exactly… so I did the probability calculations and posted the results of the math…
So the odds of getting 1 binding can be calculated multiple ways, I chose the simplest way using 40 clears and 2 bosses with individual chances at the binding with a 4% drop. OR 80 chances with a 4% chance
(80 c 1) * (.96^79) * (.04^1) = 12.72%
but you could also use the odds of getting 1 garr binding and 0 geddon bindings + the odds of 1 geddon binding and 0 garr bindings(these are the same chances so I am just gonna multiply it by 2 cause thats how numbers work)
2* ((40 c 1)(.96^39)(.04^1)* (.96^40)) = 12.72%
wow that number looks familiar…
and because this is math and I used the generic formulas you can plug in any individual number and get the odds for that many bindings…
Incorrect logic, just because you do more MCs doesn’t mean your chances of seeing one go up. It’s a flat 3% every time. you will always have a 3% and nothing more.
Because of the Law of Large Numbers, as you seed more and more instances it becomes more probable that you will see bindings. Outcomes are still all equally likely.
It’s impossible to calculate odds as there isn’t a finite number of bindings.
Bad luck protection? Let’s keep the welfare systems in BFA thanks.
It is not impossible to calculate the odds… seeing as I just calculated them,
but considering this is the 44th reset of MC and I discounted the first 4 for people to level and to make the math easy, any individual char only has the potential for 80 bindings because they can only run 1 MC per week and there are 2 bosses that can drop the bindings and the bindings are an independent drop chance and there is no bad luck protection.
This is all pretty basic statistics…
It is fairly basic, and you are overthinking it a lot. The odds do not become greater the more you seed.
what you’re describing is law of averages…nonsense
SLLN is the one that says as your number of trials or sample size go to infinity, the sample mean will converge to expectation (whatever true probability blizz coded in for droprate)
And yes you can estimate binomial probability REALLY easily, You just have to assume the droprate point estimate from atlas loot data is acquired from a large enough sample size.
you have to be a troll at this point…
because you have said both…
AND
But needless to say the math works.
If you run an instance over and over your odds of getting that item over time increase but each individual run still has the same odds…
So if you run MC 1 time you have a 4% chance to get a garr binding
if you run it 100 times you have a 98.3% chance to get at least 1 garr binding but on run 101 you still have a 4% chance to get a binding regardless of how many runs you have done and how many bindings you have gotten.
If you don’t have enough bindings, I think it’s a get gud problem. I’m only joking! Why you mad, it’s only game. 
we have… 5 baron bindings. zero garr bindings. lol.
That is both really unlucky and really lucky…
using the 40 MC clears and 4% drop rate…
5 bindings off 1 boss is 1.61% at least 5 bindings would be 2.10%
And the odds of not getting at least 1 pair of bindings in those same runs would be 35.26%
And if anyone would like to check the odds for there particular drops of bindings…
Total number of Bindings
| # |
exact |
at least |
| 0 |
3.82% |
100% |
| 1 |
12.72% |
96.18% |
| 2 |
20.94% |
83.46% |
| 3 |
22.68% |
62.52% |
| 4 |
18.19% |
39.84% |
| 5 |
11.52% |
21.65% |
| 6 |
6.00% |
10.13% |
| 7 |
2.64% |
4.13% |
| 8 |
1.01% |
1.49% |
| 9 |
0.34% |
0.48% |
| 10 |
0.10% |
0.14% |
Bindings from a specific Boss
| # |
exact |
|
at least |
| 0 |
19.54% |
|
100% |
| 1 |
32.56% |
|
80.46% |
| 2 |
26.46% |
|
47.90% |
| 3 |
13.96% |
|
21.45% |
| 4 |
5.38% |
|
7.48% |
| 5 |
1.61% |
|
2.10% |
Pairs of Bindings
| # |
exact |
at least |
| 0 |
35.26% |
100% |
| 1 |
41.80% |
64.74% |
| 2 |
18.35% |
22.94% |
| 3 |
4.04% |
4.59% |
| 4 |
0.52% |
0.55% |
| 5 |
0.04% |
0.03% |
My guild tops everything:
Clearing MC every week.
NO bindings
NO Eyes
Literally 0 legendary drops D:
Edit: Also no 55 healing enchant
I see your 1/0 and raise you 5/0.
That’s right, 5 garr bindings, 0 geddon.
(One of our tanks started running with another group on his warrior since he wasn’t first in line for bindings, and managed to get the other binding with that group though. He still ran with us on an alt).
Oooooof.
That’s… that’s just painful.
My guild has 0 bindings and we’ve had 2 groups going for a while now. Probably like 45-50 MC clears?
RNG is what it is.
We’ve gotten 3 Eyes though.
Any other guild not have any Eye of Sulfuras either?
We’ve been clearing since 1 week after hitting 60, however many weeks that is (40-50?) and still haven’t gotten a TF (only one half of the bindings). Other guilds on the server have like 5+ now and/or got both bindings in one night. It’s kind of silly.
Try seeing two of the same binding drop. Tfury’s acquisition is the worst of the worst of all legendary items in WoW, offset only by how easy it is to clear MC. Imagine if clearing MC was on par with trying to tackle Sunwell; you’d see less tfurys than we saw thori’dals.
We have five raid groups and only got one Thunderfury a month ago.
The guy with the binding in his bag since the first month of Classic has been trying not to die inside.
Oh yeah, and some of the other guilds on the server are rocking 3+ Thunderfurys on Fury Warriors and Rogues too.
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