for them and leaves.

I’m expecting almost every active retail player to try out the game. And not be interested at least at first during the crush. They may come back later and poke around when things are a little less crazy.

[Bricklethumb-anvilmar]

That’s a fair assessment.

That optimism in me hopes for a good portion falling in love right off the bat, but time will tell.