Here’s the thing. Everything Blizzard plans is around quarterly sub numbers.
Beta
- You have to have a sub to get a Beta invite.
- We’re coming up on the end of a Quarter (Q2) at the end of this month.
- People who want to try beta have to stay subbed.
- If they don’t get a beta invite, many will probably unsub till prepatch.
- If Beta doesn’t start till July, they have to stay subbed until into July which is Q3.
Therefore starting Beta in July keeps people around into Q3’s monthly sub numbers.
Beta will need to be 2-3 months long, but lets go with the shorter value.
Pre Patch
- Pre-patch is when people wanting to play Wrath will re-sub.
- Since we’ve already blocked out July and August for Beta, earliest it can be is September (Q3).
- For those who didn’t care about Beta but wanted to go in Wrath, they want to capture some of their sub in Q3, so they’ll announce the pre-patch starting sometime in September (probably middle).
Therefore having a mid September Q3 pre-patch means people sub into Q3 even if they weren’t hanging around for Beta.
Launch
- Pre-Patch has to be 4 weeks minimum. They’ve already committed to a longer than TBC (2 weeks) pre-patch, and anything short of 4 weeks will be seen as betraying that.
- So release some time in October, which just happens to be into Q4.
So a big boost of Subs at the end of Q3 leading into a big Sub boost at the start of Q4.
Also in Q4 or Q1 2023, the focus shifts to the Dragonflight alpha/beta with a late Q2 2023 release.
EDIT: With Dragonflight coming out by the end of the year, this timeframe may become overlaid or compressed.